Pitching is rather famously hard to predict. Young pitchers, without the benefit of a MLB track-record, are even more so. Let’s look anyway. I like to live dangerously.

Casey Kelly (SD)

A pitcher with an average fastball and only eight starts above Double-A may seem an odd choice to start this list but all totaled Casey Kelly is the best fantasy pitching prospect in baseball this season. That doesn’t mean you should dump Dylan Bundy (we’ll get to him) in a keeper league but if you’re concerned about the 2013 season I’ll take Casey Kelly’s 2013 fantasy value against any other rookie pitcher. Elbow inflammation delayed the start of Kelly’s 2012 but he showed the best stuff and strikeout rates of his career upon returning. Kelly has excellent command, a strong three pitch mix, the ability to keep the ball on the ground and most importantly for fantasy purposes he’s a San Diego Padre. Kelly has a good shot at making the Opening Day rotation in San Diego and will spend half his days in the game’s best pitcher’s park. Kelly gets knocked a bit for having mediocre upside but he’s extremely polished and boasts elite athleticism. Kelly’s stuff has improved over the past couple of years and there’s no reason not to think that Kelly doesn’t have a little more in the tank. He’s healthy, knows how to pitch, has a path to the big leagues and gets the benefit of PETCO Park. Even if San Diego opts for the conservative approach and starts Kelly at Triple-A, he’ll see big league action at some point. Kelly will be worth owning in any format and a tremendous value in NL-only leagues.

Trevor Rosenthal (STL)

Dat fastball.

Rosenthal went from obscurity to national prominence as the Cardinals’ secret bullpen weapon. Rosenthal has an absolutely electric arm; as a reliever he was consistently 97-100 MPH and over matched big league hitters. Rosenthal also features a cutter (or hard slider depending on your semantic preference) and a power curve. While starting, Rosenthal’s fastball will sit 92-95 MPH but he, obviously, has more in the tank when needed. The recent, unfortunate, news about Chris Carpenter’s health has opened up a spot in the Cardinals’ rotation but it’s unclear if Rosenthal will get first crack at it or fellow prospect Shelby Miller or Joe Kelly who filled in admirably in 2012. Rosenthal may have been so good in relief that it makes it harder to move him back to the rotation. The Cardinals have said the right things about developing Rosenthal as a starter long-term but, despite his success, he isn’t guaranteed a rotation spot just yet. Really the uncertainty over his role is the only downside to Rosenthal’s fantasy value. Still, Rosenthal is all but certain to pitch in the big leagues this season. It’s likely that he’ll start in the bullpen then find his way into the rotation at some point, raking up strikeouts by the barrel all along the way.

Shelby Miller (STL)

Speaking of Shelby Miller, let’s speak of Shelby Miller. The former first-round pick is from a small Texas town close to the small Texas town I live in. Seeing Miller in person pitch in high school left me as excited as those ladies who used Herbal Essence shampoo in the 90s. A well-known prospect, Miller’s fastball/curve combo are each, at least, plus. Miller was bitten by the long ball in Triple-A (24 HRs in 136.2 IP) but his strikeout and walk numbers were elite. Miller posted a 16:5 K:BB ratio and reports on his change-up were unanimous in approval. It’s only a matter of time until Miller is a really good major league pitcher. The questions surrounding playing time with Rosenthal, obviously, are the same for Miller but, like Rosenthal, he’s good enough too force his way into the rotation this season.

Dylan Bundy (BAL)

Shelby Miller is the best right-handed high school pitching prospect I’ve seen in person as an amateur  Dylan Bundy is the best right-handed high school pitching prospect I’ve covered. As well as the best that most scouts have seen. This post is as close as I’ll probably ever come to saying be careful with Bundy. But, be careful with Bundy. He’s got stuff, command, production, poise; Bundy is everything you could possibly want in a pitching prospect. However he’s still really young. He’s only thrown 18.1 innings above A-ball. Bundy will be great but only a handful of pitchers have ever been great at this age. Doc Gooden, Don Drysdale and Bob Feller are the only pitchers who’ve had elite seasons at age-20. Bundy won’t be able to buy a drink until November. I’m not forecasting doom and gloom for Bundy; he could be a decent pitcher right now. However, patience is still needed.

Tyler Skaggs (ARI)

It’s easy to pigeonhole guys. If you see a player who struck out over 11 batters per nine innings in A and Double-A ball as a teenager and you expect him to be a flamethrower. That’s a fair assumption. Hard throwers tend to get more strikeouts. Tyler Skaggs is an exception to the rule. His fastball sits 88-92 MPH. Skaggs has a solid change-up but his main weapon is a terrific curve ball. Skaggs has the stuff to get big league hitters out, but it’s not front-of-the-rotation stuff. While it has occurred in a small sample size, it is not a coincidence that Skaggs’ strikeout rates have fallen precipitously at higher levels. I’ve been called a Skaggs homer when I said he could be a quality No. 3 starter back when he was a totally unheralded prospect. I’ve been called a Skaggs hater when people rank him as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in baseball. Skaggs hasn’t changed that much; only public perception of him. You can probably find someone who overrates him in your league. A No. 3 starter with a below-average fastball who pitches in a bandbox is not someone to invest in strongly.