The Chicago Cubs nabbed arguably the biggest name on the free agent board when they signed Jason Heyward to an eight year 184 million dollar contract. Naturally, like with the John Lackey signing, the Cubs simultaneously get stronger and weaken their division rivals at the same time. Like most modern long-term deals, it offers a pair of opt outs that would allow Heyward to become a free agent sooner. But he will be a Cub for at least three seasons barring trade.

Why the Cubs made this move

Jason Heyward if anything is a triumph of analytics. He challenges the boundaries of what we consider valuable. Sure, the guys with the slide rules and pocket protectors have known about defensive value for years. The fact that the general public has bought into this definition of value is a triumph. The Cubs just paid 23 million per season to a guy that hit .293/13/79/60/23 in 2015. True, he has strong on-base skills, but the vast majority of his value comes on the defensive end.

Heyward had 2.0 dWAR last season according to baseball-reference. That led him to an overall WAR score of 6.5 in 2015. That followed a season where he had 6.2 WAR. Obviously, 2015 wasn’t a fluke. Four of his six seasons have seen him with 5.8 WAR or better. He was fifth among position players in WAR in 2015. So, the pedestrian looking numbers are hiding tremendous value.

Unfortunately, this is where the positives stop. The Cubs intend to use Heyward in center field with Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber surrounding him. Heyward has only 233 innings in center field in his career. He is +3 runs above average in those 233 innings throughout his career. This is as opposed to +119 runs above average he has in his career in right field (6756 innings). So, you’ve effectively taken a guy because of his defense and then put him at a position where you’ve stripped him of his advantage. Not only that, you haven’t exactly surrounded him with gifted defenders on either side.

There is still time in the offseason to correct this. The Cubs could trade Scwarber or Soler for more pitching and then sign one of the free agent center fielders out there. Over time, Heyward will probably end up being a neutral defender in center field and therefore less valuable overall. The hope is that as he approaches his later twenties that he will develop a little more power. Otherwise, they Cubs may have hamstrung themselves.

What this deal means for you

Fantasy baseball players don’t care about dWAR, defensive runs saved, or even WAR. They care about batting average, home runs, runs, RBI, and stolen bases. In those areas, Heyward can appear to be very underwhelming. That being said, he does offer a little bit of everything on the stat sheet. Also, the Cubs would appear to have a better offense going forward than the Cardinals. So, we could see more runs and RBI out of Heyward in the future than what he has given. The hope going forward for Heyward and Cubs fans is that the power will finally begin to materialize, but I’m not holding my breath.

Obviously, this creates a domino effect with the Cardinals. They have a choice of whether to go with their younger outfielders or to immediately go into the free agent market and bring in one of the other veterans. They are rumored to be in on Alex Gordon and Chris Davis. It remains to be seen what will happen along those lines, but everything is beginning to take shape.