2014 College Football: Week 15 CFB DFS
Below are my favorite plays from various price ranges at each position for this week’s Saturday college football contests on DraftKings. Within each price range, players are listed in the order in which I would prefer to roster them. If you’re looking for additional CFB DFS content, check out the work of Ben Pritchett of FantasyInsiders.com (@naturalslugger) and Chris Kay of LuDawgs.com (@realestchriskay).
Quarterbacks
High (Priced above $8,000)
With this being everyone’s last chance to impress the playoff selection committee, it’s hard to imagine TCU doing anything other than absolutely destroying Iowa State this week. That makes it worth paying up for the most expensive quarterback of the day, Trevone Boykin (TCU, $9,400). Boykin has slowed a bit in his last four games, but he’s faced three top 40 defenses in that span and not a single below average defense. That changes this week when he faces an Iowa State team that ranks 112th of 128 in total defense according to Football Outsiders. And they’re particularly horrendous against the run. They’re the third worst run defense in the country according to FO and they rank 119th in rushing touchdowns allowed (34) and 123rd in rushing yards allowed per game (250.73). Boykin should run wild in this one.
Grant Hedrick (Boise State, $8,600) could also return value against Fresno State, probably the second worst pass defense playing on Saturday. Fresno ranks 105th in the country in pass defense according to FO. I’d prefer Hedrick be a hair cheaper, but with such a good matchup the price is probably pretty appropriate. He has three passing touchdowns or more in three of his last five games and would definitely return value if he can do that again.
Medium (Priced between $7,000 and $7,900)
Nobody in this price range stands out as an obvious value. If anyone is a value in this range, it’s Jameis Winston (Florida State, $7,100). His fantasy production to date has been just slightly above average, and his price is just slightly above the average for quarterbacks available on Saturday. When you throw in a decent matchup against Georgia Tech, he’s maybe a bit underpriced. I won’t be rostering Winston because I think Florida State is a sham and want to see them knocked out of the playoff so a better team gets that opportunity. But personal bias shouldn’t have a place in DFS, so Winston must be recognized as a decent play.
If you’re looking for someone else in this price range, Jake Waters (Kansas State, $7,500) is priced OK, but he just hasn’t been running much in the last five games. He has just 69 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown in that time frame. If he’s not running, he’s not quite worth his price this week.
I’d recommend just spending in the upper or lower tiers at quarterback this week unless you like Winston.
Low (Priced under $7,000)
Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati, $6,500) has failed to crack 200 yards passing in three of his last four games, but two of those games were blowouts where he wasn’t really needed and one of them was an ugly 14-6 game against Temple last weekend. But in the game in that stretch where he did crack 200 yards, he threw for 436 yards and four touchdowns in a shootout against East Carolina.
Kiel’s matchup with Houston this week strikes me more as a shootout as opposed to a blowout or a slugfest. Since Houston made a change at quarterback six games ago, Houston has scored at least 24 points in every game and is averaging 30.5 points per game. Now I don’t think these teams are going to combine for 100 points like Cincy and ECU did, but this game could easily get into or beyond the 60’s. If it does, Kiel should be a value with a below average price despite being a slightly above average fantasy quarterback for the year.
The change Houston made at quarterback was giving the job to Greg Ward Jr. (Houston, $6,600) who is averaging about 22 fantasy points per game since taking over. Had he played all 11 games with that average, he’d have around 240 fantasy points, which is higher than the average for QBs playing on Saturday. Like Kiel, he has a below average price but has produced at an above average level. Hopefully this is a fun game to watch on Saturday morning (12:00 ET, ESPN).
And no write up would be complete without mentioning the quarterback facing SMU, Tim Boyle (Connecticut, $4,400). Boyle got his first start of the season last week against Memphis and completed 12 of 24 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown along with an interception. Obviously playing in his second game this week as opposed to his first might lead to better stats, and his matchup this week will certainly lend itself to a better performance. SMU ranks 121st in pass defense according to FO compared to Memphis being ranked 48th. He’ll need to hit about 17.5 points to keep you on pace to hit 200 points. SMU is allowing more than 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks without even taking into consideration QB rushing stats, so 17.5 seems entirely possible for Boyle.
