Over the next 45 days the staff here at The Fix will profile and predict the fantasy fates of prospects that could – should, in some cases – be closely monitored on the waiver wire or even in the draft room.

For the projection portion of the article, we will try our best to give you projections from all three major projection systems. Those projection systems are: ZiPS, Steamer, and Oliver. Oliver varies from the other two by projecting what a player would accomplish over 600 PA. Obviously, most prospects won’t reach 600 PA, due to various reasons. It can help to pay more attention to the rate stats that are included in order to get a clearer idea of what you’re dealing with in a particular player.

Profile

That’s all you need to know about Carlos Martinez. He’s very, very good. He throws hard and is capable of buckling your knees without question.

Martinez has a tremendous fastball, a tremendous, but sometimes inconsistent, change-up, good breaking ball (as evidenced above). It remains to be seen if he’ll be a starter long term. In the short term, the Cardinals’ rotation is a little crowded, although with Jaime Garcia’s seemingly always present injury concerns, Martinez is only one call away from a spot in line.

Pundits

Martinez graduated from most prospect lists after being called up in 2013, so I’ll be relying on lists that were compiled going into to last year. Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks ranked Martinez 43rd at the beginning of the season, but bumped him to 22nd overall during his midseason update. Keith Law had him 39th.

Law had the following to say:

Martinez has top-of-the-rotation stuff, with a mid-90s fastball that he can dial up to 100, a hard low-80s curveball with sharp two-plane break, and a solid-average changeup that will flash better than that but for which he doesn’t have the same feel as the other two pitches. He’s listed at 6-foot, 165 pounds, and his slight frame earns comparisons to Pedro Martinez (who also had a better changeup, for that matter), so the bout of shoulder soreness is less than ideal.

Parks basically felt the same way:

If Martinez can stay healthy and continue to refine his arsenal, he has the chance to be a very special arm. His long-term role is still up for debate, with the secondary stuff and command to excel as a starter, but with some concerns about his physical stability in a rotation coupled with his elite potential in the bullpen, others think he is destined for the late-innings.

Obviously, I’m not a scout, but I believe Martinez can start. I hope he is given the chance unlike cough Trevor Rosenthal cough.

Minor/Major League Production

Martinez hasn’t struggled much. More often than not, he’s dominated fairly easily. Given how good his stuff is, none of that is surprising. The upper levels of the minor league have fairly reliable batted ball data, so it’s very encouraging seeing how adept Martinez has been keeping the ball on ground given his relatively short stature. Until Martinez reached the majors, he was used almost exclusively as a starter, so that should bode well for the future – assuming the franchise still views him under the same light.

Projections

Usual caveats apply here. Playing time is hard to project, the systems aren’t sure on roles, etc. Steamer is easily the highest projection system. Oliver is on the low end. And ZiPS splits the middle quite nicely. The Fans, per usual, are optimistic, considering only nine qualified starters posted a FIP below 3.00 last season.

Martinez, who will only be 23 on Opening Day is projected to already be at least league average or better by my two go-to systems (Steamer & ZiPS). And that matters because, despite his short track record at the major league level, he’s projected to be better than his main competition – Joe Kelly, Tyler Lyons, and Jaime Garcia – for a rotation spot.

Prediction

Martinez is one my absolute favorite young arms. Part of my infatuation with him is based purely on aesthitics. Something about an undersized pitcher pumping high-90’s heat really intrigues me. Partly because it’s absolutely amazing.

Martinez is currently vying for the fifth spot in the Cardinals’ rotation. Jaime Garcia is coming off shoulder surgery and has already issues this spring on his road towards a comeback. Joe Kelly is solid, but he’s replaceable and maybe better suited to be a swingman where his velocity plays up once he really airs his arm out.

Martinez’s situation is similar to Kevin Gausman’s, who I profiled earlier, except for the fact that the Cardinals can afford to be patient because they’re a projected first place team. Could Martinez shine in the ‘pen? Sure, he’s done it already. But I also believe he could be very impressive in a starter’s role. Ultimately all that matters is how the Cardinals feel.

Watch spring training closely because Martinez might just be in the rotation at the end of it. These things tend to work themselves out. Injuries happen. Even if Martinez isn’t in the rotation once the Cards break camp, he’ll likely be the first one to slide into the rotation once someone struggles or suffers an injury. My guess: once he cracks the rotation, he’s not leaving it. Invest, invest, invest.