The baseball world was rocked again when an arbitrator effectively held up the suspension for Alex Rodriguez. Initially, he was suspended for 215 games. He appealed the suspension (as was his right) and played through the end of the 2013 season. If he had accepted the suspension, it would have ended at the end of the 2014 season. So, he got a reprieve so he could finish the 2013 season.

I am a humble school teacher by trade, so my legal opinion is worth about as much as you paid to read this article. That being said, the whole basis behind suspending him for a season without a positive drug test is questionable at best. Even if we assume that the evidence brought forth is the same as a positive drug test, that would mean a 50 game suspension.

MLB said that Rodriguez tried to block their investigation and that was the reason for the additional games. Still, I don’t know how they got from 50 to 215 games. While there is no proof, one could argue that they wanted him suspended for the 2014 season and knew they would have to shoot for more than that.

I have not seen any of the evidence, so it is impossible for me to say with certainty that they overshot the wad, but it would seem like 100 games would have been appropriate given that the evidence said he used (first positive test) and that he tried to obstruct their investigation (another 50 games).

In fantasy terms, this amounts to much ado about not much. Rodriguez certainly belongs on the Mount Rushmore of the modern era (along with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Mark McGwire). However, his value has been diminished, at least when we look at it from a total run index perspective.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Hitting. . . . .Running. . . . .TRI

• 2009. . . . . . . .27.0. . . . . . . . .1.3. . . . . . . .28.3
• 2010. . . . . . . .18.2. . . . . . . ..-0.8. . . . . . . .17.4
• 2011. . . . . . . ..10.4.. . . . . . ..-2.0. . . . . . . . .8.4
• 2012. . . . . . . …8.9. . . . . . . ..-2.0. . . . . . . . .6.9
• 2013. . . . . . . …2.1. . . . . . . ..-0.7. . . . . . . . .1.4

It is true that his last season was cut short by injury, but even before then you could see his production slipping. Even if we assumed he were completely healthy, his level of production from previous seasons would lead us to believe that he would probably finish somewhere in the neighborhood of +5 runs.

Before we take a look at the position as a whole, we should consider who is going to replace him on the Yankees. With Kevin Youkilis signing in Japan, Kelly Johnson is the only possible third baseman they have on the roster. However, Mark Reynolds and Michael Young are possible free agents that could fit the bill. Unlike Arod, let’s simply take a look at the TRI totals for the two players.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Reynolds. . . . . . . .Young

• 2009. . . . . . . . .22.7. . . . . . . . . . . .21.7
• 2010. . . . . . . . ..-2.6. . . . . . . . . . . . .5.3
• 2011. . . . . . . . ..10.8. . . . . . . . . . . .22.3
• 2012. . . . . . . . .. .3.2. . . . . . . . . . ..-12.5
• 2013. . . . . . . . ..-3.7. . . . . . . . . . . . .-3.3

Mark Reynolds is all over the place. If you take their respective averages, we see that Reynolds has a +3.4 average over the past three years and +6.1 average over the past five seasons. Michael Young is at +2.2 over the past three seasons and +6.4 over the past five seasons.

Sure, it looks like they are essentially the same player, but Young’s past two seasons indicate he is likely washed up while Reynolds has a reasonable chance to be a productive fantasy player. Last season he produces 21 home runs and 67 RBIs in just over 500 plate appearances. Moreover, he produced a .755 OPS in New York late in the season. He probably would be their best bet for a one season rental.

Fantasy players aren’t necessarily as interested in the Yankees depth chart as they are in the position’s depth as a whole. If we assume ARod would have produced around +5 runs then we could comfortably put him somewhere between David Freese, Todd Frazier, and Brett Lawrie. With all due respect to those players, they aren’t exactly fantasy gold. Even if we assume he produced better than Freese (which is questionable) he would be the 11th ranked third baseman according to total run index.

I don’t know if MLB was doing the Yankees a favor or not (some conspiracy theorists seem to think so), but spending a year without his salary is certainly better than the production he would have given them. It might even be enough to get them into the Masashiro Tanaka sweepstakes. That would be a win for them.