Over the next 45 days the staff here at The Fix will profile and predict the fantasy fates of prospects that could – should, in some cases – be closely monitored on the waiver wire or even in the draft room.

For the projection portion of the article, we will try our best to give you projections from all three major projection systems. Those projection systems are: ZiPS, Steamer, and Oliver. Oliver varies from the other two by projecting what a player would accomplish over 600 PA. Obviously, most prospects won’t reach 600 PA, due to various reasons. It can help to pay more attention to the rate stats that are included in order to get a clearer idea of what you’re dealing with in a particular player.

Profile

Kyle Zimmer is the last pitcher I’ll be profiling for our prospect series, but that is not a slight on him. When our list was created, I wanted to hold him back, because I wasn’t quite sure what his timetable was. After ending 2013 on an absolute tear, joining the Royals early in the season didn’t seem impossible, nor did it seem improbable.

Since then, Zimmer’s shoulder issues, which ended his 2013 campaign, have been in the news a little. The shoulder issues may have wiped out his chances of jumping to Kansas City early, but don’t fret too much, because his innings were going to be limited anyways.

Semantics out of the way, Zimmer has the profile and stuff of a front of the rotation arm. As fans, we sometimes forget that it’s nearly impossible to scout a stat line. So, if by chance you’re a Royals fan, his 4.82 ERA in high-A last season scared you, you probably weren’t alone. Pay that information no mind.

Sometimes major league numbers can be iffy, so imagine how iffy minor league numbers can be. Gerrit Cole, for example, had lackluster numbers during his minor league career, but it’s quite obvious now that he is on his way towards being an ace.

Pitching stats in the minors should be used but used in conjunction with the scouting reports that accompany players. For example, Cole’s numbers might have been negatively influenced by Pittsburgh’s organizational philosophy. Their philosophy teaches fastball command and groundballs. So, in the minors their pitchers work on those two things. As a result, strikeouts might not be as plentiful, and pitchers may actually get hit harder than they would if they used their arsenal in a different manner. That logic applies to all pitchers in the minors because, it’s tough to know exactly what their respective teams may have them working on.

Despite his perceived struggles at High-A, the Royals promoted Zimmer to AA for four starts to end the year. And he did not disappoint posting a 2.83 FIP and striking out 36% of the batters he faced. More times than not, pure stuff will outrun bad luck, such was the case with Zimmer as he got deeper into 2013.

Pundits

If not for Yordano Ventura, and his flame-throwing ways, Zimmer would be the most coveted arm in Kansas City’s system. Due to his size, he may be a better bet for sustained rotation success anyways, but I digress.

Jason Parks recently ranked Zimmer 3rd in the Royals system, behind the aforementioned Ventura and young SS Raul Mondesi. Yes, that’s Raul Mondesi’s son. Parks praised Zimmer in the writeup.

Zimmer is a polished arm with high-end stuff, and in a lighter system, would be the marquee name on the farm. The fastball is an easy plus offering, working low-to-mid-90s as a starter and touching higher when he needs to go get it. The curveball is one of the better hammers in the minors, a plus pitch that some already have plus-plus grades on. He can drop it for strikes or for chase, and with a slider also in the arsenal, Zimmer has a potent assortment of secondary stuff to miss barrels and force weak contact. He’s going to reach the major-league level in 2014, and should develop into rotation horse as a floor and an impact no. 2 starter if everything falls into place.

Pretty good, right? So many young arms seem to lack a quality secondary offering, so it’s encouraging to read that a prospect has more than one secondary offering in his arsenal. Well, Keith Law actually likes him a little more, and subsequently ranked him 17th overall, tops in the Royals’ system. Law wrote the following:

Zimmer will show you two 70-grade pitches in addition to his 93-97 mph fastball — a yellow hammer curveball with depth and angle, and a mid-80s changeup with great arm speed and some late action to it. He’s an outstanding athlete, as you might expect from a converted position player, and has less mileage on his arm than most college products.

He does use a fourth pitch, a below-average slider that he needs to junk or at least limit to just a few pitches a game, and he has a tendency to rush off the rubber and speed up his entire delivery, costing him command and reducing his body control through the process.

Zimmer finished his season on fire, punching out 63 and walking eight in his last eight starts of the summer, half of them after a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and as long as his shoulder is happy he should move quickly to Triple-A. He’s the future ace the Royals have been trying to develop since they traded Zack Greinke.

How’s that for praise? I have only watched Zimmer’s highlights, but that write-up alone has me excited.

To recap: mid-90’s heat, possibly the top curve in the minors, a developing change-up, and a usable slider for change of pace. Not too shabby.

Minor League Production

Zimmer’s minor league production is good, and to a certain extent, what we expect from polished college pitchers with overpowering stuff.  Zimmer’s groundball rate, which is not in the graph above, has also been good during his minor league career, sitting at 50.3% through 148 innings.

Projections

Prediction

The Royals named Yordano Ventura their number three starter recently. It’s not surprising, given Ventura’s stuff, but it also bodes well for Zimmer. The Royals, now more than ever, are in win now mode. After trading Wil Myers for James Shields, that realization shot to the forefront of the conversation around the Royals. If Zimmer can help, he may make an appearance in KC this year. Maybe, but probably not.

First and foremost, the Royals need to make sure he is healthy. Once he regains his footing again at the minor league level, the Royals will likely slowly build him towards his limit, and perhaps, if he is dominant, a few of those final innings could be in a Royals uni. Zimmer’s fantasy impact in 2014 will likely be nominal, but his long term ceiling is as high as its ever been.