The final tier of starting pitchers is usually reserved for the scrubs of the world, but when you look at the table for the aggregate tier one, tier two, and tier three guys you will see that the tier three guys actually had more starts and more innings than the tier two guys. This would seem be to counterintuitive because pitchers that perform worse (as seen by their FRA) would likely pitch less than their tier two counterparts.

Five of the 16 tier three starters cleared 200 innings a year ago. The indication here is that several of these guys were tier one and two pitchers earlier in their careers. Either they had a down season or they have been steadily declining over a number of years. Therefore, a number of these pitchers were owned in a majority of leagues and some of them were probably directly responsible for their owners going in the tank fairly early on.

So, the question for those pitchers is whether 2013 was an aberration or simply a predictor of things to come. Pitchers, more than any other position, are hard to predict. Each one seems to have a hidden number of innings that marks their maximum efficiency and once they surpass those innings, everything goes downhill fast.

It should be noted that pitching has been on the rise in general. Tier three doesn’t necessarily represent the worst of pitching because you had to hurl at least 100 innings to qualify. Teams aren’t going to let guys get to 100 innings if they are completely miserable. Yet, even with the lower success rate of these pitchers, they still surpassed a two to one strikeout to walk ratio by a pretty healthy margin. So, some of these guys deserve a look even if they would fall below 80 on a mixed league starter depth chart.

CC Sabathia—New York Yankees

ERA: 4.78                                                                             SO/9: 7.5

FRA: 4.95                                                                             BB/9: 2.8

INN: 211.0                                                                           BABIP: .308

GB%: 47%                                                                            LOB%: 67.4%

Let’s look at the positives first. His BABIP and left on base percentage indicate that he should bounce back some this year. He also lost a ton of weight coming into the season, so he is in the best shape of his life. Should he remain healthy, he could potentially surpass 3000 innings this season and that by itself probably tells the whole story. We might just be looking at a pitcher that is coming to the end of his rope. It has been a quite a career though and Sabathia is at least good for heavy innings and a decent strikeout rate.

R.A. Dickey—Toronto Blue Jays

ERA: 4.21                                                                             SO/9: 7.1

FRA: 4.81                                                                             BB/9: 2.8

INN: 224.7                                                                           BABIP: .265

GB%: 42%                                                                            LOB%: 73.2%

expect regression, we can probably guess that it won’t regress fully to the league average. That being said, the Mets made out like bandits when they traded Dickey away. His 2010-2012 walk rates were historically low for knuckleball pitchers and unlikely to continue. The 2012 strikeout rate was also unrealistic. So, a fall from grace was inevitable looking back. He’s still a very solid pitcher, but more of a fantasy bottom of the rotation guy.

Scott Feldman—Houston Astros

ERA: 3.86                                                                             SO/9: 6.5

FRA: 4.57                                                                             BB/9: 2.8

INN: 181.7                                                                           BABIP: .258

GB%: 52%                                                                            LOB%: 69.4%

Feldman might be the hottest fantasy guy out there amongst marginal guys. He has 0.44 ERA to this point in the season and he signed a big three year contract with the Astros. The problem is that a lot of people get overly excited when a guy signs a contract. Somehow this validates his abilities in some way and he suddenly becomes better than what he really is. The first three starts are a result of a .119 BABIP. He will come back to earth and he will become the Scott Feldman we all know and love. That’s an average pitcher capable of pitching innings when healthy.

Jered Weaver—Los Angeles Angels

ERA: 3.27                                                                             SO/9: 6.8

FRA: 4.52                                                                             BB/9: 2.2

INN: 154.3                                                                           BABIP: .268

GB%: 32%                                                                            LOB%: 78.5

The key number for Weaver is not shown here, but it goes along with the rest of the numbers. In 2006, Weaver’s average fastball was 90.2 MPH (according to Fangraphs). Now it is 85.9. His slider, curve ball and change-up velocities have virtually remained unchanged. When you lack top end velocity, you need to change speeds in order to continue to miss bats. Eventually, the slippage on his stuff will catch up with him. Furthermore, his BABIP and LOB% both indicate a significant regression is in order. Buyer beware on Weaver.

Joe Saunders—Texas Rangers

ERA: 5.26                                                                             SO/9: 5.3

FRA: 5.06                                                                             BB/9: 3.0

INN: 183.0                                                                           BABIP: .332

GB%: 54%                                                                            LOB%: 68.7%

File this under the kind of pitcher we would expect to see in the third tier. He won 16 games back in 2009 and has an 89-82 record over the course of his career. Yet, his presence on the Rangers staff indicates how desperate they are for healthy pitching and not how good he is at the moment. He was a viable fantasy starter in 2011 and 2012, but those days are gone now.