Game Breakdowns:

This article is a collaboration between Joshua Lewis and Joshua Kay , the NBA Daily Fantasy experts for the Fantasy Fix.

Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards – Start Time 7:00 PM

Notable stats:

• Atlanta ranks 27th in rebounding rate ( 47.9 )
• Atlanta ranks 3rd in assist percentage ( 64.4 )
• Washington ranks 4th in assist percentage ( 64.3 )

SPIN ( ATL ):  The Hawks are usually unattractive fantasy options, and a road matchup with a Wizards team that currently ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency is certainly not a matchup that is going to turn any heads.  Paul Millsap ( $9,400 ) is completely out of play due to his recent jump in price.  Jeff Teague ( $7,000 ) has a high ceiling, but he’s inconsistent, and the Wizards rank 3rd against opposing point guards.  He’s a GPP only play, and I would severely limit my exposure as it seems unlikely he has a big game in this matchup.   DeMarre Carroll ( $5,100 ) seems to consistently settle between 20-30 fantasy points and makes for a solid cash game target.  He’s not a preferred target for GPPs due to his lack of upside.  Other Hawks can safely be ignored.

SPIN ( WAS ): John Wall ( $9,800 )  is a strong play tomorrow at home.  He has significant home/road splits, and is currently averaging just over 50 fantasy points per game at home.  Atlanta defends point guards well, but Wall is a legitimate stud and can be targeted in both cash games and GPPs assuming you’re not making significant sacrifices to fit him in.  Bradley Beal ( $6,000 ) played 34 minutes last game, and should enter the starting lineup in the very near future.  He’s an excellent play at this low price.  Atlanta is ranked 28th against opposing shooting guards.

Nene Hilario is almost certain to miss tonight’s game.  Kris Humphries ( $4,800 ) will likely step into the starting lineup, and makes for a strong play tonight.  Paying $4,800 for Humphries might feel a bit dirty, but given his solid production in limited minute, and the plus matchup with an Atlanta team that is allergic to rebounding, he should easily pay off his price tag.  Marcin Gortat ( $6,200 ) gets a bump as well, and is a very attractive play at his price.  Both Kevin Seraphin ( $3,000 ) and Drew Gooden ( $3,000 ) are minimum priced and should be the two bigs to play off the bench.  Washington typically plays a 4 man rotation with regard to their power forwards and centers, and both make for good GPP plays as both are able to put up a solid fantasy score in limited court time.

Summary:

All Games:  John Wall – PG, Bradley Beal – SG, Kris Humphries – PF ( if he starts ), Marcin Gortat – C, DeMarre Carroll – SF

GPP Only:  Jeff Teague – PG, Kevin Seraphin – PF, Drew Gooden – PF (if he starts he can be used in cash too)

Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat – Start Time 7:30 PM

Notable stats:

• Miami is 2nd in the NBA in 3-point FG% , Golden State is 6th
• Golden State allows the 4th fewest 3-point FG made per 100 possessions
• Golden State allows the 2nd lowest jump shot FG% per 100 possessions

SPIN (MIA): Dwayne Wade has been ruled out and Point Guard Norris Cole ( $4,000 ) is “on track to return” from a dislocated finger tonight. If he goes, he will start at the point, with Mario Chalmers ( $6,400 ) drawing the start at the two. Chalmers is the only guy I am interested in for cash games, as he’ll play big minutes regardless. A finger injury for Norris Cole makes things interesting, because even if he plays big minutes, you can’t help but wonder how often he’ll have the ball in his hand — because dribbling/shooting may still be a bit painful. Cole is fine for GPPs, but i’d use DJ Augustin ( $3,900 ) — who we touched on earlier — over Cole 101 times out of 100, but you can use both in the same lineup. I’m fading Chris Bosh ( $8,500 ) tonight due to the Andrew Bogut factor. The Warriors are the sixth best in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing centers.

SPIN ( GS): Klay Thompson ( $7,100 ) is the #1 shooting guard tonight and it’s really not all that close — although Bradley Beal and Jimmy Butler might push him for that. Thompson is as close to an auto-play as there is for 7,100, especially if Shannon Brown starts (who Thompson will absolutely destroy). The only concern here is the blowout factor — which is very real by the way. That doesn’t scare me off Thompson in cash games, particularly because as a three-point shooter he always has the chance to hit “value” in the first half alone. In GPPs, a contrarian blowout fade in some spots makes sense, though. Stephen Curry ( $9,500 ) will likely be very good but again, the blowout factor is a very real issue here. I’d stay away from Curry in cash, especially since Klay has such a significantly better matchup. I’m staying away from the forwards in this game for the most part since Luol Deng, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green and Shawne Williams are all very solid defenders that match up, size wise, very well with each other, but Small Forward is a weak position, so I don’t mind Draymond.

