Below are the guys I like or dislike in Week 4 compared to the other experts on FantasyPros.com. I’m focusing on guys that are actually on that start/sit bubble in 12-team leagues. For quarterbacks and tight ends, that means I’m focusing on guys I have on one side of 12th at the position while the consensus is on the other side. For running backs and receivers that means guys I have on one side of 24th at the position while the consensus is on the other side. For example, there’s no need to tell you I’m higher on Philip Rivers when I have him ranked #2 and the expert consensus rank (ECR) has him ranked #6. Both rankings have him in the top 12 and tell you to start him.

If you have specific start/sit questions, leave them in the comments or hit me up on Twitter @TheRealTAL.

Start ‘Em

Tom Brady / at Kansas City / ECR: 14 / My rank: 12

If not now, when? Of course that was sort of the same argument for starting Brady last week against the Raiders, but Kansas City’s pass defense appears to be brutal. Football Outsiders has the KC defense ranked 28th in their blend of year-to-date performance and preseason projections (which they call DAVE), and they have them rated worse against the pass than the run. KC is the fourth best matchup for quarterbacks according to 4for4.com’s schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed metric (aFPA). So yeah, this is a good matchup. And according to the two metrics just cited, the Oakland matchup wasn’t quite as good as we assumed it was. To be fair, I have Brady ranked 12th, so you could absolutely own Brady and someone I have ranked higher. Kirk Cousins or Jay Cutler, perhaps. But if you drafted Brady as your only QB, you’re sticking with him and saving the streaming strategy for one more week.

Steven Jackson / at Minnesota / ECR: 25 / My rank: 13

Look, Jackson clearly isn’t a great back anymore. He might not even be good. But he is going to get 12-15 touches and goal line work if there is any. In a week with six teams on bye, that’s definitely start worthy unless it’s a nightmare matchup, and Minnesota is an average matchup for a running back. That makes Jackson startable over a lot of the running backs involved in committees like Pierre Thomas/Khiry Robinson, Shane Vereen/Stevan Ridley or Chris Ivory/Chris Johnson. Normally I’d have the pair of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush ranked ahead of him, but they have a nightmare matchup with the Jets. Jackson isn’t a great option ever, but he’s not a bad one this week.

Sammy Watkins / at Houston / ECR: 27 / My rank: 17

Part of me wants to classify Watkins as a boom-or-bust deep threat player a la Torrey Smith or DeSean Jackson, but Watkins’ early inconsistency may be a product of his quarterback’s play. Or it may be both. On the one hand, over 50 percent of Watkins’ targets so far have been deep targets. That’s a staggeringly high number and pushes him toward the inconsistent Torrey/DJax deep threat category. But then he’s also seeing a very high percentage of his team’s targets. His 26.4 percent of his team’s targets is the 10th highest percentage in the league. That puts him in the same range as Pierre Garcon, Steve Smith and Antonio Brown, and those guys aren’t deep threats. EJ Manuel should be able to get Watkins more production with that type of volume.

It’s very rare to see this combination of high volume and a lot of deep targets. I have a feeling that combo may result in good things this week against Houston who isn’t the worst at defending wide receivers, but they are below average.

DeAndre Hopkins / vs. Buffalo / ECR: 26 / My rank: 21

If I really think Watkins and Hopkins are good starts in this game, I should probably bet the over as Vegas has this game with the lowest line of the week at 40.5. Maybe that’s a bad sign for these calls.

Regardless, I like Hopkins. Andre Johnson may be getting more targets, but Hopkins is seeing plenty. Johnson is second in the league in terms of percentage of team targets, but Hopkins isn’t far behind in 14th. It makes sense that these two would dominate the passing offense that lost Owen Daniels and the TE-loving Gary Kubiak. As a result, there is room for both of these guys to be worth starting in a given week, especially with so many teams on bye. Hopkins has 100 yards or a touchdown in each game this year, and that could continue against the Bills who have allowed at least 150 yards and one score to receivers in each game this year.

Owen Daniels / vs. Carolina / ECR: 15 / My rank: 10

Speaking of Daniels and Kubiak, they have rejoined forces in Baltimore this season. And with Dennis Pitta now out for the season, Daniels will once again be the main tight end in a Kubiak offense. Other experts are probably a little lower on Daniels in part because of the matchup with Carolina. I do think the Carolina D is better than what they showed against Pittsburgh, but they have allowed at least 50 yards to tight ends in each of the first three weeks, and the best tight end they have faced is probably Heath Miller. I’m comfortable saying Daniels is on par with Miller and probably a better tight end option in his current situation. Daniels is owned in less than 10 percent of ESPN.com leagues, so he’s your streaming tight end this week if you use that strategy.

Sit ‘Em

Reggie Bush / at New York Jets / ECR: 20 / My rank: 26

I mentioned above the nightmare mathcup that the Jets are for running backs, but let me explain that a little further. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Jets have allowed the fewest yards per rushing attempt in the league allowing just 3.29 yards per attempt. Just so you don’t think a stellar 2013 is covering up a weak start to this season, they’re allowing just 2.84 yards per rushing attempt this season. This mathcup really couldn’t be much worse, and Bush has to share the tough carries with Bell.

Victor Cruz / at Washington / ECR: 16 / My rank: 26
Marques Colston / at Dallas / ECR: 24 / My rank: 35

Both Cruz and Colston found the end zone last week, and Cruz had some yardage to go along with his score. But let’s examine what these two have done recently. Cruz’s Week 3 performance was the first time he has scored a touchdown since Week 4 of 2013 and only the second time he has recorded 100 yards since then. He’s averaging just 5.9 fantasy points per game in the 13 games since Week 4 of 2013. I don’t know how you can trust a guy like that. As for Coslton, he has only been the 29th best fantasy receiver since the start of the 2013 season. He has just seven receptions on 13 targets this season. He’s clearly behind Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks in the passing game, and Pierre Thomas ans Khiry Robinson are better fantasy options as well. The Saints are a great offense with a great matchup against Dallas this week, but you can’t count on their fifth option to produce.

Zach Ertz / at San Francisco / ECR: 7 / My rank: 15

Somewhat like Colston, Ertz is about the fifth option on his team. Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy are clearly the top options in the Philadelphia offense. Darren Sproles has established himself as a viable option. And Jordan Matthews‘ two touchdowns last week may mean he’s a better fantasy option than Ertz. According to Mike Clay of ProFootballFocus.com, Matthews has a great matchup this week.

Jordan Matthews has a dream matchup vs. Jimmie Ward this week. Worth WR3 consideration. Maclin will see him a few times, too.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 24, 2014

With all those other options, it’s just so hard to count on Ertz producing. That’s especially true given that the 49ers are sixth best against the tight end and worst in the league against wide receivers according to 4for4.com. The matchup may dictate that Maclin and Matthews have the big game this week, not Ertz.