Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, rankings of the top plays at each position and some sample lineups for you to consider.

Pitching Perspective

Good luck finding value on an expensive pitcher today. Of the seven pitchers with a price tag of $8,500 or higher, none have a positive value grade according to my model. That essentially means that if I was in charge of setting pricing today based on my projected production, everyone of those pitchers would be cheaper.

Well, actually one would have the same price, and that’s Michael Wacha ($8,700). Wacha’s value grade is just barely in the negative, so I’d have him priced at $8,700 as well. He has a good matchup against the White Sox who have the third worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. That gives Wacha a solid floor for the day. Wacha, admittedly, may not have a ton of upside given his average strikeout rate and the White Sox being mid pack in terms of strikeout rate, but he’s a good cash game play.

If I was going to pay up for a pricier pitcher, it would be Danny Salazar ($9,900) or Jacob deGrom ($10,900). In terms of skills, both guys have similarly excellent numbers. Their strikeout and walk rates are superb and not all that different. In terms of batted ball profile, they both keep the ball on the ground at roughly the same rate, but deGrom manages contact better than Salazar. Salazar’s hard hit rate and HR/FB rate are both noticeably higher than deGrom’s, so that makes deGrom the more bankable play. But deGrom is also more expensive, and Salazar can twirl an absolute gem when he doesn’t allow much contact. My model likes Salazar’s value a bit more, which is to say it dislikes his value a bit less, but deGrom is the more logical cash game choice. Feel free to roll the dice with Salazar in GPPs.

Once you get past that $8,500 mark, you start to see more value. Just below that cut line is Chris Heston ($8,200) who has a solid value grade to go along with the third highest projection of the day behind only deGrom and Salazar. Heston has stifled right-handed hitters this year while struggling against lefties. Today he is facing the Padres, and the best left-handed hitter he’ll face is Yonder Alonso. This is about as good as a matchup can get for Heston, and the ball park is always going to be pitcher-friendly when these two teams meet.

Getting a bit cheaper, my model also likes Carlos Rodon ($6,200) quite a bit, so if that’s someone you like for any particular reason, you have my blessing. But with Rodon’s control issues, I don’t trust him. Plus, there are even cheaper options I’d rather gamble with today.

If I’m gambling today, I’m doing it with Aaron Nola ($5,300) or Raisel Iglesias ($4,300) who own by far the best value grades of the day according to my system. Nola will be making his major league debut for the Phillies tonight, and Steamer likes him to be a slightly above average pitcher. They have him projected for an average-ish strikeout rate and a slightly better than average walk rate leading to an ERA in the high threes. With a well below average price tag, an average stat line would have value. He’ll have a good shot at it against the Rays who are 10 percent below average against right-handed pitchers and have the fourth highest strikeout rate against RHP.

As for Iglesias, he has above average strikeout and walk rates in 29 innings of work this year. He’s had bad luck on balls in play and with men on base, which can happen easily enough in a small sample size. He hasn’t generated as much weak contact as you’d like to see, but for just $300 over the minimum price, his strikeout and walk skills are somewhat intriguing. He’s facing the Cubs who have the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and they’re 14 percent worse than average against RHP overall.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

It’s so boring to talk about Coors, but it’s impossible not to. The Rockies will host the Rangers again while Kyle Kendrick and Matt Harrison square off. Both guys have traditional splits with Kendrick being woeful against left-handed hitters and Harrison being below average, if not quite woeful, against righties.

The Rangers are an above average team against right-handed pitching, and they have plenty of left-handers who can handle Kendrick. Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor and Leonys Martin are all great values, and you can take your pick in the first base slot between Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland depending on how much money you have to spend. As for the Rox, Troy Tulowitzki, Wilin Rosario, Drew Stubbs and Michael McKenry are all well worth their price tags, and Nolan Arenado is an excellent spot to send big on a hitter if you so choose.

