Most of the time, fantasy players will not reap any kind of direct benefit from the amateur draft for at least two or three years. Of course, every year there are exceptions, and Carlos Rodon will likely be the exception from the 2014 draft. Amazingly, he lasted until the number three overall pick, but he looks to be the first from that class to make a lasting impact for fantasy baseball players.

Profile

Rodon was a three year stud that pitched at North Carolina State. Like Mark Appel before him, he was overwhelmingly thought to be the number one overall pick coming into the 2014 college season. Unfortunately for him, he wasn’t quite as dominant in 2014 as he had been the two seasons before. Naturally, that was somewhat deceiving given that his ERA and other DIPS numbers may actually have been better.

Rodon started off 9-0 with a 1.57 ERA his freshman year. MLB draft rules require you stay at least three years at a four year school before entering the draft. He followed up that sparkling year with a 10-3 record, but his 2.99 ERA should have been an indication that he wasn’t completely unhittable. Even though he had a better ERA in 2014, his win-loss record, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks per nine innings all suffered. That took him from a prohibitive number one overall pick to the third pick in the draft.

Pundits

MLB.com and Baseball America seem to be in agreement on Rodon. The former has him rated 14th overall while the latter has him at 15th. Baseball Prospectus has him at 41st. All three rave about Rodon’s durability and consistency. His fastball usually sits between 92-94, but he can dial it up to 97 on occasion. However, what sets Rodon apart from his peers is his overwhelming slider. That slider could potentially get him to the big leagues at the start of the season if the White Sox feel he is ready.

The key with Rodon will be the development of a changeup. He has been working on it and scouts say it is passable now. The key will be elevating it to the level of a major league starter. He will not be a dominant major league starter without a quality third pitch. He could probably make it as a late inning reliever now with a quality fastball and dominant slider. It will be up to the White Sox as to how they want to develop him.

Production

Anyone that looks at these numbers too closely is really deluding themselves. You’ll notice there are no allusions to ERA there. Why bother when you are looking at 24 innings? He kept the ball in the ballpark and had a sparkling 38/13 strikeout to walk ratio. Anything beyond that we could consider blind luck. The fact that he had a two to one strikeout to walk ratio in AAA is promising, but in twelve innings we really don’t know much at this point.

Projection

It is completely natural to compare Rodon to Chris Sale. After all, Sale is left handed and was a high draft pick for the White Sox. Furthermore, his trip through the minors was quick and the Sox let him cut his teeth in the bullpen before moving him to the rotation. Both are power pitchers, but when you look at their frames you could not see any two pitchers that are more different. If there is any knock on Sale it is has been that he has not been able to go 200 innings yet as a starter. Rodon has the look of a guy that could be that kind of horse for multiple seasons.

It had been said that he was the best collegiate lefty since David Price. Price was a little more big league ready when he was selected. Rodon will need to develop that changeup in order to be a consistent top of the rotation starter. The question is whether he will be developing that in the White Sox bullpen or in AAA.

2015 Prediction

Rodon will be an exciting name to watch in Spring Training. The White Sox find themselves as a potential contender in the crowded AL Central. Suddenly, the Royals made everyone think anything possible. If the White Sox feel like Rodon can help them in the short term, they will be tempted to let him open the season on the big league squad. I personally think that would be a mistake, but I’m not the one getting paid the big bucks.

At worst (or best depending on your perspective), Rodon is likely to make his debut sometime during the 2015 season. Even a half season of AAA might help him work on that changeup and become the dominant starter they hope he can become. He is definitely a player to keep an eye on as March continues.