2014 College Football: Week 13 DFS – Early Only
Below are my favorite plays from various price ranges at each position for this week’s early college football contests on DraftKings. Within each price range, players are listed in the order in which I would prefer to roster them. If you’re looking for additional CFB DFS content, check out the work of Ben Pritchett of FantasyInsiders.com (@naturalslugger) and Chris Kay of LuDawgs.com (@realestchriskay), especially if you want to play the late contests as each will write up plays for that slate of games.
Quarterbacks
High (Priced above $8,000)
Let me start by saying that this position destroyed me last week. From DeShaun Watson’s injury and Trevone Boykin inexplicably sucking all the way to both quarterbacks in the Arizona-Washington game failing to throw a touchdown pass, it was a rough week of picking signal callers. My plays at other positions had a fairly high hit rate, but I was ultimately doomed by an almost complete lack of production at QB.
But surely I cannot whiff completely at the position this week if I recommend Marcus Mariota (Oregon, $9,800). Aside from Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett, no quarterback has more fantasy points than Mariota, and Dak Prescott is the only other one close. There is only an eight point gap between Mariota and Barrett this year, yet Barrett is $1,000 more expensive this weekend. The two should be priced closer together. In fact, you could argue that Mariota should be more expensive after factoring in matchup. He’ll face Colorado who has allowed the fifth most fantasy points in the country through the air and the 31st most on the ground. Barrett’s matchup with Indiana is also a good one, but not quite as good as Mariota’s. Mariota is the play of the week at QB. Find a way to fit him in if you’re only making one lineup.
If you’re making multiple lineups, you should also have exposure to Rakeem Cato (Marshall, $7,800). Cato has at least 33 fantasy points in seven of 10 games this year, and he’s priced pretty appropriately. With an above average matchup against UAB, he might even be a tad underpriced.
Medium (Priced between $6,000 and $7,900)
There is no better matchup for a quarterback than the California Golden Bears. The Bears are allowing an average of 28.2 fantasy points per game through the air, which is the worst in the country, and the next closest team, Toledo, is allowing 23.2 fantasy points per game through the air. The gap between Cal and Toledo is the same as the gap between Toledo and the 22nd most pass friendly defense in the country. Kevin Hogan (Stanford, $6,400) will have the pleasure of facing Cal this week. Hogan has been boom-or-bust this year with five game of at least 23 fantasy points and five games with fewer than 15 fantasy points. In the five good games he has averaged 29.6 fantasy points. If he hits that number this week, he’ll cost you just $216 per fantasy point, an excellent value.
Aside from Hogan, Taylor Kelly (Arizona State, $7,700) has one of the best matchups of the slate against Washington State. Because Wazzou throws the ball so much themselves, they allow a lot of fantasy points through the air to opponents as well. They’re the third most fantasy friendly defense in terms of passing points allowed. Kelly is averaging 26.1 fantasy points per game this year, and he has been pretty good in the last two weeks with 55 total fantasy points against two above average pass defenses.
And then Tyler Murphy (Boston College, $6,600) runs too much to be ignored. Murphy is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game this year just in rushing production. He only averages about half of that with his arm, but that’s enough to make him worth owning at this price point. The main draw with Murphy is simply that the floor is fairly high because of his legs, even if he lacks a ton of upside.
Low (Priced Under $6,000)
If anyone has a matchup as good as Hogan and Kelly it’s Justin Holman (UCF, $5,700) against SMU. Prior to last week, SMU hadn’t held a single opponent to fewer than 38 points. They held USF to 14 points last week, which was another thing that really hurt me last week. But I should’ve known better as the USF-SMU game was played in the city I live in yet I failed to take into account the fact that it was 36 degrees and rainy. I fully expect the SMU defense to regress back to completely awful.
If you need to go as cheap as you can at QB, take a look at Sefo Liufau (Colorado, $4,900). He’ll be facing Mariota and the Ducks, which is a good matchup for quarterbacks just because of volume. Teams facing Oregon average 40.5 pass attempts per game, the seventh highest mark in the country. Plus, Liufau averages 45.3 pass attempts per game. That volume should allow him to return value at this price.
