The Rubber, Week 5: Rest of Season Top 75 SP Rankings
This article comes out every Thursday. In previous years it was updated rankings each Thursday, but weekly is too frequent for updates to rankings. Monthly seems more like the stick. And so ‘The Rubber’ will be an updated top 75 on the first Thursday of each month.
These are designed to be rankings going forward, predictive rather than descriptive. I would trade pitchers on this list for anyone listed above them if such a trade were offered to me tomorrow. For example, I’m only trading Verlander for Kershaw.
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1. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned
2. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned
3. Adam Wainwright | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned
4. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned
5. Stephen Strasburg | Washington Nationals | 100% owned
6. Yu Darvish | Texas Rangers | 100% owned
On Tuesday night I started doing some research for these rankings, and the data I had was current through Monday games. With that data set, I determined where each starter with 17+IP ranked in a few statistics that I find particularly important: K%-BB%, GB%, SIERA, ISO allowed, and swinging strike rate.
I then totaled up each guy’s ranking in each stat just to get a general idea of what kind of skill everyone has displayed so far this year. Topping the list was Darvish. As of Monday, he ranked 1st in SIERA, ISO allowed, and SwStr%, 2nd in GB%, and 7th in K%-BB%. All told his ‘total’ was 12. The next closest guy was Adam Wainwright with a total of 101! Darvish was the only guy who was even in single digits and he totaled a mere 12.
Darvish got roughed up a bit on Tuesday night, so the numbers would probably shake out a little differently now. But the point is that he’s reached the potential that so many thought he had. I still have him just outside my top five because even though his control is better than it was last year, his walk rate still a little higher than league average at 8.6%.
7. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned
8. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned
9. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned
10. Chris Sale | Chicago White Sox | 100% owned
11. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned
12. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned
13. James Shields | Kansas City Royals | 100% owned
14. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned
15. Anibal Sanchez | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned
16. Jeff Samardzija | Chicago Cubs | 100% owned
17. Matt Harvey | New York Mets | 100% owned
I’m not sure if people think 17 is too low or too high for Harvey. It could be both. On one hand, Harvey is 7th in WAR and 12th in xFIP. But on the other hand, he still hasn’t pitched 100 major league innings, and he has a career BABIP of .242 and strand rate of 82.8%.
In all honesty, I expect Harvey to better than 17th at the end of the year by most any measure such as ESPN’s player rater or even just by xFIP or WAR. But my nature is to be cautious, to see it before I believe it. As a result, I miss out on some guys. But I believe this disposition also helps me avoid overpaying for a commodity.
18. Jordan Zimmermann | Washington Nationals | 100% owned
19. R.A. Dickey | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned
20. Doug Fister | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned
21. Gio Gonzalez | Washington Nationals | 100% owned
22. Johnny Cueto | Cincinnati Reds | 100% owned
23. Mat Latos | Cincinnati Reds | 100% owned
24. Matt Moore | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned
25. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned
In our preseason draft kit, I had this to say about Matt Cain:
His low BABIP and ability to limit home runs are the reasons he has been able to consistently outperform his peripherals. But if those skills ever go away or if Cain just has some bad luck, he’ll blow up in a big way.
So far this season, one of those skills has not been present and Cain’s ERA has blown up. The BABIP is still low, but Cain has been tagged for nine home runs, which is as many as he allowed in all of 2011. Admittedly, there has to be some level of bad luck in his 19.1% HR/FB (career 7.1%) in that no one expects that rate to continue. However, some of it appears to be Cain’s fault. His Zone% is up, his first pitch strike percentage is way up, he’s inducing fewer swings at pitches outside of the zone, hitters are making more contact on his pitches in the zone, and his groundball rate is down. All of those factors intuitively seem like they would lead to an increase in homers.
And there are other numbers that don’t look quite right. His velocity is down a bit as is his swinging strike rate. Maybe it’s just a bad start for Cain. But I was somewhat concerned about him coming into the season, and he’s done nothing to alleviate my concerns.
26. Jake Peavy | Chicago White Sox | 100% owned
27. A.J. Burnett | Pittsburgh Pirates | 100% owned
28. Hiroki Kuroda | New York Yankees | 100% owned
29. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned
30. Zack Greinke | Los Angeles Dodgers | 96.8% owned
31. Kris Medlen | Atlanta Braves | 99.6% owned
32. Mike Minor | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned
33. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned
34. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 97.1% owned
35. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | 100% owned
36. Jon Niese | New York Mets | 79% owned
37. Alex Cobb | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned
38. Hyun-Jin Ryu | Los Angeles Dodgers | 92.3% owned
It’s hard to properly evaluate someone based on less than 40 major league innings and zero familiarity with the pitcher from the minors to rely on. But Ryu has been really impressive in his first six starts. You have to start with the strikeout ability. He has struck out 30.3% of the batter he has faced, which is good for 8th best in the league. And he has backed it up with a healthy 10.2% SwStr%. He’s doing it primarily with an average fastball (90-92 mph), a plus slider, and a decent change.
