2016 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2016 Fantasy Baseball: Breakout Candidate — Wil Myers

The blogosphere owes Dayton Moore a huge apology. Sure, all of the generic snark kind of looks foolish in the face of two straight pennants and one World Series title. However, more specifically, if we believe the pundits out there (myself included), the Wil Myers trade was the dumbest trade since Jack fetched magic beans for his livestock. Like Jack, that trade actually worked out for Moore and the Royals.

Myers on the other hand has slowly retreated into obscurity after being the minor league player of the year in 2012. He hit a combined 37 home runs, scored 98 runs, and drove in 109 runs that year in a combined 134 games. Everyone was so certain that he would be a superstar and everyone was so wrong. At least, they were wrong up until this point.

What we know is that Myers hasn’t been a bad big league player to this point. He has a collective 107 RC+ (100 is average) to this point in his career, and he is still slated to play every day for the Padres. Unfortunately, he has never been able to stay healthy up to this point. The Padres are shifting him to first base and they hope this will be the switch that keeps him on the field. The Padres are going nowhere in the NL West, so they have the ability to experiment at this point.

Where he has been

AVG HR Runs RBI SB
2013 .293 13 50 53 5
2014 .222 6 37 35 6
2015 .253 8 40 29 5

Having Wil Myers on your fantasy team up to this point was a lot like dating Gertrude from accounting. She has a steady job and seems nice enough, but it just doesn’t excite you. Sure, she looks a little better when taking off the glasses, but you could do so much better. For many fantasy players, they will lose Wil Myers number faster than you’ll give Gertrude the cold shoulder.

However, these numbers hide the fact that when you remove 2014 (an injury riddled season) from the equation, you are actually looking at above average player overall. Give an above average player 600 plate appearances and suddenly that player becomes a fantasy option. A healthy Myers might be comparable to Gertrude’s younger and more frisky sister. It may not be the most exciting option out there, but the numbers could surprise you.

Where he could go

AVG HR Runs RBI SB
Depth Charts .258 21 76 72 11
Steamer .257 20 64 67 9
ZIPS .259 15 60 53 8

Like so many before him, Myers came with the burden of expectations. Had 2012 not happened, Myers likely would be viewed differently. After all, there have been a number of all-star players that took a few years to find themselves. Perhaps Myers is a late bloomer like them. Perhaps he will never be the player everyone thought he could be. We all know the guy that peaked in high school or college. Maybe he peaked in AA and AAA.

The numbers above have to be taken in context. First of all, Petco Park isn’t exactly friendly to hitters. Secondly, the Padres as a team aren’t exactly brimming over with talented bats. Add those two factors together and even good hitters would see depressed numbers. So, the experts expect Myers to become a good hitter. He just likely won’t become the star everyone saw on the horizon back in 2012.

A Rosy Picture

AVG HR Runs RBI SB
600 PA .256 16 77 71 10

One of Myers’ advantages is that he has moved around the diamond a bit. That makes him eligible at first base and all three outfield slots in some leagues. That kind of positional flexibility has some utility on a fantasy bench in a standard league. It makes him somewhat valuable in NL only leagues as both an outfielder and a first baseman. He might last through some mixed leagues drafts, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore him.

A player with Myers’ talent should never be completely ignored. You just never know when he could come out and explode. His former teammate Alex Gordon was about to land in baseball’s abyss when the Royals switched him from the infield to left field. Now, he is one of the game’s best. Perhaps Myers is on the same career track. It isn’t likely, but neither was Gordon’s rise to prominence.

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