A lot of what I read about Matt Shoemaker entering this year was about regression. He was 16-4 last year and had an ERA just over 3.00, so it is understandable that projection systems and fans thought that was him performing over his head at age 27.

Now 28-years-old and in his sophomore campaign, I am not thinking regression is what we need to worry about. While it is unlikely that 16 wins and a 3.00 ERA becomes the norm, you did not have to pay for Shoemaker like a 16-win pitcher. You got him later in the draft or cheaper via trade than guys who post those numbers annually. Even if he does regress a bit, you had that built into your investment, so to speak.

I am a bit concerned that Shoemaker is throwing 88 miles per hour and not 90-91 like he did last year. Otherwise, I am confident that he will continue to be a stellar pitcher. When it comes to pitchers, guys who can strike batters out and not walk anyone are the guys you want to invest in each and every year in fantasy. You can pay for guys who always put up great numbers, but the likelihood you get a better return on your investment is not near that of a guy you draft late like Shoemaker. In his two starts this year, his strikeout rate looks a lot like it did last year (24% to last year’s 22.8%) and his walk rate has followed suit (2.0% to last year’s 4.4%). His FIP and xFIP are slightly higher than last year’s season total but still quite comparable given the small sample size, and he has already given you two wins.

If his velocity was the same I would think we are in for a stellar, 4 WAR type campaign. I have some hesitation around his velocity being down, but I think he is the type of pitcher that will still be very successful even with slightly diminished velocity. Home runs are not kind to Shoemaker and that may continue if he does not get his velocity past 90 miles per hour with his fastball more often than not, but on a quality team and with a style of pitching that should consistently keep his team in ballgames, 15+ wins is plausible given he is two-for-two so far.

Another reason the velocity does not bother me too much is that he is not overly dependent on his fastball. As a pitcher with a high quality changeup and two breaking balls, he has other ways to get batters out than simply pumping gas right by them.

With his ERA currently being 4.38, I think now is a pretty good time to go out and acquire Shoemaker from those who think last year may be a mirage without looking at the more in depth numbers. Even if they are looking at those deeper numbers, they may see his velocity and be willing to move him in fear this change is both permanent and damaging. You do not have to pay much for Shoemaker and you still have some great upside all of the standard starting pitcher categories. Go grab him if possible, and be glad that you did.