Thursday November 27, 2014

It’s Thanksgiving, the greatest holiday of the year. The holiday in which our entire goal is to eat and watch football. We kick off the day with the sputtering Bears heading to Detroit to take on a tough Lions team. That game is followed by another division rivalry when the Eagles and Cowboys face off for supremacy in the NFC East. The late game features two NFC heavyweights from the past few years. The Seahawks and 49ers will clash with a strong probability of the loser missing the playoffs. With all these games, it sounds like a great opportunity to get some football betting in. It might be worth trying to make some money this Thanksgiving! If gambling isn’t for you, we have a very good slate of games this Thanksgiving which will have a lot of fantasy impact. This is a huge day for many fantasy owners and gamblers.

Chicago Bears: Key Players
QB Jay Cutler
Cutler has been a major disappointment this season to many that expected him to be an elite or at least very good QB1. That is of course foolish to think if you have watched him for the past decade but many fell in love with his weapons and not the QB. He is a turnover machine and occasional no show. This week he takes on one of the best defenses in the league and perhaps the most dominant front line in the NFL. Things aren’t looking great for Cutler.
Verdict: Sit Cutler. He’s not great with a good matchup so you certainly can’t trust him in Detroit.

RB Matt Forte
Forte has been great all year but this matchup would lead you to believe that he could have a down game. However, that is not the case. With the Lions’ defensive line getting heavy pressure on Cutler he will be throwing a ton of dump off passes to Forte. He may not rush for a whole lot but should have a very nice day through the air. He has been the bright spot all year, even in dark times for the Bears.
Verdict: Start Forte. You’re starting him every week but there is no need to temper expectations. Especially in PPR leagues.

WR Brandon Marshall
Marshall has been a boom-or-bust guy this year, which is very unlike him. He is usually a safe bet for over 100 receptions. He only has 52 heading in to Week 13. With this game being a must win for many, playing Marshall against the Lions is very nerve racking.
Verdict: Start Marshall. I am actually starting him very tentatively this week over Jordan Matthews and Mike Wallace. So everyone struggling with Marshall, I feel your pain.

WR Alshon Jeffery
Much like Marshall, Jeffery has been up and down this season as well. The problem appears to be with the QB. While his downs have not been as drastic as Marshalls neither has his ups. This offense may be the most frustrating in the league.
Verdict: Start Jeffery. Not consistent enough to trust, too good to bench. Good luck.

TE Marcellus Bennett
Same story as the others. Great at times but inconsistent. Odds are if you have him, you’re rolling with him though. It’s doubtful you have a better option.
Verdict: Start Bennett. Like I said, if you got him, you almost have to start him.

Detroit Lions: Key Players
QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford has been a major disappointment this season and has been particularly bad as of late. In fairness to him he has been missing many of his key targets this season and since Megatron has returned the matchups have been nightmarish for the Lions. This will be the first he has had a good matchup and at least close to his full arsenal since very early in the season.
Verdict: Start Stafford. If he can’t do it this week, it may be time to bench him until next season.

RB Joique Bell
Reggie Bush‘s availability no longer has a major impact on Bell. He is the clear RB1 in Detroit while the others handle the passing downs. He’s not a huge upside guy but is a solid option.
Verdict: Start Bell. He’s a solid option and is very capable of punching in a TD as well.

RB Theo Riddick
Riddick has become what Bush was expected to be. However, if Bush is active, they kind of cannibalize each other. If Bush is out, Riddick is a nice PPR option. If he’s not, not so much.
Verdict: Start Riddick. This only applies if Bush is inactive.

WR Calvin Johnson
Megatron is back at full speed and should be started in every league despite a few down games against tough matchups. He should eat the Bears’ defense up on Thanksgiving. He is still the most physically gifted WR this league has ever seen and should be treated as so.
Verdict: Start Johnson. He is a must start every week. Do not be discouraged or try to get cute.

WR Golden Tate
Tate has really been great this season. He has seen a slight dip in production when Johnson is in the lineup but has still been very good. If you need a win it will be very difficult to bench Tate in a pivotal game.
Verdict: Start Tate. He’s gotten you this far, he’s earner your trust.

Predictions

Final Sore
Chicago: 17
Detroit: 34

Best Play
Bears: Matt Forte
Lions: Calvin Johnson

Sleeper
Eric Ebron

Philadelphia Eagles: Key Players
QB Mark Sanchez
Turns out Sanchez is not second coming like many bandwagoners predicted after a nice performance replacing an injured Nick Foles. He’s the same subpar butt-fumbler that was ran out New York.
Verdict: Sit Sanchez. He’s just not very good.

RB LeSean McCoy
McCoy looks to be getting better while the Dallas interior defense is getting worse after losing Justin Durant. Shady continues to see touches and if he keeps running like he did last week, fantasy owners will be very pleased. Darren Sproles continues to hurt his PPR value.
Verdict: Start McCoy. You most likely drafted him no later than third overall and he’s starting to play better. If you’ve stuck with him this long there’s no turning back now.

RB Darren Sproles
Sproles is a high-risk, high-reward guy and has almost no value in non-PPR leagues. Still, once in a while he shows up and looks unbelievable.
Verdict: Sit Sproles. He’s just not consistent enough. It’s preferable that your RB sees as many touches as possible.

