A Look Back at the 2013 Draft: NL Catchers
There are always little pecularities when you break down fantasy baseball into individual leagues. One of those is that each league has positions that are strong and positions that are weak. In the case of catching, we notice that the National League is considerably stronger than the American League. Of course, some of that strength has been zapped by suspension (Carlos Ruiz and Yasmani Grandal), but those players will be back well before the all-star break. While we don’t have individual draft results for NL or AL only leagues, the overall draft results can tell you which players were undervalued overall.
Just like last time, we will be using total average from Baseball Prospectus, batter runs from Fangraphs, and runs created from Baseball Reference to judge each player’s quality and durability from 2012. Obviously, expected improvement and long term track records should have a great effect on a player’s draft stock, but a quick look at last season is going to be helpful noneoftheless.
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Owned |
TAV |
BR |
RC |
|
Buster Posey |
99 |
.350 |
44.7 |
117 |
Yadier Molina |
98 |
.315 |
26.2 |
96 |
Wilin Rosario |
93 |
.274 |
5.5 |
61 |
Miguel Montero |
91 |
.295 |
15.7 |
86 |
Brian McCann |
78 |
.245 |
-7.9 |
51 |
Jonathan Lucroy |
64 |
.300 |
15.6 |
57 |
John Buck |
24 |
.232 |
-12.0 |
37 |
Jordan Pacheco |
19 |
.252 |
-4.1 |
66 |
Russell Martin |
15 |
.255 |
-2.6 |
53 |
A.J. Ellis |
12 |
.287 |
10.8 |
66 |
Welington Castillo |
6 |
.266 |
0.3 |
24 |
Wilson Ramos |
4 |
.284 |
0.4 |
12 |
Kurt Suzuki |
3 |
.225 |
-18.8 |
39 |
Rob Brantly |
2 |
.296 |
3.3 |
17 |
Yasmani Grandal |
2 |
.321 |
11.9 |
36 |
Ryan Hanigan |
1 |
.256 |
-5.6 |
41 |
Erik Kratz |
1 |
.292 |
2.2 |
22 |
Nick Hundley |
0 |
.174 |
-19.0 |
10 |
Carlos Ruiz |
N/A |
.331 |
25.8 |
82 |
Median |
—- |
.274 |
2.2 |
51 |
Let’s start with players that were a bit of a reach on draft day. If you look in the top half of the list and see a player who is below the median in any or multiple categories it is disconcerting. In particular, see Brian McCann picked as early as he was shocked me. Not only did he suffer through an injury riddled season last year, but he is beginning the season on the shelf. If Evan Gettis shows anything in the first two or three weeks then McCann will struggle to get his job back. I’m sure he will eventually, but he will be eased into the role which means he may not see regular starts until mid May or early June.
John Buck’s meteoric rise to the top was borders on the ridiculous. He hasn’t turned in a successful fantasy season in a few years and Travis D’Arnaud will likely take over the regular catching duties this summer. Even if he doesn’t, Buck will drag your team down with his horrible batting average and on base percentage. Sure, he has occasional power, but you can find that elsewhere.
We identified three sleepers on the American League list, so we’ll do that here as well. Carlos Ruiz and Yasmani Grandal really exist in their own category. You can look for them in late May when their suspensions will be coming to an end. If you are looking for the here and now you should start your search with Wilson Ramos. Ramos has already succeeded as a full-time catcher (unlike some of the others on the possible sleeper list) and plays for a contending team on the rise. The only drawback is that Kurt Suzuki is also a capable catcher and will eat into your at bats.
There is a school of thought that has fantasy players focusing on a catcher that won’t torpedo your rate statistics (AVG, OBP, SLG). I’m not necessarily one of those, but I am one that thinks that Ramos will get stronger as the season goes on. Jason Castro had a similar injury in 2011 and he performed a lot better in the second half of 2012. I would suspect that Ramos will begin to distance himself from Suzuki at that point.
Welington Castillo and Erik Kratz strike me as perfect sleeper candidates at this point in the season. If they are on your waiver wire, they represent a healthy risk/reward option for your squad. Kratz came on last season as Carlos Ruiz’s backup and now will get the bulk of the plate appearances until Ruiz returns. Those that pick him up could easily swap the two when Ruiz comes off the restricted list. Kratz showed an ability to get on base and hit for a little power last season in limited duty. A waiver pick up is an appropriate level of risk for a player of his caliber.
The Cubs annointed Castillo when they traded Geovany Soto last season. Steve Clevenger is also hanging around as a possible choice. However, Castillo proved a keep
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