First base is weird on draft day. Or at least it has become that way in recent years. Many of us still expect bundles of production, but it isn’t quite the case anymore. The position used to be full of boppers. Thirty homers or more was nearly automatic from the position in shallow leagues. Offense, however, is down everywhere. And first base isn’t immune.

In 2013, only six players with first base eligibility hit 30 or more home runs. Those players were Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Adam Dunn, and Brandon Moss. The position has changed a little, and I believe our expectations have to change as well.

For standard leagues, I have first base ranked like this: Goldie, Edwin, Votto, and Davis. Fielder is fifth. Unless I’m able to land one of those top four guys I’m waiting for a little bit to pick my first baseman. It isn’t black and white though, I believe in a Pujols bounce-back, but unless he’s available in round four or five I’ll miss him, too.

In standard and OBP leagues, Brandon Belt seems undervalued. Perhaps it’s fatigue. Perhaps it’s the park he plays in. Likely, it’s a combination of both, with a little bit of old expectations for the position creeping in. Belt, despite only leaving the yard 17 times in 2013, finished the season as the number 12 first baseman. Even after that year, Belt is being drafted on average with pick 155 in ESPN leagues – 17th overall at first base. Anthony Rizzo, a popular breakout candidate, is being drafted 50 picks earlier. Rizzo does have a much higher upside, but he isn’t without risk. Matt Adams, who might not have a job if he doesn’t hit, is in front of him. Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Jose Abreu are as well. Much too rich for me.

Belt’s swing changes, which allowed him to hit for more power, along with his solid production in other categories, made me rank him twelfth at the position. I believe 20 home runs are in the cards. Throw in positive contributions in every other category and we’re likely looking at a top-10 option come year end.

Fangraphs’ and The Fantasy Fix’s Ben Duronio wrote earlier that Belt is more or less and lighter version of Eric Hosmer. And I agree with him. Hosmer may rank higher come season’s end, but I’d bet on Belt not being far behind, and much cheaper on draft day.

Mike Napoli is a name that greatly interests me in OBP formats. Sure, his BABiP was abnormally high last season. That isn’t very likely to repeat itself – in fact regression is baked into his projections listed below. That caveat aside, his lowest OBP of the past three seasons has been .343.

Now that he is officially done with catching – thanks to hip issues – playing time should be easier to come by. After only suiting up for 113 and 108 games in 2011 and 2012, respectively, he appeared in 139 last season. His HR total decreased by one, but every other counting stat increased a significant amount thanks to the extra playing time. His 92 RBI – a career high – ranked ninth at the position, and Boston’s lineup should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs despite Jacoby Ellsbury’s absence.

In an OBP league last season, Napoli was comfortably a top-10 option. Projection systems – saving PECOTA – are a little bearish on him this season in comparison, but I’ll take the over on ZiPS and Steamer because I believe they’re a little light on plate appearances given the move to first base. PECOTA’s projections seem close to what I expect, although I’d probably peg 25 homers a little more reasonable expectation even though the system is infinitely more intelligent than I am.

Napoli’s contact rate is an issue to watch going forward. The rate sank to a career low last season, and his swinging strike surged to a career high. That being said, there is still value to be had. Napoli is currently coming off of the board 17th among first baseman in NFBC leagues – which have a standard set-up.

Missing on the top tier of first baseman isn’t a death knell this season. If you’re unable to land one of the top 4 — or Pujols at a bargain – don’t panic. I’d be just as happy using those picks on other positions and pairing someone like Belt or Napoli with another undervalued bat such as Brandon Moss, Nick Swisher, or Adam Dunn (OBP leagues only). Jose Abreu has avoided the Tanaka treatment and hasn’t seen his ADP shoot through the roof yet, currently at 131, so there seems to be value there as well. If you’re able to run platoons, Justin Morneau is an option. And if Kendrys Morales actually signs, he should out produce his cost fairly easily.

The position isn’t quite what it used to be. That’s fine. After the first four players, maybe six if you include Fielder and Freeman, I don’t see enough separation to take a second tier first baseman too quickly. The drop-off from guys like Hosmer to Belt or Napoli (in OBP) just isn’t large enough for me to go that route.

As always, thanks to Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference, and Fangraphs for the data used above.