2014 College Football: Week 10 DFS – Early Only
Below are my favorite plays from various price ranges at each position for this week’s early college football contests on DraftKings. Within each price range, players are listed in the order in which I would prefer to roster them. If you’re looking for additional CFB DFS content, check out the work of Ben Pritchett of FantasyInsiders.com (@naturalslugger) and Chris Kay of LuDawgs.com (@realestchriskay).
Quarterbacks
High (Priced above $7,500)
When considering the most expensive players at each position, you have to consider whether the juice is worth the squeeze. In other words, is their price justified? To figure that out I look at how far above average a player’s price is and how far above average the player’s performance to date has been using standard deviations.
Let’s use Connor Halliday (Washington State, $9,300) as an example. Compared to the other 40 quarterbacks I considered for this slate of games, Halliday’s price is 1.84 standard deviations above the mean. But when you consider his fantasy production to this point, Halliday has been 2.42 standard deviations better than the average for this group of quarterbacks. That means Halliday has outperformed his price and looks like a value. Of course the quality of the opponent is a huge deal in college football, so I also make an adjustment for matchup (which I won’t waste time explaining). Halliday faces an above average pass defense in USC this week, so the gap between his performance and price narrows, but the matchup isn’t so bad that he isn’t still a value at this salary.
Among the seven quarterbacks priced above $7,500, Halliday is the only one whose production to date is further above average than his price once the adjustment is made for quality of opponent. That’s why Halliday is my favorite top tier quarterback play in early contests. Kenny Hill has actually been more productive than his price, but his starting job is very much up in the air. If you’re not a fan of Halliday, Shane Carden (East Carolina, $9,500) comes the closest of the other top tier QBs to justifying his price. But someone like Trevone Boykin doesn’t have production to date that justifies his $10,100 price.
Medium (Priced between $6,000 and $7,500)
In the middle tier, a player being worth his price is still important, but upside is also a consideration if you’re going to be playing in a big tournament. Upside obviously matters in the top tier as well, but all the players in that tier have a fair bit of upside. And you have to get something for that much money because you’re going to have to skimp elsewhere.
A guy like Justin Thomas (Georgia Tech, $7,500) strikes me as a nice mix of value and upside. Thomas carries the ball a lot which gives him a nice floor. He is averaging 15.3 carries per game and almost 12 fantasy points per game from rushing production. The upside comes from his arm as he’s been very hit or miss through the air so far. In five of his eight games he has failed to produce double digit fantasy points with his arm. But in the other three games he has produced at least 19 fantasy points with his arm. That gives him 30+ fantasy point upside with a decent floor.
Brad Kayaa (Miami, $6,800) strikes me more as just an upside play. Because Kayaa is strictly a passer, his floor can be quite low. He has failed to hit double digit fantasy points in two of eight games, and he has only cracked 20 points in three games. But he’s facing North Carolina this week, and the Tar Heels are allowing an average of 20.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is the seventh worst mark in the country.
Low (Priced under $6,000)
Down here with the cheaper players we’re looking more for upside, but the definition of upside changes a bit. Instead of looking for 30+ fantasy point performances, you’ll gladly take 20+ fantasy points from a guy in this price range. Jacoby Brissett (NC State, $5,300) started the season with five straight 20+ fantasy point games, and he threw in a 30 point game. After struggling for a couple of weeks after that, Brissett just missed another 20 point game in his last game. He’ll have a good chance to hit that mark again in an above average matchup against Syracuse.
Justin Holman (Central Florida, $5,100) actually has a nice floor for someone in this price range as he has scored at least 13 fantasy points in six of seven games. But he also has some upside as he has topped 22 points in three games. He could be used in a cash game or GPP lineup.
Running Backs
High (Priced $7,500 or Higher)
Once again, it’s all about value with these expensive options. And Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska, $10,300) and Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin, $9,800) are worth paying up for this week. Abdullah’s price is about three standard deviations above the mean among this group of running backs, but his performance to date is about three and a half standard deviations above the mean. Gordon’s price and performance are almost equally above average. When you factor in that he has an above average matchup (as does Abdullah), spending for the most expensive running backs makes sense. Get one of these guys in your lineup. And you have more than one lineup, get exposure to both of them.
Medium (Priced between $5,000 and $6,600)
Only two running backs available for this slate have more carries this year than James Conner (Pittsburgh, $6,600). With that heavy workload, Conner has more fantasy points than all but seven other running backs in the country. Yet there are seven backs more expensive than Conner this week, and they aren’t the seven guys with more fantasy points than him. Pitt didn’t give him much work playing catch up with Georgia Tech last week, but he should see much more work against five-point underdog Duke. And even when Pitt had to throw a lot last week, Conner still ran for 120 yards and three scores on 10 touches. Love him at this price.
Kevin Parks ($5,800, Virginia) will get a chance this week to face the Georgia Tech defense against which Conner averaged 12 yards per carry last week. For the year, GT is allowing 5.38 yards per carry, which is the 15th worst mark in the country. Parks struggled early in the year, but in his last four games he has carried the ball 82 times for 416 yards with three scores. With an average of 20 carries and 100 yards in his last four, you have to like that as his floor with a matchup that could lend itself to much more upside.
