Three years ago, the Houston Astros made Carlos Correa the first overall selection in the amateur draft. They chose him over lumanaries like Mark Appel  and Byron Buxton. For most fantasy baseball players, that is probably the last time you’ve heard of Correa. If you play year to year (in lieu of dynasty or keeper leagues), then the MLB Amateur draft is likely an afterthought except for the rarest of players.

Profile

Correa was a bit of a controversial selection. 2012 represented the first draft that utilized the new team bonus pool system. The Astros signed him for a well below slot value of 4.8 million so they could pay Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz well above slot. Some pundits thought it was a brilliant gambit because it allowed the Astros to draft three first round talents because they saved on their first overall selection. Others question the wisdom of passing up on a so-called superior talent like Buxton in order to save money.

Beyond that, Correa’s physical stature and tools have been compared to Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr, since all three are of similar size and stature as shortstops. His body projects more power in the future, but for the moment he has a solid hit tool and some surprising speed to go along with it. Most scouts think that speed will soon disappear as the power begins to appear.

Pundits

Correa has consistently been rated as the Astros top prospect since his selection in June of 2012. Before the 2014 season, Baseball America had Correa rated as the seventh best prospect in all of baseball. His 2014 season (although it was cut short by a broken leg) would seemingly not deter them from making him a top ten selection again in 2015. MLB.com had him rated eighth at the same time and that seems to be the floor coming into last season. Baseball Prospectus was the top rating with him ranking fifth overall there.

It will be interesting to see where the various publications rank him this year. On the field, he has always performed and has shown very good maturity from day one. However, the combination of the broken leg with the Astros slow approach to promotions might cause some to sour on him just slightly. I’d still expect to easily be within the top twenty prospects again with all three publications.

Production

I hate to read too much into minor league numbers. However, growth can clearly be seen with Correa even as he has risen in level in each of his three seasons. His plate discipline has improved with each year and his patience has improved as well. Perhaps the best characteristic is the one that is most likely to fluctuate. In both 2013 and 2014, he managed to drive in runs at a very good clip despite mediocre power numbers. This bears watching as we move forward.

Projection

This remains the hardest job for baseball scouts and those that love to talk about prospects. With a player like Correa it all depends on what happens with his body. If he matures and fills out naturally he will become a 20+ home run threat. If he can manage to do that at shortstop then we might be looking at someone that could be on the level of Troy Tulowitzki. If his body fills out he could be moved to third base where he might produce on the same level as Manny Machado. If you hold a gun to the head of the Astros they would obviously be happy either way. Considering they haven’t had a franchise shortstop since Dickie Thon got beaned in 1983 (sorry, Adam Everett), they would obviously love for him to stay at shortstop.

2015 Prediction

Carlos Correa will open the season in AA Corpus Christi. From there, it gets pretty murky. There were rumors that he was going to get the call to Corpus Christi before last season’s injury. Believe it or not, broken legs are not particularly difficult to return from physically. The question is whether he will remain aggressive on the basepaths considering that is how he injured himself in the first place. The mental side of the game is the most difficult one to predict. If he comes back the same player he could wind up in AAA before the end of the season. That means a September call up is possible. Otherwise, he is likely a year away from being a big time prospect at the ML level.