2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 17 Free Agent Fixes
With a few closers rumored to be on the trading block, a trio of relievers get the nod this week as worthwhile adds in fantasy leagues. They are joined by a starting pitcher who looks to be rounding back into form since his activation from the disabled list, a third baseman changing leagues and greatly upgrading ballparks, and an outfielder thrust into an injury riddled lineup.
Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox
Ownership: ESPN: 36.7%, Yahoo!: 51%, CBS: 74%
Since returning from the disabled list in June, Buchholz is throwing his fourseam fastball and sinker with the type of giddy up he did while mowing down hitters early last year according to Brooks Baseball’s PITCHf/x data. More exciting still is that his changeup has been a filthy bat misser. As colleague Chris Garosi pointed out that Buchholz was quoted in early July discussing that he regained the feel of his changeup, and that would go a long way in explaining the huge spike whiffs.
The Red Sox hurler was hit around some in his last start allowing 10 hits in six innings, but he failed to walk any batters and managed to tally 12 whiffs on 104 pitches thrown (11.5 percent whiff rate). Over the last 30 days FanGraphs has him totaling a 3.76 FIP in five starts spanning 35.2 innings with a silly 0.8 percent walk rate and 19.4 percent strikeout rate. If he can get back to inducing groundballs at a slightly higher rate, something his work in the past and in his last start suggest he can do, his upside exceeds his 3.76 FIP. Buchholz should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues, and he has the type of talent that could force him onto roster even in those formats.
Dale Thayer, RP, San Diego Padres
Ownership: ESPN: 1.2%, Yahoo!: 2%, CBS: 3%
The recent dealing of Huston Street to the Angels opened up the door for Joaquin Benoit to close for the Padres, but the GM-less Friars may not be done wheeling and dealing. Benoit’s name has been floated, though, according to MLB Network’s programming on Tuesday afternoon, the club is asking for more for him than they received for Street. That’s a steep price to pay for a reliever, and even a contender like the Tigers that might be looking for help in the bullpen could balk at it. However, if Benoit is dealt, someone has to step in and close for the club and Thayer is my top pick.
The 33-year old right-handed reliever has previous closing experience saving seven games in 2012 and another last year. He doesn’t throw exceptionally hard by today’s end gamer standards, but a fastball that averages over 93 mph isn’t exactly soft-tosser territory either. His strikeout rate is strong at 23.0 percent, and he doesn’t issue many free passes with a 6.8 percent walk rate. Thayer’s 2.09 ERA bests all of his advanced measures of performance, but he has a track record of success since joining the Padres in 2012 tallying a 3.07 ERA and 3.53 FIP 161.1 innings spanning 176 relief appearances according to FanGraphs data. Thayer isn’t dominant enough to warrant owning as a non-closing reliever in most leagues, but he is good enough to roster and soak up some quality innings while speculating on a Benoit deal before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. If you’re save starved, it’s better to jump the gun and watch Benoit remain on the Padres than wait until he’s dealt and miss the boat.
Ken Giles, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Ownership: ESPN: 2.2%, Yahoo!: 6%,CBS: 14%
Jonathan Papelbon is another name bandied about the rumor mill, and he’s voiced his willingness to waive his limited no-trade clause to join a contender. A Phillies squad that isn’t going to the playoffs, on the hook for two more pricey years of Papelbon, and in need of a youth infusion would be crazy to pass up the chance to move him. If that happens, Giles is in a great spot to rack up saves.
Manager Ryne Sandberg has already indicated that if Papelbon couldn’t close in a game for the club, for whatever reason, Giles and Jake Diekman would be in the mix for ninth inning duties. Diekman, however, is left-handed and it’s probably best not to limit him to closing games. He also has a track record of spotty control dating back to his time in the minors. Giles, too, has at times had some control issues, but he’s done a better job of the two in limiting walks this year.
