Entering 2011, Jon Lester was a well-established pitcher.  In many leagues, he was a top 20-25 fantasy starter.  He was only expected to continue that trend, but in 2012, that all changed. Lester posted his worst SIERA since 2008, and his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 4.82 and 1.38, respectively.  But he is off to a promising start in 2013.  And although Lester is ranked again as a top 25 fantasy starter, should we believe it?

Let’s find the positives in Jon Lester’s 2013 start.  His HR/FB% has declined significantly from 2012, and is even lower than his career rate, sitting currently at 8.8%.  This is 5.1% lower than last season.  His Walk% is a tick lower, and according to Pitch F/X, his current Zone% is 49.6%, which is 4.5% higher than last season.  Lester’s first pitch strike percentage is also up slightly from last season but is in line with the league average.  His 72.7 LOB% is currently around league average, but is up from last season’s 67.6%.  These are all positive changes that certainly bode well for Lester’s 2013 campaign.

So what’s the issue?  Well, nothing else has really changed, or at least changed for the better.  His swinging strike rate continues to decline and is now at 7.4%, which is below the league average. He is giving up more contact, and there is a significant decline in his IFFB%.  Last season, Lester was 5th among qualified pitchers in IFFB%.  If this new trend continues, he could be toward the bottom for 2013.

His K% is only a smidge higher in 2013 than it was in 2012.  But considering Lester is giving up more contact than in 2012, including his highest O-Contact% since 2008, as well as getting fewer swinging strikes than ever before, this looks like fool’s gold.  His K% is on the verge of declining for a 4th straight season, and it is becoming very pedestrian.

Lester’s velocity isn’t a concern and his pitch usage seems pretty consistent with prior years.  Brooksbaseball.net gives us a bit more detail on why Lester may not be getting as many swings and misses.  His Whiff% on the cutter and curveball has decreased each year since 2010.  Lester’s change-up is getting an increase in whiffs, but he only throws the pitch about 11% of the time.  The horizontal movement on his cutter started to really change in 2012, and since, his whiffs have decreased greatly.

Add it all up, and Lester isn’t fooling hitters as much anymore.

Perhaps the early success that Lester is showing this season is merely because he isn’t falling behind hitters as often and pitching more in the zone.  Or maybe Lester has been on the decline since 2011 but just happened to get a bit lucky with his 78.1 LOB% and unlucky in 2012 with his 67.6 LOB%.  What does that mean for 2013?

There are some concerning trends that are continuing from 2012, and when putting the pieces together, there is not a clear change in positive skill from last season.  Lester hasn’t changed his pitch usage, and his swings and misses are only decreasing.  If there isn’t a clear change in skill, then we should assume his current BABIP, which is almost 50 points lower than his career average, should rise, as well as his HR/FB%.

It doesn’t seem as if Lester is creating a lot of weak contact, either.  His IFFB% is almost 10% lower than it was last season, and is practically half of what he normally produces.  His line drive rate, although slightly down from last season, is still league average.  With a SIERA of 3.74, it seems safe to assume Lester’s 3.15 ERA will rise.

If you are an owner expecting a top 20 pitcher the rest of the way, you may be setting your sights too high.  From the looks of it, Jon Lester seems to be around the 35 to 40 range for fantasy pitchers the rest of the way.  For some of you, that will mean you received nice value for where Lester was likely drafted.  For others, don’t buy high.  And for the rest, consider a sell now.

Written exclusively for TheFantasyfix.com by Richard Migliorisi