Summary:

All Games: Klay Thompson – SG, Mario Chalmers – PG, Draymond Green – SF

GPP Only: Norris Cole – PG, Stephen Curry – PG, Andrew Bogut – C, Marreese Speights – PF

Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks – Start Time 8:00 PM

Notable stats:

• Detroit ranks 23rd in pace ( 93.47 )
• Detroit ranks 28th in offensive efficiency ( 97.4 )
• Detroit ranks 29th in assist percentage ( 51.8 )
• Milwaukee ranks 8th in defensive efficiency ( 100.7 )

SPIN ( DET ):  Detroit is an inefficient team that assists on a very low percentage of their field goals.  Facing a Bucks team that is tough defensively, it’s hard to see the upside in rostering many Pistsons tonight.  Brandon Jennings has been ruled out, which makes DJ Augustin ( $3,900 ) an across the board automatic play tonight.  He has produced high fantasy scores in both a bench role and as a starter, and is simply too cheap fade.  Josh Smith ( $6,500 ) makes for an interesting GPP play given his reduced price.  He sees a significant boost when Andre Drummond ( $7,100 ) gets into foul trouble.  The typical result is Greg Monroe ( $7,000 ) moving to center, and Smith moving to power forward, a position he is much better suited for.  However, the Bucks team seems unlikely to get Drummond into foul trouble.  It’s also important to note that with Augustin on the court, Monroe gets a bump in usage while Smith sees a drop.  The exact opposite is true with Jennings on the court.  Monroe is also in play as a GPP target.

SPIN ( MIL ):  The Bucks are no fun to use.  They’re all subject to the rotational whims of head coach Jason Kidd.  He has them playing a solid defensive game, but, unfortunately, that doesn’t help us in daily fantasy.  Brandon Knight ( $7,100 ) is the only consistent Buck, and he can be targeted in both cash games and GPPs.  Larry Sanders ( $3,900 ) is approaching minimum salary, and it is absolutely justified.  He is supposedly healthy, but can’t seem to stay on the court long enough to be relevant.  However, the Pistons are dead last against opposing centers.  If he’s able to get off to a quick start, Jason Kidd may reward with him a few extra minutes.  He’s likely not going to be a good play, but there’s a chance he could do really well when absolutely nobody is on him.  The rest of the Bucks are a mess and can safely be avoided.

Summary:

All Games:  DJ Augustin – PG, Brandon Knight – PG

GPP Only: Josh Smith – SF, Greg Monroe – PF, Larry Sanders – C

Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans – Start Time 8:00 PM

Notable stats:

• Referee Eric Lewis has the 11th highest ROAD team foul percentage, and his total points per game refereed is 204.2
• Referee Kevin Scott has the 8th highest ROAD team foul percentage and his total points per game is 203.8
• Referee Danny Crawford has a total points per game of 207
• Demarcus Cousins has a 36.9%  usage rate and a 18.9 defensive rebound rate with Rudy Gay ( who is OUT ) off the court.
• The Kings and Pelicans allow the 3rd and 4th highest opp FG% on Dunks.

SPIN (SAC): We laid out all of the reasons for potentially fading Demarcus Cousins ( $10,400 ), with basically all of them involving potential foul trouble. Is it enough to ignore the incredible upside in such a matchup with Gay out? Additionally, Omer Asik the opposing center, is questionable but he WAS a partial participant in practice Monday. If Asik plays I’d really consider fading Cousins in cash games if you can’t optimize your lineup perfectly with him in (maybe use Norris Cole and DJ Augustin?). The issue is if you need to use multiple value plays that are “praying that he reaches value” types, a 45 point or lower performance from Cousins will absolutely destroy your lineup.  The reason getting Cousins right tonight is so incredibly important is that if you use him you won’t be able to use all four, or probably even three of “Beal / Klay Thompson / Pau Gasol / Jimmy Butler”, all of whom are fabulous plays, so Cousins absolutely can’t dud. Before you slot him into your lineup, you have to assess your personal risk tolerance. I’m likely fading him in cash ( unless some great value play like Nikola Mirotic emerges — Noah is questionable) and praying he gets into foul touble.

Some sites will be pumping Omri Casspi ( $3,500 ) if he starts, as a good potentially value play so that you can fit Cousins into your lineup. This once again, is likely a mistake. The last three games Derrick Williams ( $3,300 ) has received 5 minutes, 22 minutes and 30 minutes respectively — ranging from least recent to most recent. Casspi’s minutes have gone in the other direction at 28 minutes, 17 minutes, 12 minutes. So even if he starts Casspi is absolutely not guaranteed 30+ minutes, and to make matters worse for Casspi, the Pelicans are #1 in the NBA in lowest opp FG% allowed on jump shots — which is all Casspi takes. Don’t fall for this trap. Casspi is one of those “pray he reaches value” guys.