Running Backs
High (Priced over $7,000)
The season’s top two running backs, Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin, $10,100) and Jay Ajayi (Boise State, $9,700), are both playing on Saturday. And to be clear, they’re the top backs on the season by a wide margin. Gordon has scored two more points than Ajayi (despite Ajayi having 50 more touches), and Gordon has 99.6 more fantasy points than the third highest scorer at the position this year. That gap means no other backs should be priced all that close to these two, but Devon Johnson is within $800 of Gordon and $400 of Ajayi.
Despite being the most expensive backs at the position, they’re priced close enough to the other options available on Saturday that they’re both underpriced. Once you factor in matchup, Ajayi appears to be very underpriced. He has a great matchup with Fresno State while Gordon has an average matchup against Ohio State. Ajayi gets more touches than Gordon because he’s much more involved in the passing game and that’s extremely helpful with DK’s PPR scoring. So give me Ajayi with the better matchup and the $400 I can save.
If you’re not aware, I determine a player’s value potential by comparing how far above or below average his performance is to date with how far above or below average his price is for players available at his position. If his performance is further above average than his price after adjusting for matchup, that makes for a good value. But that approach doesn’t always work when guys see their usage increase or decrease as the year goes on or if they miss games due to injury.
For example, that numbers based approach misses the fact that Samaje Perine (Oklahoma, $8,900) completely took over the Oklahoma backfield some time during their game against Texas Tech two games ago. My numbers say he’s somewhat overpriced this week, but the numbers just don’t take his last two games into account enough. His price is probably about right.
Medium (Priced between $5,500 and $7,000)
Remember all those stats mentioned above about how awful Iowa State’s run defense is? Well, Aaron Green (TCU, $6,300) is the man in the Horned Frogs backfield right now with B.J. Catalon still on the shelf. It would be no surprise at all if Green and Boykin both had big days in this matchup.
I also really like Dalvin Cook (Florida State, $5,800). The status of Karlos Williams is still up in the air, but my guess is that he doesn’t play. Even if he does play, Cook had taken over as the lead back prior to Williams’ concussion. That’s because Cook has just been more effective. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry this year compared to 4.4 for Williams. Cook hasn’t scored in the last two weeks, which is why his price is this low despite the recent increase in touches and yardage. But he has seven on the year, so it’s not like he’s not a scoring option. He’s got a good matchup with Georgia Tech so I expect him to find the end zone this week, and he’s a good bet for 100 yards.
Low (Priced under $5,500)
With both Winston and Cook making this write up on the Florida State side of the ball and another Seminole to be discussed later, it occurred to me a Georgia Tech player had to be worth playing if I’m so convinced that Tech beats FSU. That player is Zach Laskey (Georgia Tech, $4,900). Laskey missed three games in late October/early Novemner and returned against Clemson two games ago but was limited with just four carries. Tech had a bye after Clemson and last week coming off the bye Laskey had 26 carries for 140 yards and three scores. Synjyn Days, who led the backfield in Laskey’s absence, also had 16 touches last week. But this is a team that averages 55.8 carries per game compared to just 14.8 pass attempts. There’s enough carries to go around for everyone.
Finding another cheap option at running back this weekend is tough partly because no one else really grades out as a great value and partly because I like the mid-price options so much. But when in doubt just go with the guy facing SMU, and this week that is Ron Johnson (Connecticut, $4,400). The UCONN Freshman has led their backfield in carries the last three weeks. To be fair, he led the team with six and nine carries in two of those weeks. But last week he carried the ball 22 times. That’s notable because, as mentioned above, UCONN made a QB switch last week, and the new guy does not get out of the pocket. Their previous QB, Chandler Whitmer, did run a little, but it appears the running game will be solely up to the running backs now. And anyone getting a healthy amount of work against SMU is worth considering.
Wide Receivers
High (Priced above $6,000)
I’m loathe to do this, but I have to write up a third Florida State player, Rashad Greene (Florida State, $6,200). After writing up several Seminoles I had to reexamine whether I’m really that certain Georgia Tech beats FSU, but then I remembered that just because FSU players are priced too cheaply doesn’t mean they’re going to win a football game. This offense has only scored five touchdowns in the last two weeks combined and haven’t had a really big game since late October. That’s why their prices are so depressed. Greene has been a borderline top 30 receiver this year and shouldn’t be this cheap.
I’m not totally scared off by Amari Cooper (Alabama, $9,400) and his high price tag as his fantasy production this year is further above average than his price tag. But I am a little concerned about the matchup against Missouri who has a top 20 pass defense according to FO. Cooper is pretty matchup proof, but he has disappeared a time or two this year, and he really has to do a lot to justify his price. I think there’s a decent chance that he does, but if you’re making multiple lineups, I wouldn’t over-expose yourself to him.
