The White Sox have existed in baseball’s middle ground since they won the World Series in 2005. If all of the major sports are similar in any aspect, it is the fact that the middle is probably the worst place to be for a franchise. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are the most recent example of a franchise that has gone from the basement to the penthouse. The amateur draft is not quite as crucial in baseball as the other sports, but it is still very important. Moreover, going through a rebuilding period allows you to purge your bad contracts.

This is where we arrive when we talk about the White Sox. Perhaps the best example of a bad contract comes with outfielder Melky Cabrera. To call Cabrera inconsistent would be a bit of an understatement. He seems to alternate replacement level seasons with all-star quality campaigns. Yet, when he’s coming off of a replacement level campaign, he represents the best possible chance for the White Sox to vault into contention. If you add three or four wins along with their other gains in the offseason, you have yourself a potential contender.

All that being said, the White Sox would probably be better served not going for it all. They could continue to build around their trio of strong starting pitchers and let bad contracts like Adam Laroche or Cabrera ease off the books. Still, there is that tantalizing knowledge that everything could come together for a magical season.

Where he has been

Cabrera is a trap player when it comes to fantasy baseball. The issue is that he doesn’t bring any dominant skill to the table. He brings virtually no speed and while he does hit some home runs, he doesn’t hit enough to give you much there either. So, the hope is that he can have a little batted ball luck and hit .300 or better. That has been a winning fantasy formula in even numbered years, but as you can see, even somewhat of a drop takes him from being a quality fantasy producer to marginal.

Cabrera was one of the first players busted in the new drug testing regime several years ago. It is common knowledge that athletes may have to partake in regular drug testing to check for specific drugs other than steroids. For example, they may be required to take a 5-panel drug test, (more information about a 5-panel drug test here) to test for substances such as methamphetamines and ecstasy. Like anyone else, if they are caught with these drugs in their systems, they could face serious repurcussions. And Cabera was one of the unlucky ones who failed his team’s drug test. The implication was that the numbers he produced in Kansas City and San Francisco were steroid induced. Some teammates were able to pass drug tests by using Quick Fix urine but Cabrera did not do the same and was caught red handed. Of course, the other implication is that the numbers in 2013 and 2015 represent the real Cabrera. He is signed through 2017, so there are those that suspect that we won’t see a “motivated” Cabrera until the 2017 season. The projections certainly reflect that.

What could be

Just like in real baseball, there is nothing particularly wrong with any of these numbers for the typical fantasy baseball player. The question is what price do you pay for them? The projections you see will almost certainly not be the real numbers. They represent a midpoint between the good Cabrera and the marginal Cabrera. They represent a solid Cabrera. No one can say for sure whether a solid Cabrera even exists. That being said, we really can’t betray our methodology because a player doesn’t fit the pattern that 95 percent of baseball follows. For that reason, he may be worth a late round pick and a bench spot just in case the good Cabrera shows up.

A Rosy Picture

There are times when it sounds like a good idea to abandon standard methods. The rosy picture for Cabrera doesn’t look so rosy because he has rarely had durability concerns and because his numbers fluctuate between really good or really marginal. The real rosy picture probably has him hit somewhere north of .300 with around 15 home runs and 80 runs and RBI.