Profile

Kris Bryant is a bad dude. The consensus top prospect in arguably the best system in baseball has overwhelming tools at the plate and a glove developing fast enough for him to stick at a position where the fantasy pool seems to get shallower every season. Bryant smacked a minor league-leading 43 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season, hammering out a .295/.428/.619 slash line in a half season at Iowa after the Cubs decided he’d already learned everything he could in the Southern League. They certainly weren’t wrong to move him along quickly; Baseball America ranked Bryant as the most exciting prospect in the Southern League and rated his hitting, power, and (infield) arm as the best tools in the league.

And ohbytheway… 2014 was Bryant’s first full season of professional baseball.

Bryant’s raw power is a true 80 tool. It has been dominant throughout his brief MiLB career and can be expected to translate almost immediately to the major leagues. In the four stops he’s had that have lasted more than just a couple of games, he’s never posted an ISO lower than .324. In the last five seasons, only three hitters have bettered that rate over a full big league season: Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, and Albert Pujols. In the expansion area, the only players to post a better ISO prior to turning 25 are Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Ken Griffey, Jr. That kind of historic season is probably too much to ask right out of the gate, but it gives a sense of what Bryant is capable of in the relatively near future.

Bryant has received rave reviews on his makeup and has worked himself into a solid defensive third baseman, despite his hulking 6’5”, 215-pound frame. He runs well for his size, but likely won’t challenge double-digit steals as a major leaguer.

Bryant is a fantasy superstar waiting to emerge. The only question is when the Cubs will allow it to happen.

Pundits

Bryant is universally beloved among prospect analysts. Keith Law has him first overall at ESPN; he trails only the incumbent Byron Buxton on MLB.com’s list. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have yet to publicly release their lists of top prospects, but I have a feeling that we won’t see Bryant outside of anybody’s top five.

From MLB.com:

“Bryant has everything needed to lead the Majors in homers at some point: size, strength, bat speed and loft in his swing, plus the willingness to work counts to find a pitch he can punish. He doesn’t sell out for power, instead letting it come naturally, and he can drive the ball out of the park to the opposite field as well as anyone. Though Bryant will pile up some strikeouts, he makes enough hard contact to hit for a solid average and draws enough walks to post a robust on-base percentage.”

From Keith Law:

“Bryant’s swing is very balanced, with a wide setup and good use of his lower half to generate power. While there were concerns when he was an amateur that his bat speed might not catch up to major league velocity, he really has had no problem with better stuff in the pros, probably because his eye is so good and his swing is very short from load to contact. He’s a good enough athlete to be able to handle third base, although he’d probably be better defensively in right field with his plus arm and fewer quick-reaction plays to challenge him. Wherever he ends up, he has 30-homer, .400 OBP potential, and should challenge for MVP awards once he has a few years in the majors.”

Production

Regardless of level, Bryant has never been anything less than a superstar. You could drum up a faint murmur of concern for his strikeout rate, but it rose only slightly upon his promotion to Triple-A, and he continued to draw walks at an excellent pace, which tells me his plate discipline will be just fine. His BABIPs are astronomical, but even with earthbound luck as a major leaguer, Bryant could easily hit for solid average.

Projections

Steamer is over the moon for Bryant. The strikeouts will be high, as they’ve always been, but contact rate won’t likely be an impediment to his power production. His projected slugging percentage puts him in All Star company, tied with David Ortiz and sandwiched between Yasiel Puig and teammate Anthony Rizzo.

Prediction

Chicago is shifting into win-now mode. With Luis Valbuena shipped to Houston and Mike Olt continually failing to live up to his own prospect hype, I’m not sure who’s left to keep Bryant in Iowa. The Cubs were aggressive in promoting Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, and Jorge Soler last season, so I don’t see any reason why they’d wait any longer than necessary with Bryant. He’s already 23 years old and has proven his ability to adjust to higher level pitching as he’s zoomed through Chicago’s farm system. He should be a Cub on Opening Day.

But he probably won’t be. If the Theo Epstein waits until mid-April to bring his top prospect up to the big leagues, he might be able to buy himself an extra year of control.

You’ll probably have to pay a hefty hype tax to grab Bryant in your draft, and you’ll have to pick up somebody to keep his seat warm for at least a few weeks. But after a couple of superstars, it’s not easy to find power at third base. There are more experienced and predictable players in that second tier, but after the first couple of rounds, there likely won’t be anybody else with a better shot to deliver 30-plus homers. If Bryant gets 500 plate appearances, he can absolutely get there.

There’s risk here, as there is with any prospect, but I expect that Bryant will prove he’s worth the gamble.