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2014 College Football: Week 12 DFS – Late Only

mack land
Marlon Mack
Jeff Hanisch / USA TODAY Sports

Below are my favorite plays from various price ranges at each position for this week’s late college football contests on DraftKings. Within each position, players are listed in the order in which I would prefer to roster them. If you’re looking for additional CFB DFS content, check out the work of Ben Pritchett of FantasyInsiders.com (@naturalslugger) and Chris Kay of LuDawgs.com (@realestchriskay). You can find my breakdown of the early slate of games here.

Quarterbacks

As far as safe cash game plays go, it’s hard to argue against Connor Cook (Michigan State, $6,100). He’s averaging a solid 20.8 fantasy points per game, and he has only failed to record at least 18 fantasy points in two of nine games. If he hits his average at this price point, he’ll return value. But he’s not really a GPP play because he hasn’t topped 25 fantasy points in any game this year.

If it’s upside you want, you’ll obviously have to pay for it. Nick Marshall (Auburn, $9,500) is a safe bet to give you a big day. Excluding the first game of the year in which he served a first half suspension, Marshall is averaging just over 30 fantasy points per game. If he hits that mark, he’ll be worth the price. Georgia is below average against the run, so it would be no surprise at all for Marshall to run at least two in for scores, something he’s done in four of his last five games. There should be enough cheaper options at other positions to fit Marshall into some lineups.

While Marshall is a safe bet to give you a big day, he doesn’t really have a chance to provide a lot of value at that price point. But Grant Hedrick (Boise State, $8,100) could provide value even with an expensive price tag. Hedrick is coming off back-to-back games with four passing touchdowns and at least 350 yards. He also has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games. In those two games he has 96.08 fantasy points with an insane 55.78 point performance last week. The problem is that in the seven games prior to his breakout he averaged just under 20 fantasy points per game. His value potential is much greater than Marshall’s, but Marshall is much more bankable. Choosing between the two is a matter of personal preference.

If you want to go cheap at quarterback, take a look at Quinton Flowers (South Florida, $4,000). The freshman will be making his first start of the season, and he hasn’t been good in the very limited work he’s had so far. He has attempted just five passes and has thrown two picks. But it’s hard to ignore any quarterback facing SMU as Flowers will this week. SMU has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (passing production only). If you want to gamble, Flowers is your guy.

Running Backs

Aside from the fact that he’s a freshman making his first start, you can probably pass on Flowers because SMU is almost as fantasy friendly to running backs as they are to quarterbacks. To have exposure to the SMU defense you should go with Marlon Mack (South Florida, $4,400). Among running backs available in this slate of games, Mack’s production to date is basically average. Yet his price is below the average of this group of backs. That alone makes him worth consideration. But once you throw in the matchup he becomes a great value play.

Jay Ajayi (Boise State, $8,800) is the Nick Marshall of running backs in this slate. Yes, you’re going to have to pay up for him, but he’s money in the bank. He averages 33.1 fantasy points per game, and he’s only had one stinker and one other below average game in his nine games this year. Ajayi and Cook at QB make a ton of sense as a base for a cash game lineup. But Ajayi is also a fine GPP play. The only problem with Ajayi as a GPP play is that it could be difficult fitting him in a lineup with Marshall, and I don’t like Cook in a GPP. You could just stack him with Hedrick because they’ve shown they can both have a monster game in the same game, but I’m still a little hesitant to do that. But it’s not super objectionable.

Donnell Pumphrey (San Diego State, $7,300) is essentially a poor man’s version of Ajayi. Like Ajayi, Pumphrey has had a couple of bad games but has been primarily a steady producer. He averages 24.5 fantasy points per game, which is about 75% of Ajayi’s average, but his price is about 20% lower than Ajayi’s. In terms of dollars spent per fantasy point, they’re largely the same guy. If you can’t afford Ajayi, Pumphrey is a fine alternative. You could make the case for Jeremy Langford (Michigan State, $7,500) over Pumphrey with Langford having three touchdowns in three straight games. Langford also has a slightly better matchup and potentially a better game flow situation. I’d recommend exposure to both but slightly prefer Pumphrey.

I’ve been trying to talk myself into D.J. Foster (Arizona State, $6,200) because his price should be higher given his production this year. But most of his production came in the first three weeks of the season against a non-FBS team and two of the five worst run defenses in the country. He did have 21 carries for 120 yards last week, but he did very little in the five games prior. I’m also trying to talk myself into Marcus Murphy (Missouri, $4,300) and/or Russell Hansbrough (Missouri, $4,100) in a great matchup against Texas A&M. Murphy is the more efficient runner, but Hansbrough gets a little more work and scores most of the touchdowns. Both are good options at this price in this matchup, but it will be hard to spend about this much on a back and not just go with Mack. Murphy might make a lineup or two for me just for diversity’s sake, but Mack is the better play.

Wide Receivers

It would be nice if Tyrone Swoopes was better, but John Harris (Texas, $5,000) has produced nonetheless. Harris hasn’t scored in four straight games, but in the two games in that stretch in which he has had a good matchup, Harris has had games with 147 and 165 yards. That’ll play even without a touchdown. Texas will have a good matchup again this week against Oklahoma State who has allowed the 16th most fantasy points per game to receivers.

Above I described Michigan State’s QB as a high floor, low upside option, and his top receiver, Tony Lippett (Michigan State, $6,400) can obviously be described the same way. Lippett averages 21.8 fantasy points per game and has failed to reach at least 17 fantasy points in all but one game. But he has just two games with more than 30 fantasy points. Like his QB, he’s a better cash game play. Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong is basically the same guy as Lippett with a slightly higher per game average, but with only one game over 30 fantasy points. With Strong being $1,000 more expensive, it just makes more sense to go with Lippett.

Lippett is the most expensive receiver I can recommend this week because I’m not big on Florida State’s Rashad Greene. Based on his production his price ($8,000) should be closer to Strong’s ($7,400), and Greene doesn’t have a great matchup against Miami. With no one to really spend your money on at receiver, paying up for guys like Marshall and Ajayi should be no problem.

Other cheaper guys to target are Bud Sasser (Missouri, $4,400) and Travin Dural (LSU, $3,200). Sasser averaged 19.4 fantasy points in his first five games and is averaging almost 25 fantasy points per game in his last two games. But he absolutely disappeared in between those samples of games with just 2.3 total points against Florida and Georgia. Those complete no shows are concerning, but his price should have rebounded more than this by now. He’s a great value play. Dural is much more boom-or-bust. He has just 14 catches in his last six games, but he did have a touchdown in three of those games. With an average of 23.4 yards per reception, Dural could pay off big time at this price.

Tight Ends

I say this every week, but tight end is such a dumb position in college football. Spend as little money as you can on tight end and spend your money elsewhere in spots where you’ll actually get production. The cheapest guy I can find that’s worth playing is Jake Roh (Boise state, $2,600) for just a $100 more than the minimum. He’ll probably be in all of my late lineups.

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