Running Backs
High (Priced above $7,500)
In my opinion all the expensive running backs this week are overpriced. A few are just slightly overpriced, but those particular backs could be in games with game flow not amenable to volume on the ground. David Cobb (Minnesota, $7,700) is one of those guys, but the concerns about game flow aren’t extreme with him. Cobb and the Gophers are an underdog, but only by 13 points. That’s a fairly large number, but not so large that Minnesota should have to go away from their talented back for much of the game. The favorite in the game is Nebraska who just allowed the most rushing yards in one game to a single player in history.
Tevin Coleman (Indiana, $8,100) is also pretty fairly priced, but his game flow concerns are much more significant. Indiana is a 30 point underdog against Ohio State. The good news is that Indiana has the 11th worst passing offense in the country. The Hoosiers may have no choice but to give it to Coleman as much as they can no matter the score.
Based on production so far this year, the price for James Conner (Pittsburgh, $8,900) is about right, but when you factor in matchup he’s probably overpriced as he’ll face Syracuse who is 9th in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. But Conner has 21 touchdowns on the year and is averaging three touchdowns per game over his last four games. Admittedly, all four of his matchups in that stretch have been above average matchups. But Conner is the most expensive guy I can recommend. I know Melvin Gordon is a monster, but I can’t spend $11,200 in one spot.
Medium (Priced between $5,500 and $7,400)
I must say, pricing is pretty tough on running backs in this slate of games. In this middle tier there are once again no huge values, although the value potential is slightly better. Jeremy Langford (Michigan State, $7,400) is by far the safest play at the position this week. Langford is averaging 140 yards in his last four games, and he has 11 touchdowns in that span. There’s little reason to think he can’t hit 140 and a couple of scores this week against Rutgers who is 19th in most fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
If fully healthy (big emphasis on fully), Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska, $7,300) is a good value at this price. He got 19 touches last week, which should’ve been enough for him to be very productive if he was healthy. But he averaged only 3.8 yards per carry, well under his season long average of 6.5, so I have to assume the injury limited him. Whether he’s completely healthy will be very difficult to determine, but follow the reports as the week goes on and parse them as you will.
Assuming you can’t trust Abdullah, Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State, $6,500) is the second best play of this tier and maybe the second best play at the position. As mentioned earlier, the Buckeyes are a 30 point favorite against Indiana, and that may favor Elliott. Elliott’s production basically comes down to whether he gets 20 carries. In the four games where he has 20+ touches he is averaging 28.1 fantasy points. That would obviously be excellent production at this price.
My girlfriend is an Oklahoma alum, so I’m a psuedo-expert on Sooner football, and I can affirmatively say that Samaje Perine (Oklahoma, $6,700) is really, really good. The Adrian Peterson comparisons are a bit excessive, but he does have tons of potential, some of it already realized. Oklahoma let Texas Tech hang around much longer than they should have last week, but at some point they realized all they had to do was feed Perine, and he ate with 213 yards and three scores on 25 carries. It was encouraging that they fed Perine much more than their other backs as Perine got two-thirds of the runs alloted to backs. But enough work is being given to their other guys that I’m a bit hesitatnt to use him in a matchup where I think there will be fewer carries to be split. But if you’re making multiple lineups, you should have some exposure.
Low (Priced under $5,500)
Finally, some value. Or maybe it’s just that we finally have some backs with really good matchups in this tier. Other than Langford, no back in the other two tiers has a really good matchup. But the best matchup at the position belongs to DeAndre Washington (Texas Tech, $4,200) who will face Iowa State who has allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game on the ground this year. The problem with Washington is that he has just one touchdown this year, but Iowa State has given up 32 rushing touchdowns, which is about 3.5 per game. I’ll gamble on Washington finding the end zone.
