2013 Fantasy Baseball Peaks and Valleys – Take Risks, See Rewards
Just last week I brought up the topic of taking chances. My team was in need of a fresh take, and I decided to make a couple of moves/non-moves.
I really liked Miguel Montero coming into the 2013 season. It had almost been clockwork to see a .270 batting average, home run totals in the teens, and 80 runs batted in. That equates to must-own for a catcher. Through mid-May, Montero has been a disappointment despite a few homers. The O-fer nights at the plate were growing tiresome. Thankfully, a team dropped Salvador Perez. One of my weaker categories has been average, so I made the jump to Perez.
I also held off on dropping Brett Lawrie. He is more of a fill-in for 1B/3B, but had to get over an early season injury and find his groove. He has not been worth the spot more often than not, but the same could be said for most Toronto Blue Jays. A home run Sunday gets him a few more days before I make another move.
Wandy Rodriguez was my last starting pitcher drafted late in my auction. His weak start against Philadelphia and poor start five days later versus Milwaukee put me on edge. Wandy needed at least a quality start against the Nationals May 5 to keep a spot. Not only did I get one in a loss, but was rewarded with another good outing May 10. Waiting for pitching in drafts can pay off. Pittsburgh is bound to be .500 team, and with the offensive players there, having a proven vet like Rodriguez can mean wins in fantasy.
Peaking
Francisco Liriano, Starting Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates: Call me a sucker, but I always see the light at the end of the tunnel with Liriano. His walks will always be his bugaboo (this word is still relevant, right?), but his strikeouts often outweigh the walks. His first start with Pittsburgh resulted in a win, despite 90 pitches in 5 1/3 innings. Adding Liriano is high risk, high reward territory, but sometimes taking a risk can be fun.
Trevor Rosenthal, Middle Relief, St. Louis Cardinals, and Mark Melancon, Middle Relief, Pittsburgh Pirates: 36 1/3 innings pitched, 43 strikeouts, 30 hits, 7 earned runs. Those are the stats of Rosenthal and Melancon combined. Your league may not use holds but they more than likely use strikeouts and earned runs. The two are used with great confidence by their managers, and perform well under tough circumstances. Both would also be in line for save opportunities if their team’s respective closers fall off or get injured.
Alfonso Soriano, Outfield, Chicago Cubs: The weather warming up, and so is Soriano. Hits in four of six games this week, four runs, three RBI’s and two stolen bases looks great for a 4th or 5th outfielder in one week. Soriano could also be playing for a trade. He did turn down a trade to the eventual world champion Giants in 2012, but with future money on the line, he could use a playoff run.
Yonder Alonso is worth an add if you need run production. His average is fluctuating a lot, but he seems to drive runs in. If you need steals, snag Juan Pierre. If you expect much else from him, then that is on you.
In the Valley
Mitch Moreland, First Base, Texas Rangers: As great as it is to see a player like Moreland stuck in neutral in the Big Show, I refuse to believe his recent offense will stick. Moreland has never topped 51 RBI’s in a season, so even seeing his 31 homers over two seasons means he is driving the ball out of the park with few to no runners on base.
Miguel Montero, Catcher, Arizona Diamondbacks: It pains me to put him here, but there are other catchers who can help now. I plan on keeping a close eye on him throughout the rest of the month, even with my recent addition of Salvador Perez. Catchers like J.P. Arencibia are (still!) available in 30-50% of leagues, and at least producing more consistently.
Phil Hughes, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees: Hughes is a black and white type of pitcher. He will miss your bat, or make it impossible to miss. There has been some bad luck with him. He has book-ended his wins and losses with three no decisions, all quality starts. With the Yankees starting to hit, maybe Hughes could rack of the wins with mediocre starts. The truth is simple with Hughes: He is just as likely to pitch himself to a win as he is to pitch himself into a loss.
It is never fun to see good guys like Jake Westbrook and Joel Hanrahan miss time because of injuries. Westbrook has been hot on the mound, despite the low K numbers. Hanrahan will be lost for much longer. Great to see him resurrect his career in Pittsburgh before earning his position in Boston.
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