Giles is a flame thrower averaging almost 98 mph on his fourseam fastball and backing it with a mid-to-upper-80s slider. He’s blowing away hitters with both pitches and tallying an obscene 17.8 percent swinging strike rate. There is no reason for him to be available in even medium sized mixers because even if Papelbon isn’t dealt, his strikeout rate and ratio boosting make him a non-closer worth owning. And if he steps into the closer gig in Philadelphia he instantly has very attainable top-10 relief pitcher potential for the rest of the season.
Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees
Ownership: ESPN: 41.0%, Yahoo!: 38%, CBS: 51%
The move from the offensively challenged Padres, who play their home games at pitcher friendly PETCO Park, to the less offensively deficient Yankees and their hitter friendly home ballpark is a huge gain for Headley. StatCorner’s Park Factors (using a rolling three year average) have Yankee Stadium’s park for homers and runs for left-handed batters at 130 and 104 respectively, and for right-handed batters at 127 and 106. Conversely, the factors for homers and runs for left-handed batters at PETCO Park are 93 and 88, and for right-handed batters they are 82 and 85. His leap in park factors is rivaled by his jump in offense that he’s joining as FanGraphs has the Padres in dead last in the league in wRC+ (an advanced offensive stat that uses 100 as league average) with a mark of 73 and the Yankees 17 percent better with a 90 wRC+.
Looking into Headley himself, he’s totaled a triple slash line of .277/.364/.453 in 1,035 road games since 2011 versus a .257/.347/.399 line in that time frame. The change of scenery should be huge for Headley, but it is worth mentioning that a herniated disc in his back required an epidural injection at the end of June. If back pain reoccurs, it would derail any gains made from joining his new team. He has played much better since receiving the epidural, though, and I’d gamble on him in all but shallow mixed league formats.
AL-Only Pick
Jim Adduci, OF, Texas Rangers
Ownership: ESPN: 0.0%, Yahoo!: 0%, CBS: 0%
The injury ravaged Rangers used Adduci as their number three hitter on Tuesday. He hit seventh for them in his first game back off the disabled list on Monday, and a drop back to the bottom third of the order is highly likely with the impending return of Alex Rios. That said, Adduci has a great shot at carving out steady playing time.
He’s hit at every minor league level, working walks at a high rate, and showing career best power last season at the Triple-A level swatting 16 homers and finishing with a .165 ISO. The power was a significant outlier from his previous performance, so expecting more of the same might be wishful thinking. His real value is with his legs. The 29-year old outfielder stole 32 bases in 41 attempts in Triple-A last year, and another two in two attempts in the majors. The speed element is not new to Adduci’s game as he’s bested 20 stolen bases in five other seasons, and the only year he failed to do so in full-season minor league ball was 2012 when he stole 18 bases in 126 games played. His value is limited to AL-only formats, but Adduci should be on the radar’s of gamers in AL-only leagues.
NL-Only Pick
Nick Vincent, RP, San Diego Padres
Ownership: ESPN: 0.0%, Yahoo!: 1% , CBS: 1%
If you want to dig a little deeper into the potential bullpen happenings in San Diego, Vincent looks like another name to keep an eye on. It’s entirely possible that a reliable, cheap, older reliever like Thayer could get dealt with Benoit at the deadline. Furthermore, Vincent may not need both Thayer and Benoit to be dealt to move into the ninth inning since he is already entering games with a higher leverage index than Thayer this year.
Vincent was recently activated form the disabled list, and he has an ugly 5.67 ERA, but don’t be fooled, the underlying numbers are much more favorable. He’s struck out 29.9 percent of the batters he’s faced this year while walking just 5.6 percent of them. His high strikeout rate is supported by a strong 11.0 percent swinging strike percentage. He’s also been even better than Thayer since joining the Padres bullpen in the same season in 2012 tallying a 27.8 percent strikeout rate, a 6.1 percent walk rate, and a 2.98 ERA that is supported by a 2.82 FIP. Vincent is already rosterable in large mixed leagues and NL-only formats, but save hungry owners in shallower leagues should scoop up Vincent, too.