2014 College Football: Week 12 DFS – Early Only
Below are my favorite plays from various price ranges at each position for this week’s early college football contests on DraftKings. Within each price range, players are listed in the order in which I would prefer to roster them. If you’re looking for additional CFB DFS content, check out the work of Ben Pritchett of FantasyInsiders.com (@naturalslugger) and Chris Kay of LuDawgs.com (@realestchriskay), especially if you want to play the late contests as each will write up plays for that slate of games.
Quarterbacks
High (Priced over $7,500)
We’ve got quite a group of quarterbacks available in the early slate. Three of the top five fantasy point scorers at the position are available as well as two others in the top ten and a guy who scored 80 points in his last two starts before an injury about a month ago. With so many good options available the question becomes who provides the most value for their price.
For my money, Rakeem Cato (Marshall, $7,800) is the best value play. When you look at his production relative to average for this group of QBs and his price relative to average, his price is very appropriate. But when you factor in matchup, Cato becomes undervalued. He’ll face Rice this week who is the 26th worst pass defense in the country according to sports-reference.com’s schedule adjusted metric and 32nd worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs through the air.
The guy who had the 80 points in a two game stretch was Deshaun Watson (Clemson, $8,100). In the game after that monster two-game stretch Watson was injured, but he’ll return to the lineup this week. If this was just the next game after the big two games, you have to assume his price would be much higher. Take advantage of the uncertainty baked into his price and bet on his upside.
While Cato and Watson are cheap enough that they could really return value, it would be hard to fault you for paying up for Trevone Boykin (TCU, $9,500). He is averaging 35.8 fantasy points per game over his last four games, and he has had games of 43 and 48.1 points in that span. The matchup with Kansas is obviously a good one, but there is some risk that TCU jumps out early and doesn’t feel the need to push it with Boykin. But surely TCU knows what impact having a Heisman winner would have on recruiting and might let him get his stats no matter what.
Medium (Priced between $6,000 and $7,400)
There isn’t a huge price gap between Cato and Anu Solomon (Arizona, $7,300), but the $500 between them is still too much. Their production this year is virtually identical, and Solomon’s matchup against Washington is about as good as Cato’s. So if Cato is a good play, Solomon has to be a good play as well. Because he’s a bit cheaper, Solomon is probably the better play. But if you’re making multiple lineups, get both of them in a few lineups.
Since completely taking over as the starting quarterback, Blake Sims (Alabama, $6,200) has been boom or bust. In those six games he has three games with fewer than 18 fantasy points and three games with 29 fantasy points or more. The question is whether he can hit 30 points this week or whether he’ll finish with half that many points. If he hits 30 points at this price, he’ll only cost you $206 per fantasy point, an excellent number. Mississippi State is bottom 30 in the country in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to QBs through the air, so the matchup is not prohibitive at all.
Low (Priced under $6,000)
Arizona’s Solomon isn’t the only good QB play in the Arizona-Washington game. Cyler Miles (Washington, $5,000) has some nice upside for this price point. He has three touchdowns or more in three games this year, and he has 50+ rushing yards in three games as well. He’s also been pretty efficient throwing the ball, and he has 12 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions. The problem through the air is simply that he hasn’t been a high volume passer. This game has a decent total of 60, and Washington is the underdog, so he could attempt 30 or more passes for the first time this year. If he does, he could do some damage against Arizona who has allowed the 14th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through the air.
Last week Jacoby Brissett (NC State, $4,700) was mentioned in this space as a bounce back candidate after a disappointing stretch of four games. That call worked out as Brissett easily topped 20 fantasy points. Despite the bounce back, Brissett’s price dropped $300 this week. To be fair, Brissett still struggled throwing the ball last week and was saved by 77 rushing yards and a rushing score, easily his best rushing performance of the year. It’s certainly a concern that he doesn’t run as much again, but he did throw the ball very well in the first five weeks of the season. Bank on one facet of his game coming through, which would be more than enough production with this price tag.
