The Chicago White Sox pulled the trigger on the first significant trade of the 2016 season when they traded starter Erik Johnson and minor leaguer Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres in exchange for James Shields and cash. The deal obviously signals the fact that the Padres have become sellers and they have managed to sell one of their bigger contracts.

Why the White Sox make this deal

The White Sox are in the midst of pennant race and they have two very good starting pitchers on top of their rotation in Chris Sale (9-2, 2.54 ERA) and Jose Quintana (5-5, 2.13 ERA), but they have struggled of late after those two guys. Mat Latos and Carlos Rodon have been decent enough and adding Shields gives them another starter that can give them six or seven solid innings every time out. Of course, Shields has not been as good as he has been in recent seasons, but he is still on pace to throw more than 200 innings for the tenth season in a row. That may not sound great to the old-timers in our audience, but it is the longest streak currently in the game.

Currently, Shields is 2-7 with a 4.28 ERA, but that has come on a team that has slipped to the bottom of the NL West standings. The White Sox are in second place and are probably hoping that he will rebound with a winner. When you consider that the Padres are reportedly sending 31 million of the 58 million remaining on his contract, the White Sox are essentially getting a 9 million per season starter. Anyone that can give you 200 innings per season is certainly worth nine million dollars a year.

Why the Padres make this deal

Essentially, the biggest part of this deal from the Padres perspective is that they essentially rid themselves of nearly half of his contract for the next three seasons. While they are sending 31 million, they will essentially save 9 million dollars per season. If they are able to unload Matt Kemp, they will save nearly 20 million per season even after you allow for the money they will likely have to send to the other team.

Erik Johnson has spent parts of the last four seasons in Chicago and has 18 combined starts during that time. He is a combined 7-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 98 innings. If we assume he pitches at that level, we can assume that he will probably approximate a 4.00 ERA pitching in Petco Park. Of course, nothing is ever that simple. His career FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 5.68, so he will probably be closer to a 5.00 ERA if he pitched full time in San Diego. So, he would be slightly worse than Shields has been if we are to believe what he has done so far.

The White Sox had signed the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis to a 700-thousand dollar signing bonus last season. He will turn 17 this season, so he is obviously still several years away of making an impact. He was signed as a shortstop, but scouts and experts agree he will likely be a third baseman or outfielder in the future. They say he has good power potential, so we will have to see.

What this deal means for you

A number of people still own James Shields. He is owned by 76 percent of teams in Yahoo and nearly 50 percent of ESPN leagues. This deal for those owners is a mixed bag. Obviously, the Padres are a struggling team and most of their starting pitchers won’t win a ton of games there. The White Sox have a better offense, so he will likely get better run support. On the flip side, Petco Park might be the best pitcher’s park in baseball while New Comiskey has traditionally been a hitter’s park.

The numbers bear this out as the Padres are 20th in the big leagues in run scoring, but the White Sox are actually worse with two fewer runs scored on the season. So, the extra run support theory would seem to be blown. The second theory is that the White Sox are a better team, so his numbers would improve with improved defense behind him. The Padres are 22nd in defensive efficiency rating (DER) with a .682. That means that when a ball is put in play, their fielders convert it into outs about 68 percent of the time. The White Sox stand in 6th with a .702 DER. In this case it may actually be reasonable to believe his performance will improve.