2014 Fantasy Football: Week 8 AFC Target Report
If you happened to miss the NFC version, check it out right here. For those unfamiliar with the format, five players will be examined based on their usage in the passing game and an attempt to describe what it means from a fantasy standpoint is the goal in the end. The first number in parentheses is the number of targets followed by the percentage of targets caught. Additionally, the targets for said player will be listed to the right on a week-by-week basis. Time to get the Week 8 NFC Targets Report started.
Brandon LaFell – (50 targets/60 percent targets caught) 6-0-8-10-4-6-5-11
While I was extremely skeptical that LaFell’s early big outings in Week 4 and Week 6 were anything more than a fluke, I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong. LaFell had a career game on Sunday as he toasted the Chicago Bears secondary to the tune of 11 receptions for 124 yards and a score. He led all Patriots wideouts in snaps while also seeing a season-high 11 targets. While Rob Gronkowski will dominate the targets on a weekly basis, it’s comforting to know this offense can support more than Gronk and Julian Edelman in the passing attack. The 27-year-old LSU product is likely to continue to have his pains with consistency, but he can certainly provide WR3/WR4 numbers from here on out. LaFell is on pace for a 60-922-8 line, all of which would be career-high totals. It will be tough to sit him against the Broncos this weekend but it’s a tough matchup so if you do make sure to temper expectations.
Justin Hunter – (48/41.7 percent) 8-6-7-5-5-5-2-10
Hunter had a solid showing in Week 8 as he posted a 4-31-1 line on a season-high 10 targets with rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger at the helm for the Tennessee Titans, but the unbridled level of optimism concerning his pending breakout game has now reached a mass hysteria. For starters, Hunter has two touchdowns on the year and has only cleared the 10-point threshold in PPR formats once, while also failing to surpass 20 points in a game this season. For a wideout who has caught more than three balls once and only surpassed the 50-yard mark three times the seemingly endless proclamations for him to be a weekly fantasy force seem to be a bit unfounded. How much gumption does it take to repeatedly call for his breakout game?
If you haven’t noticed, I’m not buying into the Hunter hype train right. He is extremely talented but is obviously a better value in keeper formats than re-draft for the time being. Don’t get me wrong, it is encouraging that he was the focal point of offense with Mettenberger under center and Mettenberger’s rocket arm suits Hunter’s strength as a downfield threat. The problem to this point has been his lack of targets as he is only averaging six targets a game and when you combine that with his general ineffectiveness in securing his targets (41.7 percent caught), it’s easy to see why he hasn’t lived up to expectations yet. Hunter shouldn’t be treated as anything more than a low-end WR3 with upside for more until he proves otherwise. While his ceiling is undeniably high, owners must realize his floor is lower than most realize. The Titans are on bye in Week 9.
Allen Robinson – (63/61.9 percent) 3-6-10-7-11-9-7-11
Make no doubt about it, Robinson is the wideout to own in Jacksonville and it’s not even remotely close. On Sunday, the 21-year-old rookie out of Penn State posted a 5-82-1 line, marking his second straight game with a score. Robinson has leapfrogged both Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee on the depth chart and he leads the Jaguars wideouts in snaps over the last three weeks. Additionally, Robinson’s 11 targets matched a season-high and over the last six weeks is averaging 9.2 targets a game, more than enough to make a sizable fantasy impact. Rather surprisingly, his 63 targets are good enough for 17th-most in the NFL.
While Robinson may not possess the upside of other wideouts in the WR3/WR4 range, he’s been plenty consistent lately. Like most Jaguars players the last few years, Robinson has been buttering his bread during garbage time but fantasy owners could care less whether the statistics come in the form of a blowout or a tightly contested game. At the end of the day, it’s just a matter of how many points said players accumulates, no matter how he does it. Halfway through the season, Robinson is on a 78-906-4 pace and while he may not reach the catches, he’s certainly within striking range of posting a 1,000 yard season and more than four touchdowns wouldn’t be surprising either. Treat Robinson as a mid-range WR3 in Week 9 as the Jaguars face off against the Bengals.
Eric Decker – (52/60.8 percent) 6-7-1-10-DNP-10-7-11
As we enter Week 9, Decker has been one of the most frustrating wide receivers to own through the seasons halfway point considering what was expected out of him pre-draft. Whether it be the constant worry of him aggravating his hamstring injury or his lackluster prodcution, a combination of both has contributed to his uneven season. Even with the acquisition of Percy Harvin freeing up some looks for him as he saw a season-high 11 targets, Decker only managed to catch seven passes for 40 yards. While no one was expecting Decker to match his 87-1,288-11 totals from a season ago, his current 66-778-6 pace leaves a lot to be desired. His 51.9 yards per game and average reception of 11.7 yards pale in comparison to his rates from a season ago and he has yet to record a 100-yard game.
Logic would suggest the insertion of Michael Vick over Geno Smith as the Jets quarterback would bode well for Decker’s fantasy value, but it’s not that cut and dry considering how turnover-prone both of the aforementioned quarterbacks have been so far. While Decker will likely be matchup up with lesser cornerbacks due to the presence of the electrifying Harvin, he will likely continue to struggle with consistency. Until something changes, Decker is best left served as a WR3 as the possibility of him providing WR2 value from here on out is a figment of your imagination. Decker faces the Chiefs in Week 9.
Julian Edelman – (69/65.2 percent) 8-7-13-8-8-12-9-4
With Rob Gronkowski returning to his vintage self and the emergence of Brandon LaFell over the last few weeks, Edelman has taken a backseat in the aerial attack. Since Week 4, Edelman is only averaging 4.6 catches and 41.4 yards per game and has failed to score over that stretch. The 28-year-old Kent State alum has only cleared the 10 point threshold once in the last five weeks in PPR formats and it doesn’t help that he has zero 100-yard performances after posting four such games in 2013. While he is still averaging 8.2 targets over his last five games and 8.6 targets for the year, it just hasn’t translated into major fantasy production as he comes in as the WR20 in PPR formats.
The Patriots increased usage in the vertical passing game rather than the quick-hitting scheme they employed with a hobbled Gronk early in the season has likely contributed to Edelman’s demise lately and while it’s unlikely he’ll continue to be this poor ROS, I wouldn’t exactly be thrilled about buying Edelman stocks. On the flip side, Edelman is still on a 90-934-2 pace and the standard disclaimer applies in the sense that he is a much better PPR value compared to standard formats. In PPR, he can still be viewed as a low-end WR2 while he should be treated as a low-end WR3 in standard leagues. If there were a week for him to bounce-back, the Week 9 matchup against the Denver Broncos would be a good opportunity as it should be a high-scoring affair.
Thanks for reading and be sure to comment below with any questions or remarks concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy.