2015 Fantasy Baseball: Addison Reed and His Potential Replacement
This post was written by Rich Migliorisi exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.
Playing the closer game has much to do with avoiding the wrong pitchers as it does picking the right ones. Heading into the 2014 season, I discussed Addison Reed’s injury risk. And despite those red flags, he managed to stay healthy and collect 32 saves. Showing me up, I suppose. But there were some bumps in the road.
How I felt overall about Reed can be summed from an article I produced after he was traded to the Diamondbacks prior to the beginning of last season:
Reed, 24, showed a significant decrease in velocity during the 2013 season, losing almost a full two miles per hour on his heater (94.5 to 92.7). His zone percentage went from 57.6% to 52.9%, which could increase the risk for injury. In fairness, this could be due to the increased use of his slider, which is now over 30%, but even the high usage of that pitch makes you a bit concerned, since sliders are known to heighten the risk of injury. Chase Field actually graded out lower than the Cell according to ESPN’s home run park factor, so Reed’s fly-ball tendencies may survive the move in that sense.
In short, I felt Reed was not only a risk due to potential injury, but also because of potential statistical decline. And although 32 saves may say otherwise, Reed did have some problems, especially with homers. It seems fair to point to that declining fastball velocity as the culprit. The righty gave up eight dingers via that pitch last season. In fact, among relievers last year, Reed ranked third worst with a 1.67 HR/9.
I’m not looking to ramp up the lower velocity means lower performance shtick. Pitchers with low-end velocity can make it work, and others can point to Reed’s strong strikeout rate, walk rate, and swinging strike rate as reasons to stay positive. And while those things are true, my focus isn’t only on the potential of statistical decline, but health as well.
Reed has been dealing with shoulder issues this spring. In fact, he has yet to pitch in a game yet and has discussed altering his delivery to reduce stress on his shoulder. There’s just too much going on here for me to a buyer on draft day, but I certainly will be looking for his replacement.
And who may that be? Let’s break it down.
Admittedly, this list is pretty uninspiring. And anyone I left off is either battling injury or isn’t really being considered for the closer role.
Brad Ziegler plans to make his Spring Training debut shortly, as he continues to recover from microfracture knee surgery. He is expected to be ready for the season, but even so, the “I before E, except after Z” doesn’t have that typical closer stuff and is 35 years of age. As for potential platoon problems, Ziegler usually does well against righties, but not lefties, yet somehow that throwing motion of his gave him an opposite result in 2014. It will be interesting if his potential platoon issues, or declining stuff, will prevent him from closing out games. My guess is that Ziegs isn’t a long-term answer, however, he has that veteran presence some managers love, so he could get the first chance as the closer.
Oliver Perez had some arm soreness late last season, but he seems to be okay now. Still, it is something to keep in mind. He racks up the K’s but can have control issues. The biggest strike against him, however, is being a lefty. We know how this works. Often times, managers don’t want to “waste” their lefty. Although that may depend on how many lefties the D’backs carry with them into the season. We also can’t ignore his up-and-down walk rate.
David Hernandez is a name seasoned fantasy players know well. We sat by patiently, waiting for his chance to become closer. We waited. And waited. And waited. And…then he got hurt. Last season’s Tommy John surgery will likely keep Hernandez out for the first couple of months of 2015. After that, we won’t know what he will be. If he were healthy, he would be the one to consider on draft day, and that takes into account his 2013 struggles.
And that leads us to Evan Marshall, who is by far the most fascinating name on the list. There is a lot to like here. First, he’s about to turn 25 years old and succeeded in his first season of big league ball last year. That is very much unlike Matt Stites who is not on this list because of his elbow issues and his recent failures. Marshall is right-handed. He throws hard. He gets strikeouts. He gets swings and misses to back up those strikeouts. He keeps the ball in the yard. And his BB/9 is average if not a little bit better than that.
As for contact and zone percentage results, Marshall could be a little more in the strike zone, but he does well limiting contact in the zone as well as outside of it. He gets his opponents to swing at his offerings outside the zone and miss at a good rate when they swing.
So what’s Marshall’s problem?
He needs to improve against left-handed hitters. Marshall surrendered a .292/.367/.414 line against them during his debut. According to Brooksbaseball.net, the righty throws a sinker (which looks like a two-seamer to me) over 50% of the time against lefties and they hit it pretty well. But in fairness, we are looking at only a 32 at-bat sample size. The pitch seems to do well enough against righties, as they only have an insignificant .049 ISO-against. If you’re wondering, Marshall held righties to a .244/.310/.356 slash line.
Despite the seemingly split results of the sinker, Marshall’s changeup and slider have been very good, getting swinging strikes at an above average rate. The changeup also does well against lefties, helping alleviate some concern of a long-term platoon problem. Maybe it just comes down to Marshall improving the use of the results of that sinker against lefties (or maybe just going with the fourseamer more often).
Despite the lefty platoon situation, there’s a lot to like here. If I had to choose a long-term closer option, I’m going with Marshall. In the short-term, veteran presence may take hold and give Brad Ziegler the first go around. But if Reed’s health is in question all year, my money is on Marshall to eventually take over that job one way or another. We could worry about the financial end of this when it comes to future arbitration cases, but since Marshall is a second year player and not yet arbitration-eligible, maybe the Dbacks decide not to even worry about it. And just to get you a little excited, here’s Marshall looking like a boss:
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