Running Backs
High (Priced $7,000 or above)
Let’s start by saying that if Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska, $7,700) is fully healthy, he’s a steal at this price, even with a tough matchup against Wisconsin. He had only one yard in his last game after suffering an MCL sprain, yet he still ranks fourth among running backs in fantasy points this year. He’s a complete stud and matchup proof if healthy.
Aside from Abdullah, James Conner (Pittsburgh, $9,900) is the play of this tier. For starters, Conner has five games with 25 or more carries and 17 touchdowns in just nine games. He’s a horse. And he’s a horse who happens to be playing in an awesome matchup this week. He’ll be facing North Carolina who has allowed the 18th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (receptions and receiving yards excluded). This game also has a pretty high total of 69 because UNC can score as well. That should be good for Conner’s volume.
Medium (Priced between $5,500 and $6,900)
The play of the week at any position may be Tevin Coleman (Indiana, $6,800). Coleman is seventh among running backs in fantasy points for the year, yet there are eight running backs more expensive than Coleman in this slate of games. That doesn’t compute. The reason Coleman’s price is so low is that he hasn’t scored in three weeks after scoring 11 times in the first six weeks of the season. He also failed to reach 100 yards for this first time this year in his last game.
But Coleman’s schedule has been very difficult recently. In his last two games he has faced two of the five best run defenses in the country according to sports-reference.com’s schedule adjusted metric. And the other game was against Michigan State’s stout defense. But this week the matchup turns back in his favor against Rutgers who is one of the 25 most fantasy friendly matchups for running backs. If you’re only making one lineup this week, Coleman has to be in it.
Mark Weisman (Iowa, $5,500) isn’t a very efficient runner as he averages only 3.7 yards per carry. But he is a touchdown machine. Prior to only scoring once last week, Weisman scored at least two touchdowns in five straight games. He could easily start a new multi-score streak against Illinois this week because the Illini have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (excluding receiving production).
With Coleman such a good option and Weisman having such a good matchup, there may be no need to look elsewhere in this price range. But if you want a different option, Keith Ford (Oklahoma, $6,200) has a matchup against Texas Tech that is every bit as good as Weisman’s matchup. The problem is that the OU backfield is a three headed monster at this point with Alex Ross and Samaje Perine getting work as well. Ford got the most work in his first game back from injury last week, but it’s hard to trust this backfield right now.
Low (Priced under $5,500)
Two weeks ago Florida destroyed Georgia on the ground. They racked up another 214 yards on the ground against Vanderbilt last week, and Matt Jones (Florida, $4,200) led the team in carries with 17. Unfortunately, the other Florida running back, the quarterback and the backup quarterback got the four rushing touchdowns of the game. But one game is hardly enough to tell us that Jones isn’t going to get goal line work. Hell, he scored twice the week before, so it’s really no concern at all.
The thing that’s so encouraging for Jones is volume. Since Treon Harris took over at QB two games ago, Florida has called 110 runs and 28 passes. Jones is either the tip of that run-heavy spear or at least equal partners with Kelvin Taylor (Florida, $3,900) who is also a good option if you need the extra $300. If they run the ball 50+ times again, both are going to do serious damage against a South Carolina team that has allowed the 16th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (receiving production excluded). Conner is such an expensive option, so there’s no problem bypassing the expensive tier and going with Coleman and Jones at RB.
If you need a punt play at RB, take a look at the NC State backs. Shadrach Thornton (NC State, $3,200) has been getting a little more work than Matt Dayes (NC State, $3,100) recently, so he’s probably preferable. But they each have just one touchdown a piece in the last five games. Punting RB isn’t necessary at all, but if you feel like you need to, pick one of these guys.
Wide Receivers
High (Priced above $6,500)
If Coleman isn’t the play of the week, Amari Cooper (Alabama, $7,600) is the best play. Cooper is the most expensive receiver of the slate but only by $100. He should be way more expensive than anyone else at the position. He’s one of the top three scoring fantasy receivers this year, and no other top 12 receiver is available in the early games. A price tag at or above $9,000 wouldn’t be unreasonable.