Vegas has the Rangers and Rockies way out in front of everyone else in terms of implied run totals, and the next group of teams behind them are all bunched fairly tightly. Seattle does stand out a bit from the crowd facing Shane Greene, and my model like the prices on guys like Brad Miller and Kyle Seager. But the Mariners have a sub-.300 wOBA against right-handers this year, so I’m not huge on stacking them.

In the next big group of teams, Vegas likes the Cubbies the most. I get that against Iglesias whose ERA is almost 6.00, but as I said, I think Iglesias has better days ahead. The Cubs are a good matchup for right-handers like Iglesias, so I’m betting against Vegas on this one. That said, Kyle Schwarber is a very nice value, and Anthony Rizzo makes plenty of sense against Iglesias. I just won’t be stacking the Cubs heavily.

The non-Coors stack I like the most is St. Louis against Rodon. Rodon has exhibited a traditional split so far, and righties are slugging .425 against the left-hander. This game is in Chicago where the HR as R park factor last year was 114, which was tied for the second highest in the league and just behind Coors at 115. After Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter at the top of that lineup, the Cards go pretty right-handed heavy. Matt Holliday, Johnny Peralta, Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk and Mark Reynolds all make plenty of sense today.

And finally, if you’re looking for a value stack, my model loves the value on the Pirates. They’re facing Jason Vargas who has allowed about a 45 percent fly ball rate to right-handed hitters for his career. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Jung-Ho Kang and Francisco Cervelli are all right-handed and should hit 3-4-5-6 tonight. They all have fantastic value grades, so that’s where you can save some money if you need to.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Wilin Rosario – $3,000 – Colorado Rockies
2. Kyle Schwarber – $3,200 – Chicago Cubs
3. Yadier Molina – $3,100 – St. Louis Cardinals

First Base

1. Anthony Rizzo – $5,000 – Chicago Cubs
2. Prince Fielder – $5,200 – Texas Rangers
3. David Ortiz – $4,100 – Boston Red Sox

Second Base

1. Rougned Odor – $4,000 – Texas Rangers
2. Jose Altuve – $4,500 – Houston Astros
3. Robinson Cano – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado – $5,000 – Colorado Rockies
2. Pablo Sandoval – $3,000 – Boston Red Sox
3. Kris Bryant – $4,500 – Chicago Cubs

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,600 – Colorado Rockies
2. Jung-Ho Kang – $3,400 – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Jhonny Peralta – $4,400 – St. Louis Cardinals

Outfield

1. Andrew McCutchen – $4,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Shin-Soo Choo – $3,900 – Texas Rangers
3. Starling Marte – $4,300 – Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Matt Holliday – $4,000 – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Leonys Martin – $3,400 – Texas Rangers
6. Drew Stubbs – $2,800 – Colorado Rockies
7. Christian Yelich – $3,900 – Miami Marlins

Starting Pitcher

1. Chris Heston – $8,200 – San Francisco Giants
2. Jacob deGrom – $10,900 – New York Mets
3. Michael Wacha – $8,700 – St. Louis Cardinals
4. Danny Salazar – $9,900 – Cleveland Indians
5. Raisel Iglesias – $4,300 – Cincinnati Reds
6. Aaron Nola – $5,300 – Philadelphia Phillies

Sample Lineups

Every day I play DFS, I take the projections you see above and run them through Fantasycruncher.com, a lineup optimization tool. Basically, it just tells me what the maximum number of projected points is that I can get into a lineup under the cap. Below is the optimal lineup it spit out for tonight using my projections.

The 3/3/2 format for a lineup is a pretty common lineup building strategy, and it’s nice that the optimizer spit out just such format on its first try. With Iglesias in there, this feels more like a GPP lineup, but I do really like how this lineup automatically includes some stacking with no manipulation from me. But if you’re looking for safer pitching options for cash games, here’s a lineup with my two favorite safe pitching options of the day.

And since I recommended a Cardinals stack, here is what the optimizer spits out when I lock Cards into the lineup.