How many times have you burned an early-round draft pick on a hotshot quarterback only to have a lousy fantasy football season? Many experienced fantasy football enthusiasts suggest that you need to wait until the very end of the draft to pick your quarterback.

Owners who wait until the final rounds justify their choice using the “Zero QB Theorem.” The Zero QB Theorem says that when you eliminate the quarterback’s points on any winning fantasy football team, that team still wins most of its head-to-head matchups. Now, before you start going for your US online sportsbooks and assuming you’ve learned the secret to fantasy football, take a look at the arguments for — and against — the Zero QB Theorem. If you enjoy sports investing on sites such as Ghost Betting, check out these sports investing strategies to help you invest smarter.

You Don’t Need a Great QB to Have a Winning Season

You may be tempted to go for an elite quarterback in the early rounds of the draft, but many fantasy football experts say that the QB isn’t a real difference-maker. A lot of owners wait until the later rounds to pick a quarterback. If you go deep into the math, then you’ll find out that they may be making the right choice.

Steve Gallo of TheHuddle.com performed an in-depth mathematical analysis to test the Zero QB Theorem. His article is great if you want detailed analysis, but if math gives you a headache, then here are the high points:

• If you erase every point scored by a fantasy football QB, most teams still win 61 percent of their head-to-head matchups. If you’re winning 61 percent of your games, then you’ll go 8-for-13 in the season. If eight wins isn’t enough for you, then think about this: A 61-percent win column is more than the top three quarterbacks have produced for their teams over the past seven years (49.1 percent). When you put it all together, picking an elite QB in the first round may not give your team a winning advantage.
• Value-based drafting (VBD) may not be a great strategy. Instead of looking at the total points that a player scores, VBD looks at the number of points that a player scores compared to his peers in the league. However, if you look at the VBD number and compare that with the total points scored, quarterbacks have less value than any other player with the exception of your kicker. Running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and D/STs (defense/special teams) all outranked QBs in terms of how much they contributed to each win.
• Even if you wait until the later rounds, you may still pick up a very respectable QB. It’s also easier to find a replacement starter for a QB than for a running back, tight end or receiver.

If Gallo is right, then you may want to change the way you draft your QB. Still, it’s worthwhile to look at the other side of the argument.

If You Don’t Draft a Good QB, Then Prepare to Lose

You can still get a decent QB in the later rounds because the NFL is full of them. For the sake of argument, though, look at the number of fantasy points scored by QBs in 2012:

• Seven of the league’s QBs earned 300+ fantasy points.
• Twelve of the league’s QBs earned between 220 and 280 fantasy points.

Mid-level QBs like Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck all scored around 275 fantasy points. Andy Dalton, who came in 12th in the league, had 250 points. Dalton isn’t that far behind Romo, but he’s nearly 100 points behind Brady, Rodgers and Brees. According to these numbers, getting a good QB gives you a big advantage.

On the other hand, if you believe Gallo’s numbers, you see that teams still win without any QB points. When you put your team together, you’re not going to have a zero at QB; you’re going to have someone decent. If a zero at QB can get you to eight wins, then imagine what a decent QB can do when you’ve invested in some other really good players. When you draft your team this year, let the QB wait until the end.

Photo credit: eschipul / Foter / CC BY-SA

About the Author: Carey Goodrich loves to bet on NFL football. He recommends checking out the top sites by looking at rankings given at http://www.onlinesportsbetting.net/.