WR Jeremy Maclin
Maclin has not been nearly as good with Sanchez as he was with Foles. Nonetheless, he’s still a solid option. If you have Maclin, he’s still a must start. My preseason comeback player of the year has been just that.
Verdict: Start Maclin. He has been great all season, even with Sanchez he’s been solid.

WR Jordan Matthews
The highly touted rookie has really emerged since Sanchez has taken over. He has been excellent. He has caught 18 passes for 322 yards and three TDs in the past three games. Look for Matthews to keep his hot-streak going in Dallas. They are solid against the pass but not dominant by a longshot.
Verdict: Start Matthews. The rookie has been great down the stretch. Stick with the hot hand.

Dallas Cowboys: Key Players
QB Tony Romo
Romo has been a monster on Thanksgiving. Absolutely sensational. This Thanksgiving he faces an Eagles’ team that has allowed at least two TDs in all but one game this season. Look for Romo to have huge day on Thursday.
Verdict: Start Romo. For whatever reason he’s great on Thanksgiving. Maybe it’s for the same reason he’s awful around Christmas?

RB Demarco Murray
Murray has been great all season. He’s an elite RB1 and if you have him you should be deploying him as such.
Verdict: Start Murray. Of course you’re starting him.

WR Dez Bryant
Bryant is red-hot. He has six TDs in the past four games. He has had some down games but overall has been what he was expected to be. If you have Bryant he can confidently be utilized as a WR1. He should have his way with the Eagles secondary.
Verdict: Start Bryant. There is no possible reason to sit him. Unless of course you’re a crazy person.

WR Terrance Williams
Williams has been bad of late and now is injured. He is expected to play but not a sure thing. The issue is with Murray getting around 25 carries and Bryant being the WR1, there just isn’t enough targets to make two WRs fantasy relevant. If he doesn’t score a TD he’s pretty much useless.
Verdict: Sit Williams. He just doesn’t see enough targets. He cannot be trusted.

TE Jason Witten
Witten is a shell of his former self but once in a while still puts out a nice stat line. He can’t be relied on for consistent production, nevertheless, he is still at times Romo’s security blanket.
Verdict: Sit Witten. There are probably better options. If you have to play him he’s not a terrible option though.

Predictions

Final Sore
Philadelphia: 34
Dallas: 42

Best Play
Eagles: LeSean McCoy
Cowboys: Tony Romo

Sleeper
Terrance Williams

Seattle Seahawks: Key Players
QB Russell Wilson
Wilson looks great at times and other times not so much. Nonetheless, his multifaceted attack gives him huge upside. He may be the smartest runner in the league and is also an excellent passer. How he’s not more consistent is a bit puzzling. It’s most likely due to his mediocre WR corps.
Verdict: Start Wilson. No matter what way you twist it, he’s a top 12 QB.

RB Marshawn Lynch
Beast Mode is an absolute monster. He runs with such fury that when he’s on, he is unstoppable. The 49ers defense is not what it used to be without Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis. He is said to be good to go Thursday. Unless something changes, prepare for Beast Mode.
Verdict: Start Lynch. He’s just too good and too powerful to bench. The Seahawks rely on him so heavily.

WR Doug Baldwin
Baldwin is the best WR in a bad WR corps. Nothing more, nothing less. He is a desperation flex. He probably won’t kill you, but I doubt you’ll head in to the weekend feeling like you can’t be beat either.
Verdict: Sit Baldwin. Play him only if absolutely necessary.

TE Tony Moeaki
Moeaki has always been intriguing but couldn’t stay on the field. He is a player to watch very closely. Maybe even stash if you have deep rosters and carry a backup TE. He is an interesting sleeper.
Verdict: Sit Moeaki. It’s tough to start him but he’s definitely worth monitoring. If he starts producing, he may help you win in the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers: Key Players
QB Colin Kaepernick
No matter how great the matchup is, Kaep continues to disappoint. He looked like the next great fantasy star after leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl. We’re still waiting on that.
Verdict: Sit Kaepernick. He can’t be trusted against bad defenses. Do you really want to start him against The Legion of Boom?

RB Frank Gore
The last time Gore rushed for 100 yards was on October 5 and he has only three TDs this season. He sees the touches but is very risky. With the matchup against a dominant Seahawks rush defense makes him too risky.
Verdict: Sit Gore. The Seahawks should shut him down. He’s a matchup based start at this stage of his career. He also tends to fade as the season goes on. He did last year as well.

WR Michael Crabtree
Ever since Richard Sherman declared him mediocre, Crabtree has been just that. Aside from his numbers being subpar this season, Crabtree has never scored a TD in a game that a faced Sherman.
Verdict: Sit Crabtree. He’s more likely to have an awful game than a great game.

TE Vernon Davis
Davis is just an empty name at this point. He has had a disastrous season. He probably shouldn’t even be started in two TE leagues with a double flex.
Verdict: Sit Davis. He has been a nightmare this year.

Predictions

Final Sore
Seattle: 21
San Francisco: 20

Best Play
Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch
49ers: Colin Kaepernick

Sleeper
Tony Moeaki