Evaluating and ranking starting pitchers is difficult at best. Unlike their position player counterparts, pitchers are extremely reliant on the fielders behind him, the hitters for run support, and the bullpen to preserve their leads. Wins haven’t had the stranglehold on the game that they had in the past, but many are still mesmerized by brilliant won-loss records. Talent evaluators know that wins are the last statistic you look at, but wins and WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) are based at least partially on the support of teammates.

That coupled with the advancement of daily fantasy sports makes evaluating those pitchers more difficult than many might think. Like with the position players, we will include total points (our own formula), the standard four categories, and a fifth category (quality starts). We will divide the universe into five articles with each article profiling a dozen pitchers. Twelve teams tends to be the average in fantasy leagues and those twelve teams will employ five pitchers a piece on average.

Total points = (2) Innings + Strikeouts + (3) Wins – Walks – Hits – ER – (3) Losses

Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	27	383		14.19
2016	21	358		17.05
2015	33	532		16.12
2014	27	480		17.78
2013	33	461		13.97
AVG	28	443	2	15.82	1

Aggregate: 17 Wins, 1.95 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 229 SO, 23 QS           4 Category: 1

Per 162: 17 Wins, 2.36 ERA, 1.002 WHIP, 248 SO, 24 QS                5 Category: 2

Steamer: 16 Wins, 2.76 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 240 SO, —                     DRS: -2

Kershaw is a sure fire Hall of Famer. The only question is whether he will go down as Sandy Koufax or Randy Johnson. The only thing that has ever gotten in his way has been health. He has missed significant chunks of three of the last four seasons. Otherwise, he would likely have at least one more Cy Young award to his name. Steamer is projecting a step backwards, but even then he will still be the best in baseball.

Max Scherzer—Washington Nationals 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	31	461		14.87
2016	34	483		14.21
2015	33	457		13.85
2014	33	395		11.97
2013	32	445		13.91
AVG	33	448	1	13.58	3

Aggregate: 18 Wins, 2.86 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, 264 SO, 24 QS         4 Category: 2

Per 162: 16 Wins, 3.30 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 243 SO, 21 QS                 5 Category: 1

Steamer: 15 Wins, 3.39 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 257 SO, —-                    DRS: -1

Attendance is still part of the grade, so some would be defensible in selecting Scherzer as the first pitcher off the board. He has three Cy Youngs and also has punched his ticket for the Hall of Fame. Interestingly enough, his per 162 numbers are worse because they chronicle his entire career instead of just the past five seasons. Clearly he has taken a step forward since moving to Washington.

Chris Sale—Boston Red Sox 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	32	486		15.19
2016	32	387		12.09
2015	31	490		15.81
2014	26	370		14.23
2013	30	342		11.40
AVG	30	415	3	13.83	2

Aggregate: 14 Wins, 2.98 ERA, 1.027 WHIP, 250 SO, 23 QS             4 Category: 3

Per 162: 14 Wins, 2.98 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, 240 SO, 20 QS                 5 Category: 3

Steamer: 15 Wins, 3.18 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, 242 SO, —–                   DRS: +2

Unlike the others, Sale began his career in the bullpen, so the per 162 game data lags a little. Sale was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the AL last year but faded down the stretch and in the playoffs. That leaves some to want to back off of Sale for this season. That might be, but he hasn’t had any problems yet in his career.

Corey Kluber—Cleveland Indians 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	29	485		16.72
2016	32	382		11.94
2015	32	348		10.88
2014	34	444		13.06
2013	26	199		7.65
AVG	31	372	4	12.00	4

Aggregate: 15 Wins, 3.03 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 228 SO. 20 QS           4 Category: 4

Per 162: 16 Wins, 3.13 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 247 SO, 22 QS                 5 Category: 4

Steamer: 14 Wins, 3.28 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 224 SO, —-                    DRS: -1

Kluber is a great example of why wins are highly deceiving. His 2014 season was legitimately better than his others, but the distance between them was not nearly as much as the won-loss records would have you believe. A 9-16 record looks like an awful season, but it was really just bad luck. Invest in the other three categories and you will usually come out ahead. Add in that fifth category and you definitely will come out ahead.

Madison Bumgarner—San Francisco Giants 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	17	149		8.59
2016	34	419		12.32
2015	32	406		12.69
2014	33	368		11.15
2013	31	343		11.06
AVG	29	336	5	11.59	5

Aggregate: 14 Wins, 2.95 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, 201 SO, 20 QS          4 Category: 5

Per 162: 15 Wins, 3.01 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 217 SO, 23 QS                 5 Category: 5

Steamer: 13 Wins, 3.69 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 198 SO, —–                   DRS: +2

Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 14 postseason starts and 16 total postseason games. It is easy to see why some fantasy players might overvalue him with a record like that. His 2017 season will likely drop him to where he should be. The fifth spot is based primarily on past performance. Steamer points to some regression which could drop him to the bottom of the top ten or even lower. That being said, the Giants should be better offensively and defensively next season, so there is hope for improvement in these numbers.

