2013 Fantasy Football, Draft Day Dilemmas At Each Position
Entering into our fourth and final Pre Season week of the 2013 NFL Football season, teams are beginning to decide their starters, their back ups, who to keep and who to cut. As we wind down to the end of August this week many of your Fantasy Football drafts will happen over the next 10 days before the regular season begins on September 5th.
As the NFL teams finalize their 53 man rosters it’s important for you to do the same going into draft day and beyond. Battling for a position is just as important in real life as it is for you and your fantasy team. A player’s statistical history isn’t the end all be all of the player’s value; it’s just a fraction of what it takes to be a successful fantasy player. Knowing the positions, the value and being patient can go along way in this game.
So do you take Drew Brees (NO) in the first round? Or do you wait on RGIII in the 4th? Do you take TY Hilton (IND) in the 7th or do you take Andre Dobson (NE) in the 10th? Knowing when to pull the trigger on this player or that one can be the deciding factor in you winning your championship and being at the bottom of the barrel.
Quarterbacks:
Cam Newton (CAR) vs. Robert Griffin III (WSH): The read option is here, and its here to stay. There is absolutely no question to that, but for how long? Cam Newton broke out onto the scene as the first of his kind – well really it was Michael Vick to pave the way years ago, but you know what I mean – with 706 yards rushing as a QB and 14 rushing TDs. Which sits atop the record books. Newton followed that up with a 741 yards and 8 rushing TD performance in 2012, the second time in 15 years a QB had two consecutive seasons of at least 6 rushing TDs (Tim Tebow (NE) was the other). As a rookie in 2012 Robert Griffin III debuted with a season opener torching the Saints for nearly 400 combined yards and 2 touchdowns. Griffin continued to light it up on the field blazing to 3200 yards passing, 815 yards rushing and 27 total TDs. As the year wore down so did Griffin who took shot after shot that ended up costing him the stability in his knee with a torn LCL and damage to his ACL. It isn’t easy to come back from these types of injuries especially for a player of Griffin’s ilk but if Adrian Peterson (MIN) has taught us anything, Griffin is going to be okay. So the question persists, can the Read Option continue to dominate? Yes. Newton has been consistent despite a lack luster receiving core and running game behind him and nothing indicates that RGIII and others won’t be able to do the same. Newton is bigger, stronger and has shown consistent in his short years. Although RGIII should have a magnificent season, his reconstructed knee holds enough questions for me to select Newton in this battle for starting QB.
Running Backs:
Eddie Lacy (GB) vs. David Wilson (NYG): The value at HB is a pretty significant one. Unlike the QB, star studded Fantasy Running Backs are at times hard to find, so choosing the right one is so important. Eddie Lacy is a rookie coming from the back-to-back NCAA Championship Alabama Crimson Tide. In 2012, Lacy was given the starting nod for the Tide with former starter Trent Richardson being drafted by the Browns in the first round. He broke out to 1322 yards rushing and 17 TDs in an SEC conference known for their strong defenses. David Wilson is only in his second year being drafted by the Giants in the first round of the 2012 draft and wasn’t given much of an opportunity with Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) locked in the role. Well, Bradshaw isn’t here anymore and the flashes Wilson showed last season have granted him the starting gig in 2013. Wilson is also a returner, which adds to his value in leagues that record return yards for players. Lacy belongs to a pass first offense which could scare many players away, but adding the threat of a running game to the air it out at all costs type of offense in GB will not only save Rodgers longevity but will help the Packers move the ball. Who to pick will come down to the offensive lines, and the Packers is nearly non-existent. Both lines have taken some injuries but nothing worse than the loss of LT Bulaga in Green Bay. Despite both players being inexperienced I am taking Wilson over Lacy this season until he proves he can do it in a tough division with next to no offensive line.
Wide Receiver:
Danny Amendola (NE) vs. Wes Welker (DEN): One of the biggest storylines this off-season has been “what the hell do we make of the Pats offense??” and normally came with a head scratch or two. Wes Welker disgruntled over salary negotiations took less money to play for Brady’s career nemesis Peyton Manning in Denver. Meanwhile, in New England, cuts to Brandon Lloyd (FA) & Donte Stallworth (FA) took away more weapons for Brady. Rob Gronkowskies (NE) 5th surgery in a limited time, and Aaron Hernandez’ murder indictment has really put a damper on the Pats offense adding to the pressure on Brady’s shoulders. New England’s response was to bring in the poor mans Wes Welker in Danny Amendola. Prior to Welker becoming a Patriot his two years in Miami were lackluster gaining no more than 687 yards in a season. In his 6 years as a Patriot he failed to reach the 1,100 yard mark just once and only once caught less than 110 catches, including a 118 reception, 1,354 yard performance in 2012. Amendola has been shipped around a bit in his early career beginning with the Dallas Cowboys and only making it to their practice squad before being given a chance to develop with the Rams. Since doing so, Amendola has racked up at least 40 receptions in 3 of the 4 seasons with an injury riddled 2011 being the only reason he didn’t. Sure, that’s not the 110 a year Welker was doing, but he also didn’t have Tom Brady throwing him the ball, much like Welker in Miami, now he does. The Patriots drafted a couple of talented receivers to accompany Amendola but as long as he can stay healthy he will be the most targeted of the receivers on the Pats squad. Could Amendola turn into the next Welker? With Brady throwing him the ball, absolutely. Welker is currently the 12th drafted WR in an offense that already has Eric Decker (DEN) and Demaryius Thomas (DEN), while Amendola is the 17th drafted WR according to ESPN.com and the talent around him is much less compared to Welker. If given the chance, pass on Welker and draft Amendola you may feel dirty in doing so, but Tom Brady will make sure to wash you of all your sins.
Tight End:
Vernon Davis (SF) vs. Jermichael Finley (GB): Wait for a tight end! Yes, wait! Don’t waste your top picks on a TE that could end up haunting you all season long. Jimmy Graham (NO) is a great name to have, yet he only scored 5 more points than Gronk and 9 more than Tony Gonzalez (ATL), yet he is being drafted nearly 30 spots higher than both of them. Vernon Davis is currently being looped into the elite TE group, and his history shows that he should be. But a 5th or 6th rounder for a guy who only had 79 fantasy points last season? NO, just NO! Finley has been very consistent over the years and despite dropping his TD total from 8 to 2 last season he did receive more catches on less targets in 2012 than in ’11. Finley is currently being drafted 42 spots behind Davis who scored only 7 more fantasy points than Finley last year. Wait on the TE, get yourself a sold HB 2, a WR 3, a Flex or even that QB that you need before worrying about the TE position. There are plenty of solid options still available in the later rounds.
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Check me out during the season for my Players Owned in >25% of Leagues To Own column.