It’s too bad Keith Ford looks like he’ll return to the Oklahoma backfield this week because Samaje Perine (Oklahoma, $6,400) would have been a nice play against Iowa State. The Cyclones might be the best matchup for running backs in this slate of games because they’re allowing over 40 fantasy points per game to running backs. If Ford ends up sitting out again for Oklahoma this week, get Perine in a lineup. Or even if Ford plays you could take a shot on him being eased back into the offense and Perine carrying the heavy load for one more week.
Low (Priced under $5,000)
Pretty much all backs in this territory have things that make them risky. For example, Russell Hansbrough (Missouri, $4,200) has failed to produce double digit fantasy points in half of his eight games, and he has fewer than five fantasy points in three of those games. But he does get the slight majority of carries in the split between him and Marcus Murphy, and he’s clearly the goal line back with seven touchdowns to Murphy’s one. He’s a solid play this week against Kentucky who is bottom third in the country in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
Marlon Mack (South Florida, $4,900) has had some big games in games his team has won, but South Florida is a 10-point dog to Houston this week. If you think USF can keep it close, Mack could be a value. Centarius Donald (Louisiana-Monroe, $3,800) could run into a problem similar to Mack. With his team a 29-point dog against Texas A&M, you have to wonder how much work he’ll get. In the two games that Donlad was active when ULM lost by more than a touchdown, Donald had just 10 and 11 carries. But he has three games with 20+ carries and at least 100 yards or a touchdown. And then Lavon Coleman (Washington, $3,400) has a fantastic matchup against Colorado who has the fourth worst run defense in the country according to sports-reference.com’s schedule adjusted metrics. He didn’t play last week and Shaq Thompson came over from the defensive side to carry the ball 21 times. If Coleman is healthy I have to think Thompson will go back to linebacker. And if Coleman gets his average of 15 touches, he can do some damage against Colorado.
Wide Receivers
High (Priced above $7,000)
It’s been about 1,200 words since I told you that I liked Halliday and Carden among the expensive QBs, but I also like their top receivers among the expensive options at the position. Vince Mayle (Washington State, $7,900) has performed about three and a half standard deviations better than average, but his price is only two and a half standard deviations above average. Even with a below average matchup against USC, Mayle looks like a value. Justin Hardy (East Carolina, $8,000) has a salary that matches his production, but his good matchup with Temple makes him a solid play.
Then we have Nelson Spruce (Colorado, $7,400) who is third in the country among receivers in fantasy points so far. Yet he’s only the seventh most expensive receiver in this slate of games, and the two receivers ahead of him in fantasy points aren’t available in this slate. He also leads the country in receptions. To be fair, 19 of his 77 catches came against California who has the worst pass defense in the country. But he’s facing Washington this week who is allowing the 19th most passing yards per game this year. He’s struggled recently, which has obviously depressed his price, but I think that makes him a potential big-time value this week.
Medium (Priced between $5,500 and $7,000)
DraftKings is a PPR format, so it’s hard not to lean towards the only two receivers in this price range who have more than 60 receptions this year. Nelson Agholor (USC, $6,700) has been a borderline top 15 receiver, and his price is a little low for his production to this point. He also has a good matchup against Washington State. I also like DaeSean Hamilton (Penn State, $6,100), but he only has one touchdown on the year. I’d rather pay an extra $600 for Agholor who has six more touchdowns than Hamilton.
If you want to use Kayaa at QB, it’s probably not a bad idea to stack him with a receiver since Kayaa only produces points through the air. If you’re going for upside with a stack in a GPP, stack him with Phillip Dorsett (Miami, $6,000). Dorsett has far less than 60 receptions with just 18 receptions. But he’s a big play threat as he has turned those 18 catches into six touchdowns with an average of 31.4 yards per catch. With this matchup against UNC, it’s entirely possible he catches a couple of big ones.
Low (Priced under $5,500)
The receiver in this price range with the most receptions this year is, unsurprisingly, a guy who plays for the highest volume passing team in the country, Washington State’s Isiah Myers ($5,300). If you couldn’t get Halliday and Mayle into a lineup (that combo would be 34.4% of your budget), Myers is a good alternative. In fact, Myers has one more touchdown than Mayle this year, so saving the money on Myers might be a good idea.
Stefon Diggs (Maryland, $4,600) has the second highest reception total of anyone in this price range, and Diggs has a touchdown in four straight games. Diggs’ only reception last week was the touchdown catch as Maryland couldn’t come close to hanging with Wisconsin. But they’re only a 2.5 point dog against Penn State, so look for Diggs to bounce back.
If you’re looking for a punt play at receiver, take a look Kenzee Jackson (Louisiana-Monroe, $3,100). If Donald can’t get enough work out of the backfield playing catchup with A&M, maybe Jackson can get enough work to return value on his almost minimum price. Jackson has at least five catches in six of seven games, and he has scored in two of his last three.
Tight Ends
At tight end this week we have one guy that’s far better than any other option but maybe a bit overpriced and two guys that look like solid values. The elite option is E.J. Bibbs (Iowa State, $4,300). A few hundred bucks cheaper might be a more appropriate price, but if you have money to spend at tight end, Bibbs is where you spend it. If you’re looking to save at tight end (which I almost always look to do), you could go with Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech, $3,000) or David Grinnage (NC State, $2,600). Other than Bibbs, no tight end in this slate has more receptions than Hodges, which is nice with the PPR format. And Grinnage is your punt play of the week as the six-foot-five big guy has three touchdown catches in the last two weeks, but he averages only 2.4 catches per game.
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