I’ve spent a long time avoiding evaluating starting pitchers. I suppose it beats evaluating relief pitchers, but otherwise it’s a pain in the tookus. The standard numbers are so volatile that basing your predictions on those numbers makes little sense. Yet, when you compare the sabermetric numbers and the standard numbers they vary wildly. As we continue the VORP series, we find a position where there are more issues in using advanced metrics.

What we are doing here is simply taking the total universe of starting pitchers and averaging their three year totals for pitcher value of replacement player (pVORP). From there, we found the median score and then subtracted that total from everyone’s three year average. When we look at the top twenty five pitchers according to pVORP we see some pretty interesting results. This time we are skipping the pleasantries and going straight to the heart of the matter with relative VORP.

Who’s Number One?

When you look at the top of the list, you see the immediate difference between fantasy baseball and sabermetric baseball. Max Scherzer finishes in a surprising number one position in value over replacement instead of Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw’s numbers would seem to indicate that he should be number one and every fantasy publication would say the same. This is where the subtle differences rear their ugly head. Sabermetric value is dependent on park factors, defensive efficiency ratings, and eliminating old-fashioned batted ball luck.

This is important since Scherzer is changing leagues and stadiums. Even if you go by the numbers you have to reconsider where to pick him. When taking a look at the old fashioned numbers you see the kind of mixed results that can make you scratch your head. Kershaw probably still comes out on top, but who’s number two?

Interestingly enough, Scherzer finishes first in two of the four major categories. It isn’t completely insane to say he is at least the second best starting pitcher in fantasy circles over the past three seasons. Furthermore, you could theoretically shave up to half a run off of his ERA and a little off the WHIP with the move to the National League and Nationals ballpark in particular. Kershaw probably still ranks first since he has the huge lead in ERA and WHIP. What he doesn’t lead in he finishes second in.

Scherzer finishes fourth in ERA and WHIP, so some might place him behind Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale. If this kind of listing shows anything it is the fact that pitching is a lot deeper than what it used to be and that you don’t have to necessarily jump over the first ace available to you on the board.

The Underrated

When looking at the list we see that most players come within a few places of their VORP rank. The few who don’t stick out like a sore thumb. Justin Verlander comes to mind immediately. We see him drop as many as 50 places between the two slots. The same occurred for Jose Quintana, Lance Lynn and Anibal Sanchez. If they have anything in common it is that some of them had down seasons in 2014. There usually is a bias when we look at the most immediate season. The key is to look at the three seasons in a row to see if the dip represents a trend or if you can capitalize on others’ prejudice or if you should avoid them.

Justin Verlander is obviously on the way down, but the others are obvious contenders to anchor your rotation from the middle to late rounds. Even if all four produce simply at the same level as a year ago, they still would outproduce where ESPN and Yahoo have them rated. All are projected to pitch for good teams. You can put Quintana, Lynn, and Sanchez on your list to keep an eye on.

The Overrated

On the flip side, you have some guys that ESPN and Yahoo like that value over replacement player doesn’t particularly like. These include (to a lesser extent) Adam Wainright, Stephen Strasburg, Corey Kluber, and Madison Bumgarner. The reverse is usually true in this case. We know Kluber came of age last season, so it is perfectly natural to see the experts jump on that bandwagon. I might be willing to do that, too. The others are a whole different situation and the main reason why we should look at all of these numbers.

Strasburg and Bumgarner in particular are victims of the hype machine. Strasburg has been hailed as one of the top three or four arms in the game, but he has never produced on that level. Sooner or later you give up on potential and go with what is. Bumgarner is a more insidious case. He has produced in all three San Francisco Giants postseason runs and every time people think he’s going to become that dominant pitcher year around. Again, it is time to accept that he will be a very good pitcher most of the time and a great one when it counts.