Total Run Index: Closers
I hate closers. Okay, maybe that is a bit extreme. It’s not like I send hate mail to Craig Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera. I hate the idea of closers. Of course, my hatred for closers probably shouldn’t have much to do with your draft strategy as it pertains to closers. So, let me outline why I hate closers and what that has to do with you.
The save was invented in the 1960s by a journalist (Jerome Holtzman) who wanted to give credit to relievers that finish a team’s win under pressure situation. 1969 was the first season where saves were officially used. Under the current rules, a pitcher can earn a save if the tying run is in the hole in the final inning (or they have a three run lead).
I’m sure Mr. Holtzman meant well, but the statistic has begun to wag the dog. Players that save a lot of games get paid a lot of money. When they get paid a lot of money they are automatically used to save games. You see how we are moving in circles here? Unfortunately, those that save games are not necessarily the best reliever on their team. So, we see that saves have made teams a slave and they can make you a slave as well.
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The biggest concern for you has to be the fickle nature of the position. Consider the following: let’s make a list of all the closers that have been closing for the past five years. Even if we include Mariano Rivera we are talking about three guys (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan). If we remove those that have missed injury time we are down to Papelbon.
The implications for you are obvious. Outside of five to six guys, there just aren’t many closers you can count on. Between five and ten closers will lose their jobs every year. You can often find their replacement on the waiver wire. So, outside of those five or six guys I wouldn’t sweat closers that much. Of course, the TRI scores will reflect that.
Team |
2012 |
3YR |
5YR |
||
John Axford | Brewers |
-1.9 |
8.3 |
—– |
He lost the job last year because of control problems. Beware |
Grant Balfour | Athletics |
9.9 |
7.8 |
9.7 |
Performed well, but they used a committee approach. |
Rafael Betancourt | Rockies |
11.9 |
11.3 |
9.5 |
He has been solid for two years in a row. |
Jonathan Broxton | Reds |
7.7 |
2.2 |
8.5 |
Injury problems appear to be behind him. |
Steve Cishek | Marlins |
6.3 |
3.3 |
—- |
Someone has to close games in Miami. |
Frank Francisco | Mets |
-2.0 |
2.6 |
6.1 |
He is the worst option except for all the others. |
Joel Hanrahan | Red Sox |
1.3 |
8.1 |
7.7 |
Last year was a struggle, I smell a coup d’ etat by Andrew Bailey. |
Greg Holland | Royals |
17.0 |
8.9 |
—- |
A very underrated reliever could be a nice sleeper. |
Jim Johnson | Orioles |
9.9 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
Came out of nowhere and could return as quickly as he came |
Craig Kimbrel | Braves |
23.1 |
15.7 |
—- |
He’s the Mariano Rivera for this generation. |
Brandon League | Dodgers |
6.5 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
Kenley Jansen should be the guy, but…….. |
Ryan Madson | Angels |
-3.0 |
4.9 |
7.7 |
Missed out on big bucks, but should be reliable if healthy. |
Carlos Marmol | Cubs |
0.7 |
7.6 |
8.8 |
Anyone remember when he was unhittable? |
Jason Motte | Cardinals |
6.7 |
5.5 |
3.2 |
He’s the best of a good bunch of relievers |
Joe Nathan | Rangers |
13.3 |
10.5 |
14.4 |
One of the better comeback stories at the position. |
Jonathan Papelbon | Phillies |
9.9 |
11.8 |
16.4 |
One of the few five year guys mentioned above. |
Chris Perez | Indians |
5.4 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
Last year was actually his best year as a reliever |
Glen Perkins | Twins |
8.6 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
He’s the poor man’s Greg Holland. |
J.J. Putz | Dbacks |
9.6 |
9.4 |
6.1 |
Has come back with a couple of strong seasons after struggling. |
Addison Reed | White Sox |
3.8 |
—- |
—- |
One of many live arms in Chicago. Saves will be split. |
Mariano Rivera | Yankees |
0.0 |
9.3 |
14.6 |
An ACL tear was no way for him to go out. |
Fernando Rodney | Rays |
20.5 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
A dominant season came out of nowhere. That makes me nervous. |
Sergio Romo | Giants |
7.6 |
9.6 |
7.4 |
He handled the duties ably last year and will get another chance. |
Sergio Santos | Blue Jays |
-4.3 |
4.1 |
—- |
Injuries cut short his season, but still is the best option in Toronto. |
Rafael Soriano | Nationals |
12.5 |
7.9 |
8.0 |
Is an upgrade over Clippard and Storen. |
Huston Street | Padres |
5.9 |
4.7 |
6.9 |
Has been surprisingly reliable when healthy. |
Jose Valverde | Free Agent |
5.1 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
He’s a second tier closer at this point but some teams need that. |
Jose Veras | Astros |
3.2 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
A pitcher with control problems on a team with few opportunities. |
Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners |
12.2 |
—- |
—- |
He came out of nowhere and now the job is his. |
Brian Wilson | Free Agent |
-3.3 |
5.0 |
6.6 |
You’d think he could get a job somewhere. |
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