Starting Point Guard Darren Collison ( $7,000 ) is questionable with a quad ailment, and backup point guard Ramon Sessions ( $3,000 ) has been upgraded to “probable” with a knee ailment. Both of these guys (regardless of who starts ) will draw bulldog defender Jrue Holiday. Collison is priced too highly to be interesting if he starts, and Sessions has been horrendous in his relief role of late. If Sessions starts, I still kind of hate using him in order to force Cousins in.

If it sounds like I’m terrified of using the Kings, its because I am. If Asik plays for New Orleans, this game is likely going to turn into an absolute blowout.

SPIN (NO): The same argument that we used for Cousins is applicable to Anthony Davis ( $11,500 ), minus the foul trouble. You will see a lot of stars and scrubs strategy tonight, and that just doesn’t seem like the best route. Pau Gasol at 7,300 against Denver can easily put up 85% of what Davis can produce at almost 40% less cost. Jrue Holiday ( $7,500 ) and Ryan Anderson ( $6,100 ) are always GPP plays — with the latter being my favorite tonight. If Omer Asik ( $4,300 ) returns, he’s probably the best play at center price wise. Not to mention, if Asik does play, this means that the first rotation for the Pelicans will likely be Ryan Anderson in for the terrible Darius Miller at the 3….. This is why I’m terrified to use Kings:

PG- Jrue Holiday, SG- Tyreke Evans, SF – Ryan Anderson – PF – Anthony Davis and C – Omer Asik could easily be the most used lineup for the Pelicans tonight. This lineup is pretty damn good against any team, let alone a team like the Kings with a “Stars/Scrubs” roster that will be minus a star tonight.

The sneakiest value play without question is Austin Rivers ( $3,600 ) at point guard (again all of this mostly hinges on Asik playing). With a potential big time blowout looming, Rivers will see a ton of run ( he might even see extra run regardless if they decide to play Rivers at SG some since Eric Gordon is out). Both Sessions and Collison are woeful defensively.

Summary: 

All Games: Omer Asik – C (if he starts), Demarcus Cousins – C (recommended in cash only if amazing value plays emerge), Anthony Davis – PF (same criteria as Cousins)

GPP Only: Jrue Holiday – PG, Austin Rivers – PG, Ramon Sessions – PG (only if Collison is out), Derrick Williams – SF, Ryan Anderson – PF

Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets – Start Time 9:00 PM

Notable stats

• Denver ranks 4th in pace ( 98.64 )
• Denver ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency ( 105.1 )
• Chicago ranks 9th in assist percentage ( 60.4 )

SPIN ( CHI ):  Both Pau Gasol ( $7,200 ) and Derrick Rose ( $6,500 ) are probable, so expect both to be in the starting lineup.  Denver is extremely weak against power fowards.  The matchup combined with Gasol’s consistency, high floor, and high ceiling make him one of the top plays of the day.  He should absolutely dominate.  Rose only played 25 minutes in a close game last night.  He’ll likely be limited again, and is off limits because of this.  Jimmy Butler ( $7,300 ) continues to be underpriced and should be in all lineups tonight.  He gets it done every night, and will benefit greatly from Denver’s fast pace of play.  Nikola Mirotic ( $4,300 ) played 28 minutes last night, and he should see the same run tonight.  While he didn’t have a great game from a fantasy perspective, the upside is there.  Joakim Noah suffered an eye injury last night, but it doesn’t sound serious and he should play tonight.  If he is declared out, lock and load Mirotic in all lineups.

SPIN ( DEN ):  While Denver is a fun team to target with opposing players, trying to take Denver players themselves feels like torture.  Ty Lawson ( $8,700 ) should have a nice game tonight, but he’s very expensive.  Trey Burke lit the bulls up last night, so Lawson could be in for a big night as well.  Due to price, he’s a GPP only option.  Wilson Chandler ( $5,900 ) has been playing well and may be worth a look in the hopes that he doesn’t draw Butler much defensively, but he’s not a recommended play.  Javale McGee has been ruled out, which should solidify the role of Timofey Mozgov ( $5,600 ).  The Bulls are ranked 29th v Centers.  Mozgov is still an inconsistent option that should be avoided in cash games, but he’s a fine GPP play.

Summary:

All Games:  Jimmy Butler – SG, Pau Gasol – PF

GPP Only:  Nikola Mirotic – PF, Ty Lawson – PG, Timofey Mozgov – C, Wilson Chandler – SF