Medium (Priced between $4,500 and $6,000)
The best matchup for any group of receivers outside the cheapest tier belongs to the Boise State receivers against Fresno State. I’m going with Shane Williams-Rhodes (Boise State, $5,000) over Thomas Sperbeck ($6,100) because Sperbeck is averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game in the seven games he has been active for this year, and Williams-Rhodes is averaging 14.75 fantasy points per game in that same time span. Sperbeck is definitely more the big play guy, but Williams-Rhodes is the safety valve and gets a lot more receptions, which is useful in a PPR format.
I also like a receiver on the other side of that game, Josh Harper (Fresno State, $5,000). Harper has been very consistent this year with at least 65 yards and at least five receptions in nine of 12 games. He also seven touchdowns on the year, which have all come in his last nine games. He only has one game with more than 100 yards, a 179 effort against UNLV, so his upside may be somewhat limited. But at this price point you don’t need a ton of upside. If he hits his averages of six receptions and 77 yards and finds the end zone, he’ll hit value. And his averages aren’t necessarily his ceiling.
If you want to pair Trevone Boykin with a receiver, Josh Doctson (TCU, $5,100) is who I’d pair him with. Doctoson finally produced in a big way on Thanksgiving against Texas after three disappointing games, but his price didn’t rocket back up. Don’t feel the need to pair Boykin with Doctson because the hope is that Boykin tears up an awful run defense on the ground. But if you like to stack, go with Doctson.
Low (Priced under $4,500)
Geremy Davis (Connecticut, $3,600) was injured in late October and returned two games ago and managed just one yard on two catches. But last week he got things back on track with five catches for 62 yards. I say back on track because prior to the injury he was averaging 15.68 fantasy points per game. If you’ll remember from above, Shane Williams-Rhodes is a good value play with a similar per game average, and he’s $1,400 more expensive. And if you’ll also remember, UCONN is facing SMU this week, so this is a great matchup for Davis. I absolutely love him at this price.
In the first four games with Greg Ward Jr. under center for Houston, Deontay Greenberry (Houston, $3,900) had two games with 20+ fantasy points. One of those games was a 12-catch, 136 yard performance against Tulane. In the two weeks since then, I’ve written Greenberry up twice and he has a combined 13.7 fantasy points in those two games. Awesome. But I’m going back to the well because I like his upside at this price, and, as mentioned, I like this game to be a bit of a shootout.
Speaking of that game, if I like it to be a shootout and I like Gunner Kiel, I ought to like a Cincinnati receiver. The problem is that Cincy really spreads it around through the air. They have eight guys with double digit receptions and five guys with at least 24.
Chris Moore (Cincinnati, $3,000) is the minimum price and leads the team in touchdown catches. But he failed to catch a pass last week and fumbled as a kick returner. And he was inactive the week prior, but I couldn’t confirm the reason for his absence via a Google search. But prior to those two weeks of inactivity, he caught four passes for 97 yards and a score against East Carolina. He also went for 221 yards and three scores against Ohio State earlier in the year and has two other games this season with at least five catches and at least 70 yards.
No other Cincinnati receiver has done much in the last two games in Moore’s absence, so I’m inclined to roll with the minimum price guy. Johnny Holton (Cincinnati, $3,400) has nine catches for 69 yards and a score in the last two, which is really more than anyone else has done, so I guess you could go with him as well. But I prefer Moore’s upside.
Tight End
God, I hate tight end. It’s such a worthless position in CFB. I try to spend as little money as possible on the position.
Blake Bell (Oklahoma, $2,500) is returning after a two week injury absence. In the last game before his absence he failed to record a catch against Baylor. But I was at that game and had him rostered, so I was astutely aware of him dropping a 30 yard pass and being overthrown while wide open in the end zone. And in the two games prior to the Baylor game, he caught three touchdown passes. He’s clearly someone they look for in the red zone. Although the offense may have morphed into the nothing-but-Perine show while Bell was injured. That said, I still think he has a decent shot to score. He’s also serving as the backup QB in this game with Trevor Knight out and Cody Thomas starting. It would be pretty sweet if you lucked into Bell getting some snaps at QB.
If you have money to spend (and I don’t know why you would), you can go with E.J. Bibbs (Iowa State, $3,600).