Over the next 45 days the staff here at The Fix will profile and predict the fantasy fates of prospects that could – should, in some cases – be closely monitored on the waiver wire or even in the draft room.

For the projection portion of the article, we will try our best to give you projections from all three major projection systems. Those projection systems are: ZiPS, Steamer, and Oliver. Oliver varies from the other two by projecting what a player would accomplish over 600 PA. Obviously, most prospects won’t reach 600 PA, due to various reasons. It can help to pay more attention to the rate stats that are included in order to get a clearer idea of what you’re dealing with in a particular player.

Profile

If I happened to be a more accomplished writer, this entire piece would be nothing but a series of poems dedicated to Javier Baez’s bat speed. Unfortunately, due to my limited skill, that is not possible, so you’ll have to settle for a few gifs.

Each of those blasts are from Spring Training; where Baez has left the yard three more times. It’s fairly obvious to see why the Cubs, their fans, and talent evaluators gush over Baez.

His bat speed is tremendous, which allows him to hit for insane amounts of power to all fields. His athletic ability will allow him to have a home on the infield, whether it is at third, shortstop, or second base, which makes him much more valuable due to the edge his offense will give him over his peers.

Baez’s offensive ceiling is one of the highest ones in the minor leagues right now. In fact, when accounting for position, you could argue that he’s nearly even with Twins’ phenom Byron Buxton from a fantasy standpoint.

Pundits

Oh man, scouts love to write about Baez. If you read BP’s Jason Parks, you know by now that he has quite the crush on Baez. Proof, if number 4 overall ranking wasn’t enough:

Baez might lack Buxton’s overall athleticism or Bogaerts’ polish, but the 21-year-old Puerto Rican might have the highest offensive ceiling of any player in the minors, a potential middle-of-the-order force capable of hitting for average and obnoxious game power. While he’s no longer a true boom-or-bust prospect, Baez carries more risk than the average high-end prospect with Double-A experience because of the extreme projections on his tools and the balls-to-the-wall approach he often brings to all sides of the game. As Baez matures and adds more patience at the plate and more confidence in the field, he should develop into one of the game’s elite players, a left-side infielder (short or third) with an offensive attack that some scouts project to achieve Miguel Cabrera-level heights, an extreme comparison but one that his elite bat speed and power potential could make a reality if everything clicks. He needs to shorten up against arm-side pitching and stay in his approach, and he needs to slow the game down in the field and let his hands and arm help the cause rather than hurt it, but he should continue to crush in the upper minors and force a major-league decision at some point in 2014. The Cubs could have a generational talent in Baez.

So, within that blurb, we have a Cabrera mention, a generational talent mention, and a “highest offensive ceiling” mention. Not too shabby.

Law wrote the following about the man he ranked 7th overall:

Baez has the best bat speed of any hitter in the minors right now, and the ball explodes off his bat like he’s splitting atoms with contact.

He’s got 30-plus home run power, and showed at least some signs in the second half of 2012 that he could improve his plate discipline, working the count a little more effectively in some of his plate appearances. He’s still prone to the at-bat where you watch him and wonder what he was thinking, the kind of brain cramp that won’t be forgiven in the big leagues, but he can turn around the next time and hit a ball 400 feet the other way if the pitcher tries the same trick twice.

Baez is agile enough to handle shortstop, and could even be average or a tick better there, but his arm will play anywhere on the diamond and he’s quick enough to handle second if the Cubs move him there. Wherever he plays, he’ll probably start his career as a low-walk guy, maybe a .270/.310/.450 type of hitter right out of the chute, but the progress he showed in 2013 may give us hope he can improve that OBP in time and become an MVP candidate

Law brought his A-game. He held his own by mentioning Baez as a future MVP candidate, and compared his quality of contact to “splitting atoms.”

Most write-ups are conservative by design, but it’s obvious that both Law and Parks decided to just get NSFW and write smut in regards to Baez. Salute.

Minor League Production

Baez destroyed the minor leagues in 2013. Baez smashed 37 homers in 577 plate appearances last season – a rough equivalent of a full MLB season. His aggressive approach has lead to high strikeout totals, but his walk rate has also increased at every stop, which, at this point, could be because pitchers are finally beginning to attack him carefully, or have begun attempting to pitch around him.

Baez’s aggressiveness isn’t a death knell, because he has done a pretty good job of crushing mistakes so far. And, I’ve read, although the link alludes me at the moment, that Baez does a decent job of being aggressive in the zone, as opposed to flailing wildly at pitches out of the zone. Essentially, Baez has the confidence that he can hit everything in the zone, and it’s hard to argue with him at the moment.

Projections

The systems used above see a player that will produce a good bit of power, but will struggle getting on base. A .240 batting average isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be, and of course keep in mind, that we’re dealing with a player with no MLB experience, so he could be better or worse than this, although I’m betting on the former.

The following players hit less than .260 last season while slugging greater than .470.

Unless Baez completely changes his DNA at the plate, he won’t have an approach similar to Bautista or Stanton. It’s simply too hard to see him having a walk rate that high. However, you’ll notice I have highlighted Alfonso Soriano and Pedro Alvarez in blue. That was done because their 2013 lines aren’t far from what projection systems see from the 22-year old middle infielder.

Soriano is an overlooked fantasy asset because of his batting average and poor OBP, but he was the 26th most valuable player last season, according to ESPN. Pedro Alvarez came in at 111, despite hitting .233 and only stealing one base.

I believe in Baez’s hit tool will improve in the future and allow time to hit, for say a .270-ish average, but even if he’s around his ZiPS projection you’re looking at essentially a lighter version of Alvarez’s power with 18 steals, and SS eligibility. Despite the wart, which might not always be the case, in the average category, it’s a nice package.

Prediction

Baez will be in the majors this season, the only question is what month it will occur in. Starlin Castro is still manning shortstop, but the Cubs are trying to give themselves flexibility by playing Baez at 2B this spring. And by all accounts, if Baez can help, sooner rather than later, he’ll be up.

Baez is a must add once his name is called. In fact, draft him if you have deep rosters, because you’re going to want him whenever he’s blasting balls out of Wrigley.

Since 2008, there have been four seasons in which a shortstop hit 30 or more home runs. In that same span, there have only been nine seasons of 25 or more home runs from shortstops. It’s pretty clear, that Baez has the ability to do that, and perhaps even flirt with 40 in due time. Throw in 15-20 steals, and you’re looking at, quite possibly, the most valuable fantasy asset in the game when he gets into his prime.

Baez will undoubtedly have to adjust his approach a little – all prospects do once the league adjusts to them. And there is no reason, thus far, to think that he won’t be able to do that.