Zack Greinke—Arizona Diamondbacks 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	32	360		11.25
2016	26	189		7.27
2015	32	463		14.47
2014	32	344		10.75
2013	28	285		10.18
AVG	30	328	6	10.93	7

Aggregate: 16 Wins, 2.91 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 181 SO, 21 QS             4 Category: 6

Per 162: 15 Wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 189 SO, 22 QS                 5 Category: 6

Steamer: 13 Wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 195 SO, —–                   DRS: +4

The Dbacks are actively shopping Greinke and there have been no takers. That says more about the pitching market than anything about Greinke. He is a legitimate ace, but pitchers almost always fail to live up their hefty price whether in real baseball or fantasy baseball. From here it can be difficult to discern the difference between the very good and the pretty good. There is a difference, but the differences between very good and merely good position players might be greater.

Stephen Strasburg—Washington Nationals 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	28	360		12.86
2016	24	288		12.00
2015	23	231		10.04
2014	34	365		10.74
2013	30	301		10.03
AVG	28	309	8	11.04	6

Aggregate: 13 Wins, 3.14 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 195 SO, 18 QS            4 Category: 7

Per 162: 16 Wins, 3.07 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 238 SO, 22 QS                5 Category: 11

Steamer: 14 Wins, 3.44 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 216 SO, —–                   DRS: 0

The Nationals have had two of the top five starters in the National League for the past several seasons but have never advanced to the World Series. That would have been unthinkable twenty or thirty years ago, but it goes to show that the importance of starting pitchers is not what it used to be. Still, Steamer’s projections demonstrate that he Is closer to his peak than the pitchers immediately before in the rankings.

David Price—Boston Red Sox

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	16	116		7.25
2016	35	333		9.51
2015	32	407		12.72
2014	34	418		12.29
2013	27	255		9.44
AVG	29	306	9	10.55	12

Aggregate: 13 Wins, 3.28 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 190 SO, 19 QS           4 Category: 11

Per 162: 16 Wins, 3.27 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 216 SO, 21 QS                 5 Category: 12

Steamer: 13 Wins, 3.81 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 181 SO, —–                  DRS: +1

One of the biases that is difficult to overcome is the recency bias. In the case of Price that would be his performance in the playoffs last season. He didn’t make it back from injury in time to reinsert himself in the playoff rotation, but he was healthy enough to be a key reliever in the ALDS. He pitched in two of the four games and hurled six and two thirds scoreless innings. That’s enough to make us believe he is back.

Carlos Carrasco—Cleveland Indians 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	32	370		11.56
2016	25	229		9.16
2015	30	317		10.57
2014	40	241		6.03
AVG	32	289	10	9.03	20

Aggregate: 13 Wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.075 WHIP, 183 SO, 14 QS          4 Category: 10

Per 162: 13 Wins, 3.78 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 193 SO, 20 QS                5 Category: 14

Steamer: 13 Wins, 3.48 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 191 SO, ——                 DRS: +3

Carrasco has only been a full-time for only three seasons. So we could almost ignore his 2014 numbers and focus on 2015 through 2017. If we do that then he averages 305 points per season and over ten points per game. In that prism his ninth place ranking makes a lot more sense. Add to that a ton of support from a great bullpen and a nice lineup and his overall profile plays up. This doesn’t even mention the fact that he is coming off a great season.

Jacob deGrom—New York Mets 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	31	338		10.90
2016	24	208		8.67
2015	30	364		12.13
2014	22	231		10.50
AVG	27	285	12	10.56	11

Aggregate: 11 Wins, 2.95 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, 183 SO, 19 QS             4 Category: 13

Per 162: 14 Wins, 2.98 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 232 SO, 22 QS                 5 Category: 13

Steamer: 13 Wins, 3.47 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 226 SO, —–                   DRS: -2

The Mets are an interesting study in the development of young pitching. In three different decades (1980s, 2000s, 2010s) they have developed a group of young pitchers that were supposed to dominate the game. Each time, only one pitcher has emerged from that group to come close to expectations. deGrom is that guy from the current group. As long as he is healthy is a solid top ten option.

Jake Arrieta—Free Agent 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	30	240		8.00
2016	31	332		10.71
2015	33	499		15.12
2014	25	295		11.80
2013	14	73		5.21
AVG	27	288	11	10.67	10

Aggregate: 14 Wins, 3.14 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 163 SO, 17 QS           4 Category: 12

Per 162: 15 Wins, 3.57 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 188 SO, 21 QS                 5 Category: 16

Steamer: 11 Wins, 4.20 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 157 SO, —–                   DRS: -2

Arrieta’s 2017 season didn’t do him any favors. Take away his 2013 campaign and he easily would be a top five or six pitcher according to the numbers, but that belies the evidence of rot that every team undoubtedly notices. This is keeping him from getting that five or six year deal most big time hurlers covet. Still, he is a decent bet for one more season of all-star quality performance depending on who signs him.

Justin Verlander—Houston Astros 

	G	TP	Rank	TP/G	Rank
2017	33	333		10.09
2016	34	424		12.47
2015	20	175		8.75
2014	32	188		5.88
2013	34	285		8.38
AVG	31	281	14	9.06	19

Aggregate: 13 Wins, 3.56 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 192 SO, 21 QS             4 Category: 17

Per 162: 17 Wins, 3.46 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 213 SO, 23 QS                 5 Category: 15

Steamer: 14 Wins, 3.95 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 229 SO, —–                   DRS: 0

When evaluating pitchers in an analytical sense we try to distill out the costs and benefits of the team the pitcher pitches on. In other words, Verlander shouldn’t get any extra credit for pitching on the best team in baseball. Yet, in fantasy terms we have to consider these things. Steamer obviously isn’t considering that. All things considered, he should be better than that and that is why he winds up making the first cut of starting pitchers.