Profile

Jon Gray is an imposing figure on the mound as the righthander stands 6-foot-4 while weighing 235 pounds and he should make his presence felt in Major League Baseball sooner rather than later. The 23-year-old was the third overall pick out of Oklahoma in the 2013 MLB draft and there’s undoubtedly been a lot of hype surrounding the talented pitcher given the Colorado Rockies desperate need for a frontline starter. He spent all last season with Double-A Tulsa and while the results weren’t extraordinary, he showed well overall.

Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both have him ranked as the Rockies top prospect and it’s clear he possesses a high ceiling if everything pans out as expected. While he hit 100 MPH on a consistent basis at Oklahoma, he often sat at 91-94 last year while being able to hit 95-97 when he needed too. His fastball rates as a 55/60 while his nasty slider rates as a 50/60. His changeup could still use some work as it currently rates 50/55, but once he fine tunes that pitch it could make his arsenal even more impressive. He’s likely to begin the year with Triple-A Albuquerque with a callup in-season a likely possibility.

Pundits

As previously mentioned, Gray is the Rockies top prospect and some notable analysts hold in him in high regard as well. Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the 13th overall prospect, MLB.com ranked him 16th, and Keith Law of ESPN ranked him 22nd.

From Law:

Gray’s first full season in pro ball was solid. Perhaps a bit below reasonable expectations given his stuff and draft status (he went No. 3 overall in 2013), but a good foundation for him going forward as he works on developing that all-important third pitch and learning the craft of pitching. Gray would hit 100 mph in college, but didn’t flash that while pitching every fifth day last year, and was mostly 89-94 with the occasional 95 or 96, working more on trying to sink the ball or keep it down in the zone so he could be more efficient with his pitches. His slider was above-average rather than plus, but his changeup, not a new pitch but a new emphasis for him, was solid-average or better by the end of the season.

He’s not likely to ever have plus command, so the key variable for Gray will be re-establishing either the fastball (via velocity) or slider as a bona fide out pitch again, which they weren’t during 2014. His summer ended slightly early due to a sore shoulder, but he’s expected to be ready to go in March; perhaps fatigue was behind the slightly reduced velocity. As is, he’s a solid future rotation member, but closer to average than an ace. If he gets his old swagger back, he’ll regain that status as a potential No. 1.

From MLB.com:

After Gray ran up Draft boards in a hurry as a junior at Oklahoma who was hitting triple digits, most were ready to ticket him to the big leagues almost immediately. As a result, his first full season, spent entirely in Double-A, might be seen as a disappointment by some, but he did turn in a Texas League All-Star campaign.

One of the concerns about Gray came when his velocity dropped at times during the season. That’s bound to happen with college starters going from throwing once a week to once every five days, but when Gray was down to 90-93 mph, there was some worry. The big right-hander did bounce back and was up to 97 mph at times over the course of the year, with excellent sink and tail. His power slider had good tilt and bite when he threw it right, and his sinking changeup gave him a third future above-average pitch. While he was generally around the strike zone, Gray’s overall command wasn’t consistently sharp. At times, he struggled repeating his delivery, which may have contributed to the drop in velocity and slight command issues.

Gray learned to slow things down when needed, and despite not making it to Colorado when some expected, he’s still on track to pitch near the top of a big league rotation in the future.

Production

As you can see in the table above, Gray started off his professional career in fine fashion as he didn’t give up a single homer over his nine starts in 2013 while posting a 1.93 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 rate overall between rookie ball and High-A Modesto. 2014 was a bit tougher for Gray as he was facing advanced competition and the Rockies also tried to alter his approach a bit from becoming a strikeout artist on the mound and morphing into pitching to induce contact according to Purple Row. The numbers he posted are nothing to scoff at considering he was playing against older competition and his low home run rate is especially encouraging. His command surely could use some help, but if he can iron out his issue there he may just be able to become the ace some project him to be.

Projections

Steamer isn’t very high on Gray’s prospects this year even though it looks like they project him for a mid-season callup. If the elephant in the room isn’t obvious enough, the prospects of pitching in Coors Field are certainly putting a damper on his statistical projections. The fact of the matter is pitching at Coors is the worst nightmare for many pitchers and it’s likely going to be a struggle for Gray initially as he tries to adjust to pitching in the elevation. Personally, I believe Gray will post a lower ERA and higher K/9 than the Steamer model is projecting at this point considering his pedigree.

Prediction

At this point, Gray is undraftable in re-draft formats, but in keeper formats owners will have to strongly consider taking him in the later rounds as he’s very likely to earn a mid-season callup for the Rockies considering the desperate need for talent in the rotation. To this point, his arsenal of pitches and production at the minor league has been pretty impressive, but it’s hard to get too excited for his chances of becoming a fantasy factor this year considering the park he pitches at.

Thanks to FanGraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN for providing the statistical information. You can comment below if you have any questions or remarks concerning the article. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions you may have.