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2015 Fantasy Baseball: Trade Deadline Profile — Philadelphia Phillies

Most teams in the big leagues have moved to some form analytics. In some respects, you would almost think the blogosphere is disappointed at the concept. Ruben Amaro Jr. is one of the few that has shunned sabermetrics as a decision making tool. Writers throughout the internet and even in the traditional papers have left a trail of snark so long that you have to leave a trail of bread crumbs just to trace it to its roots.

Whether related to this blind spot or not, the biggest criticism levied against Amaro has been his reluctance to deal aging veterans. You will see the list below, but many of these names have been there for several years. The word around the league is that teams have almost given up on dealing with Amaro. His asking prices have been so high that it isn’t worth the effort. The Phillies demise has been obvious to every observer for literally years, but Amaro either seems blind to it or he’s operating through some kind of fear that he’s going to be taken advantage of.

I profiled the Brewers first because they are more likely to make multiple trades. The Phillies are the worst team in baseball by record, but more importantly, they are the worst team in baseball based on talent. Teams like the Athletics (and even the Brewers) could rightfully claim that their luck could turn around. The Phillies are so far down in the basement that the league would have to pipe light down to them.

I’m not here to trash Amaro. I understand his dilemma on a certain level. You have a team that was once the class of the National League, and slowly but surely they have moved further and further away from that spot. Time can sneak up on you. Giving up and rebuilding usually gets general managers fired. So, he staved off unemployment for a few seasons, but the grim reaper is coming for him anyway. You can’t avoid it.

Hitters

Carlos Ruiz— Catcher (.230, 2 HR, 16 runs, 16 RBI, 21 BB, 0 SB)

Let’s take a look at Exhibit A for the waiting too long complaint. Ruiz has a career .754 OPS and that is with this season’s .618 OPS included. The problem is that Amaro probably sees Ruiz as a regular catcher. After all, he’s been a regular catcher for ten years. The problem is that he isn’t a starting quality catcher anymore. A contender might be interested in adding Ruiz as a quality veteran backup. They might even throw in a B level prospect for the honor. Given his track record, Amaro probably won’t take it.

Ryan Howard— First Base (.226, 15 HR, 29 runs, 47 RBI, 15 BB, 0 SB)

Poke fun at Amaro for giving him that contract all you want, but any GM could have done it. The good news is that Amaro has seen the light and has offered teams to pay off most of his contract if they take him. The problem is that even with the designated hitter, there isn’t a single contender that would do better with him than the guy they already have. He’s not bad for a losing team, but he’s not going anywhere at this point unless Amaro pulls a fast one.

Chase Utley— Second Base (.179, 4 HR, 18 Runs, 25 RBI, 21 BB, 3 SB)

Speaking of holding onto someone for too long, at least Utley is going to be off the books after the season. However, if Amaro had dealt him even before the season he would have gotten at least a good prospect or two. The Phillies have made noise about Utley not getting his job back when he returns. It’s hard to imagine someone having less value than Ryan Howard on the open market, but we may have found him.

Ben Revere— Outfield (.297, 1 HR, 47 Runs, 24 RBI, 19 BB, 22 SB)

In terms of position players, Revere is easily the Phillies most marketable player. However, this is an area where Amaro is in danger of overplaying his hand. Revere is a decent top of the order bat, but given his lack of patience, he’s not a great one. You would think he would be good defensively, but the numbers say otherwise. Of course, other teams pay attention to numbers where Amaro really doesn’t. He could get a couple of decent prospects if he plays his cards right.

Jeff Francouer— Outfield (.249, 7 HR, 18 runs, 29 RBI, 8 BB, 0 SB)

There’s been some interest lately in Francouer as a reserve for a playoff contender. The Phillies didn’t give up anything for him, so if they could get even a decent prospect for him it would be a victory. Think about what we have here for a second. If the Phillies manage to swing deals for even three of the players above they would have four or five solid prospects to add to their system.

Pitchers

Cole Hamels— Starting Pitcher (5-7, 116.2 INN, 3.63 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, 123 K)

Here is classic Amaro at work. Most pundits think that the Phillies will somehow wind up keeping Hamels through the deadline. Why? The asking price is simply too high. Hamels has little value to the Phillies over time. His 3.40 FIP shows he is a still a top of the rotation type of arm, but the longer he languishes on this team the less he will look like one. They could get three really good prospects right now if they are willing to pay off a portion of his contract. They ought to strike now while the getting is good.

Aaron Harang— Starting Pitcher (4-11, 106.0 INN, 4.08 ERA, 1.236 WHIP, 73 K)

With Harang you get exactly what you’re looking at. His FIP stands at 4.06 and he’s been pitching the same way he’s pitched most of his career. His signing was a good one and he affords the Phillies the perfect opportunity to get something out of a small investment. He’s on a one year deal, so he fits as a rental. While he’s not a playoff starter, a number of contenders need to extend their rotations. Also, Harang is a perfect example of the harshness of the wins beast. He’s been slightly below average in comparison with the league, but he’s leading the league in losses. If he goes to a contender he might be a decent waiver claim. Give him a little run support and some better defense and he could give you a nice finishing kick.

Jonathan Papelbon— Closer/Setup man (1-1, 15 SV, 1.77 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 36 K)

Papelbon has been asking everyone but Santa Claus to get out of Philadelphia. Unfortunately, his desire to be a closer is holding him back. This is understood, though. If he finishes 55 games, then his 13 million dollar option automatically kicks in. He’s standing at 31 games finished. If he becomes a setup guy somewhere else he likely won’t see that option kick in and most teams refuse to pay setup guys 13 million dollars. At his best, his fastball averaged 95.0 MPH. It is down to a 91.1 this season. Some teams may shy away from Papelbon as a closer because they see his stuff diminishing. He likely could have a nice last few seasons as a setup guy if he’s willing to swallow his pride. Otherwise, he can close out the season with the Phillies and hope a new team needs a closer next year.

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