Again, if you’re making just one lineup, Cooper has to be in it along with Coleman. As far as “must plays” go, neither is that expensive so you should easily be able to make it work with both of them. If you’re making multiple lineups, you should have Cooper in at least two-thirds of your lineups. I was a bit lukewarm on Cooper’s quarterback above, but he should certainly be stacked with Cooper in some of your lineups. If you make three lineups, put Cooper in at least two of them, and stack him with Sims in one of those two.
If you have room for two expensive receivers (entirely possible), you could go with Tyler Boyd (Pittsburgh, $7,300). Cooper should be more than $300 more expensive than Boyd, but that’s a problem with Cooper’s price and not Boyd’s. With a great matchup against North Carolina, Boyd’s price is more than fair. However, there are some really nice mid price and cheap options at receiver so Boyd may not be necessary.
Medium (Priced between $5,000 and $6,500)
There may be no stranger game log than that of Josh Doctson (TCU, $5,400). He has just one game with more than 76 receiving yards, which makes him seem very risky. But that one game with more than 76 yards was a 225 yard outburst against Oklahoma State. He had two touchdowns in that game as well, and he has two other multi-touchdown games this year. He obviously has some serious upside, and you don’t often see that kind of upside for this price. The price is so low because he only has a combined 15.2 points in his last two games. Take advantage of recent performance depressing his price and hope he delivers on his upside.
William Fuller (Notre Dame, $5,500) hasn’t had a monster game like Doctson, but he does have a couple of multi-score games. What Fuller has that Doctson doesn’t is consistency. Fuller has scored in eight of his nine games with 75 yards or more in six of nine. Dcotson has the better matchup against Kansas with Fuller facing Northwestern, so that’s why I’m leaning Doctson. But no one could fault you for preferring Fuller.
Low (Priced under $5,000)
Arizona’s QB, Solomon, was mentioned earlier as a good play, and we find his top receiver, Cayleb Jones (Arizona, $4,600) here in the cheapest tier of receivers. Jones has sputtered lately and recorded his worst game of the year last week in a good matchup with Colorado. But we’re still talking about a guy with 53 catches and eight touchdowns. That alone makes him worth rostering at this price. But when you throw in the aforementioned good matchup against Washington, he looks even better.
Bradley Marquez (Texas Tech, $4,100) has just one touchdown in his last four games, but he has at least five catches and at least 50 yards in each of those games. That’s a pretty decent floor for someone in this price range. But in two of those last four games he’s faced defenses that rank in the top 30 in fewest fantasy points allowed per game to receivers, and in a third game he faced an above average defense in that respect. In the one game during that stretch where he had an above average matchup he found the end zone and produced 19 fantasy points. He has a well above average matchup this week against Oklahoma who allows the 22nd most fantasy points per game to receivers.
If you need a punt play at the position, try Jaydon Mickens (Washington, $3,200). As most punt plays are, this is an extremely risky play as Mickens has just three catches in his last three games. But he still leads him team in catches by a wide margin. Washington just spreads the ball around to a ton of different guys in the passing game. But as mentioned when discussing the Washington QB, this is a great matchup that could lead to more volume through the air.
Tight Ends
It would be nice if you could just leave tight end blank and spend your money elsewhere because tight end is a worthless position in CFB. Last week Maxx Williams caught three touchdowns at the position, but there was no reason to see that coming. Williams is good, but expecting that production, or anything close to it, would not have been reasonable.
Spending as little money as possible on tight end is generally my strategy since I’m not allowed to leave it blank and spend my money elsewhere. The minimum price for a tight end is $2,500, so that’s usually what my tight ends cost. That said, Jesse James (Penn State, $2,500) is your punt TE of the week. He averages a little more than three catches per game and has three scores in nine games. If for whatever reason you have a little extra money left over, you can spend it on Cam Serigne (Wake Forest, $3,300). He averages a little more than four catches per game, and has four touchdowns on the year, including two in his last game.
Or feel free to plug in some other minimum price tight end you like. It probably doesn’t matter.
Editor’s note: Serigne is questionable this week after taking this hard (totally legal) hit last week.