Aside from the limited sample, the only possible concern that shows up in the numbers is that he hasn’t induced a ton of ground balls. But he has a decent home park in which to leave some balls in the air. With that being the main concern, I wanted to put him a several slots higher. But the 40 inning sample still leaves me with some reservation.
39. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned
40. Wade Miley | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned
41. Josh Johnson | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.5% owned
42. Hisashi Iwakuma | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned
43. Ryan Dempster | Boston Red Sox | 99.5% owned
44. Alexi Ogando | Texas Rangers | 94.2% owned
45. Marco Estrada | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.8% owned
46. Lance Lynn | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned
47. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned
48. Shelby Miller | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned
49. Paul Maholm | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned
50. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 91.6% owned
51. Jeremy Hellickson | Tampa Bay Rays | 92.8% owned
52. Edwin Jackson | Chicago Cubs | 32.7% owned
53. Carlos Villanueva | Chicago Cubs | 47.5% owned
54. Clay Buchholz | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned
Buchholz was great again on Wednesday night bringing his ERA on the season to 1.01. But as you can tell from this ranking, I’m not buying it.
Let’s start with the fact that all the success Buchholz has had in the past was almost purely luck driven. Here are a few numbers from his last three seasons:
Luck |
Skill |
|||||
ERA |
BABIP |
LOB% |
HR/FB |
K% |
BB% |
|
2010 |
2.33 |
.261 |
79% |
5.6% |
16.9% |
9.4% |
2011 |
3.48 |
.264 |
79% |
10.1% |
17% |
8.8% |
2012 |
4.39 |
.283 |
69.7% |
13% |
16.1% |
8% |
It’s obvious that Buchholz’s ERA hasn’t been changing because of Buchholz’s (shitty) skill set. It changes according to the amount of luck he gets. How luck has been this year? Here you go:
BABIP |
LOB% |
HR/FB |
|
2013 |
.264 |
90.2% |
3.7% |
Now, some of you may point out that while Buchholz’s walk rate remains below average, his strikeout rate has actually been well above average so far this year. True, his 27.8% K% is substantially better. But the problem is that his swinging strike rate is actually a lower so far this season than it has been in any other year. His velocity is lower than it has ever been. He’s inducing fewer swings at pitches outside of the zone. All the things that might back up an increase in strikeout rate actually indicate that Buchholz should be striking out fewer batters, not more.
The sky is going to fall. Don’t willingly stand under it. Buchholz is as good as sell-high candidates get.
55. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned
56. Derek Holland | Texas Rangers | 98.4% owned
57. Ryan Vogelsong | San Francisco Giants | 42.9% owned
58. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 95.6% owned
59. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 67% owned
60. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles angels | 93% owned
61. Dan Haren | Washington Nationals | 44.9% owned
62. Josh Beckett | Los Angeles Dodgers | 38.2% owned
63. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 94.3% owned
64. Trevor Cahill | Arizona Diamondbacks | 67.3% owned
65. Jason Hammel | Baltimore Orioles | 19.3% owned
66. Felix Doubront | Boston Red Sox | 15.7% owned
67. Tommy Milone | Oakland Athletics | 82.8% owned
68. Dillon Gee | New York Mets | 1.5% owned
If you’ve read anything I’ve written this season, you’ve probably seen me declare my love for Dillon Gee. While discouraged by the early season results, I’m not giving up just yet. If you want to know why I like him, you can find links to my love letters to him here.
69. Brandon McCarthy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 18.5% owned
70. C.J. Wilson | Los Angeles Angels | 96.3% owned
71. Wandy Rodriguez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50% owned
72. Ross Detwiler | Washington Nationals | 63.7% owned
73. Tony Cingrani | Cincinnati Reds | 98.5% owned
74. Patrick Corbin | Arizona Diamondbacks | 81% owned
75. Bartolo Colon | Oakland Athletics | 17% owned
3 Comments
Nice analysis, although I think, regardless of whether you think Bucholtz stuff is “shitty”, I wouldnt disregard what hes doing right now and at least, from what hes done through the first month, and spring training, you should at least get him ranked in the top 40. His pitches are moving all over the plate and I cant see him really regressing that greatly over the next few months, obviously his era wont be sub 1 but I think high 2s is possible. I think the one thing that goes into his stats the past 3 years are injuries, hes had plenty trouble with his back and what not. We shall see but your analysis and rankings are good nonetheless.
One question, you got Garcia ranked pretty high on this list. Should I drop Morrow, Hudson, or K. Jansen for him, my budget is $100, how much should I bid to land him.
Morrow has been awful. And I’ve never been a fan of his. I’d drop him. And if Garcia has been out there awhile it shouldn’t take more than a buck or two. Bt if he was just dropped I might go 5-6.