On the other side of that game is Aaron Wimberly (Iowa State, $4,200). Texas Tech’s run defense isn’t as bad as Iowa State’s, but it’s damn close. Wimberly isn’t that good, but he does carry the ball more than any other back for Iowa State, so he has to at least be considered in such a good matchup. And he has had two good games in his last three after a rough five game stretch to start the year.
After failing to have double digit carries in losses against Maryland and Ohio State, Bill Belton (Penn State, $4,000) has bounced back in the last two weeks in wins against Indiana and Temple with 229 yards and two scores. Penn State is favored by 4.5 this week, so hopefully the trend of good performances in wins holds.
Wide Receivers
High (Priced above $6,000)
Your play of the week is Nelson Spruce (Colorado, $6,500). Spruce ranks second among all receivers in fantasy points this year, yet he’s only the tenth most expensive receiver in this slate of games. As mentioned above, teams have to throw a lot against Oregon, and Colorado throws it a lot to being with. Spruce leads the country with 99 receptions and averages 9.9 per game. It would be very surprising if he didn’t reach double digit receptions this week, and he could be well into the double digits. With his track record and this matchup, he’s grossly underpriced.
Jaelen Strong (Arizona State, $7,400) hasn’t been as productive as Spruce but he does have an even better matchup against Washington State. If you can only afford one expensive receiver, go with Spruce, but if you can fit both in a lineup, feel free. A Kelly-Strong stack is a nice play.
Medium (Priced between $4,500 and $5,900)
We already covered how bad Cal’s pass defense is, and Ty Montgomery (Stanford, $5,400) has serious upside in that matchup. Unfortunately, the 2013 All-American has failed to crack 100 yards in a single game this year, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown in six games. That’s obviously a huge concern, but that lack of recent performance has depressed his price to the point where he could be a huge value in such a good matchup. He’s more boom-or-bust than you’d expect from a top receiver against Cal, but you have to get him in some lineups.
Since Greg Ward took over at quarterback for Houston four games ago, Deontay Greenberry (Houston, $4,700) is averaging 17 fantasy points per game and has games of 22.3 and 31.6 fantasy points. In an above average matchup against Tulsa, he could be a very nice value.
If you want a QB-WR stack against SMU, Breshad Perriman (UCF, $4,600) is your guy. He’s averaging only 3.2 catches per game, but he averages almost 20 yards per catch and has touchdowns in four straight games and six of seven. And if you’re looking for a safe-ish PPR play, Isiah Myers (Washington State, $5,300) averages 6.8 catches per game and has 11 touchdowns in ten games.
Low (Priced under $4,500)
Going back to the Cal-Stanford game, Devon Cajuste (Stanford, $3,300) is the Cardinal’s second leading receiver, and you can have him for close to minimum price. That’s partly because Cajuste failed to record a catch last week against Utah. That’s obviously a concern, but Cajuste had five catches for 116 yards the game prior against Oregon. It’s also concerning that he hasn’t scored since he caught three touchdown passes against Army in early September. But at this price in this matchup, he’s worth taking a flier on in a GPP.
Cayleb Jones (Arizona, $4,400) has struggled lately, but he’s still a top 25 receiver on the year who is the 25th most expensive receiver in this slate of games where all receivers obviously aren’t available to roster. His recent performance has pushed his price down to the point where he could be a real value if he has any kind of bounce back game at all. His matchup with Utah is above average, so there’s a decent chance the bounce back game could be coming.
If you need someone to stack Mariota with (not necessary since Mariota does so much with his legs), give Devon Allen (Oregon, $3,300) a look. The entire Oregon offense is a big play machine, but Allen leads the team in yards per reception. He hasn’t scored in five games, so he’s a total gamble, but if you’re rostering Mariota, you could do worse with a salary relief option.
Tight Ends
If you’ve read this post in previous weeks, you know I think tight ends are useless, so I’m not going to waste much time on them. I recommend spending as little as possible on the position, so I’d recommend Jesse James (Penn State, $2,600) as a punt play. If you have a bit more to spend on the position for whatever reason, go with Bucky Hodges ($3,200, Virgina Tech).