2015 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2015 Fantasy Baseball: Joey Votto’s DFS Value

Attempt to follow this argument logically.

P: People like new toys.

P: Baseball fans are people.

—————————————–

C: Therefore, baseball fans like new toys.

It’s been a while since I had a class in logic, but I’m certain you would agree that the argument above is a valid argument.

In this instance, consider that “toys” are players.

The baseball world’s toy drive is held each offseason by way of trades and free agency where lots of players find new homes. As a result of this year’s drive, Jon Lester will get to experience Chicago and Max Scherzer will get to tour the White House. While Cubs and Nats fans should be ecstatic to acquire these guys, keep in mind the front offices took the dive to add to an existing core.

The aforementioned existing cores are made of roster spots without a yearly turnover. Reminder: These guys are just as valuable, and I want to give you a heads up on one guy in particular that might fly under the radar in daily fantasy that doesn’t necessarily have that “new car smell.”

Joey Votto 

It’s been a while since we’ve been able to watch Votto play, eh? (Excuse the joke, Votto is Canadian) If you are wondering why you haven’t heard his name much in the last year, it might be because he only played in 62 games last season. Those 62 games were not very Votto-like. Never fear, though; he is back.

Right now you’re probably confusedly muttering something about the fact that you know Votto is good and it’s dumb for me to even mention him, because “of course you’ll remember him during the season.” But will you?

Votto isn’t sexy. He’ll drop some bombs, but he won’t flip his bat. The fact is, he’s a gamer. He sees a lot of pitches, puts himself in great counts to hit, and yeah, he walks a lot. While his patient approach has gotten him some flack from the “Twitterverse” and other internet fraternities, keep in mind just how valuable he can become in the daily fantasy realm.

Let’s take a look at some of his career numbers in categories that are vital to DFS research.

First off, Votto has amassed a .407 wOBA in his 952 game career.

According to FanGraphs, an average wOBA is in the .320 range. Votto’s .400+ wOBA earns him the title of “excellent.”

You might be bummed that a lot of his getting on base is via the walk, but never fear, DraftKings is here. On DraftKings, taking a walk is just as valuable as driving in, or scoring a run.

His tremendous ability to consistently get on base makes him a “safe play” and an everyday cash game target.

Assuming he’s fully healthy as reports indicate, there is no reason to assume Votto can’t produce similar numbers this season.

Another important statistic for DFS research is ISO. (For a better understanding of ISO you can read my DFS Glossary, or take a deeper look at FanGraphs)

While Votto’s power seems to have diminished in shear number of home runs, it’s key to point out that his ISO hasn’t really taken a huge hit. Excluding his injury plagued season last year, Votto has still produced well above average ISO in each of his seasons in the big leagues. Also to his benefit, ESPN’s Park Factors rated Votto’s home park as the fourth best park in terms of home runs.

At DraftKings, Votto is starting the season tied as the 5th most expensive first basemen at $4,600, with the ability to produce as the number one. If I’ve been unable to persuade you of his awesomeness, I fear you’re beyond repair.

**All stats via FanGraphs.

**ParkFactors via ESPN

**Pricing and Scoring via DraftKings

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