Anyone that has been paying attention to the two series on ADP (including Brett Talley’s series) already noticed the discrepancies between the two. His are based on what we would call projections. Some projections are more accurate than others, but all of them would agree that projections amount to speculation.

TRI isn’t speculation. TRI is based on past performance and not future projections. As someone once said, past is prologue. It is the one certainty we have and it is what I choose to go by in times like this. Like every other position, third base is going through some growing pains. The absence of Alex Rodriguez is the obvious elephant in the room, but he was reduced to an also ran this past season. Seeing Miguel Cabrera move to first base is the biggest move.

TRI Bargains

Aramis Ramirez

One of the problems with most projection systems is that they rely too heavily on the past season. In four out of the past five seasons, he has had wRC+ totals north of 130 (including last season). He lost about 60 games due to injury. That is one reason to keep Ramirez out of the top five, but given the relative lack of depth he should not be going 12th. The good news is that his walk rate was the second highest of his career. The bad news is that he has missed considerable time due to injury in three out of the past five years.

Pablo Sandoval

In a standard 12 team player league, Sandoval is going as the first backup. He has had only one season with a wRC+ below 100. Again, he might not be top five material, but he is definitely one of the best ten third basemen in the game. Durability might be a concern, but it shouldn’t drive him to the bench.

TRI Players to Avoid

Martin Prado

Prado does offer some versatility that comes in handy, but when you are hunting around the top 100 is not the time to add depth. As we saw with the last two players, there is tremendously more value in what they could bring to the table. Yes, Prado is eligible at multiple positions, but you should not spend a pick this early on a player just because he is versatile.

Manny Machado

Machado is an example of what we might call the Brooks Robinson effect. Robinson is most definitely a Hall of Fame player and he was a perfectly decent hitter, but a great hitter he was not. What he was was a great fielder. Machado is the same. He might be a transcendent fielder like Robinson, but the numbers show him to be an average performer offensively. I’d love to have Machado on my big league team. His defense was worth three wins above the average defensive third baseman. I’ll pass when it comes to my fantasy team though.

TRI Waiver Claims

Trevor Plouffe (345.55 ADP)

After parts of three full seasons in the big leagues, Plouffe has established himself as an average performer. He has averaged a 97 wRC+ and an OPS north of 700. In the past two seasons, he has averaged 19 home runs and just over 50 RBIs. Is it enough to make him a fantasy regular? I sure hope not, but as a quality backup you can do a lot worse. It isn’t about being better than anyone ranked 13-20, but you could use those picks on other positions and settle for Plouffe.

Alberto Callaspo (444.53 ADP)

Let’s go back five years and compare two players. The totals will be crude, but I’m only trying to make a point here.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .wRC+. . . . .AVG. . . . .HR. . . . .SB. . . . . .OPS

Player A. . . . . .99.6. . . . . .273. . . . . .47. . . . ..19. . . . . .724

Player B. . . . .109.2. . . . . .291. . . . . ..63. . . . ..30. . . . ..773

There can be no doubt that Player B is the superior performer, but how much better is he than Player A? Neither of them produces a ton of power or a ton of speed. So, you are relying almost primarily on their batting average. As you might have suspected, Martin Prado is player B while Callaspo is player A. Both are eligible at third and second in most leagues, so why not wait until the waiver wire and get your versatile bench guy.