2014 Fantasy Football: Week 8 Start/Sit
I’m pinch-hitting for Brett this week, and taking you through my Start/Sit suggestions for week 8. This is a seamless fit for me, since this very topic is the premise of The Football Fix podcast that I do each week. The goal is to give you players that aren’t locks to start; they fall outside of what I like to call the ‘set it and forget it’ group. As always, we’ll use FantasyPros.com as a point of reference here to show you the guys I like or dislike in Week 8 compared to the other experts there. I’m focusing on guys that are actually on that start/sit bubble in 12-team leagues. For example, there’s no need to tell you I’m higher on Vincent Jackson when I have him ranked #11 and the expert consensus rank (ECR) has him ranked #17. Both rankings have him in the top 24 and tell you to start him.
If you have specific start/sit questions, leave them in the comments or find me on twitter, @RyNoonan.
Start ‘Em
Carson Palmer vs. PHI/ECR 13/My Rank 11
The place where my Quarterback ranks deviate most from the ECR this week is in the back half, around 20th overall. I like both Derek Carr and Kyle Orton if you need a deep stream option at the position, but the guy that fits the model here is Carson Palmer. The Cardinals are a different offense when he’s in the lineup, pushing the ball down the field early and often. He faces the Eagles on Sunday, and while their front is fierce, they’re susceptible through the air. Their pass defense ranks 18th in the league according to Football Outsiders DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). This is the defense that had many pundits enshrining Kirk Cousins in Canton after their week 3 contest. Start Palmer with confidence.
Mark Ingram vs. GB/ECR 24/ My Rank 17
I’m cutting it close with Ingram but feel like he’s worth talking about. Green Bay can be had on the ground, as their run DVOA rank of 22 suggests. Despite the plethora of options in New Orleans, Ingram was taking a strong hold of the lead back position early in the season prior to his wrist injury during the Cleveland game in Week 3. He came back last week with a less than ideal matchup against the Lions top-ranked run defense yet still looked the part of starter, taking the first 6 snaps in the backfield before Khiry Robinson saw the field. A key fumble by Robinson against Detroit, and the shoulder injury sustained by Pierre Thomas in the same game, makes Ingram quite interesting both this week and beyond.
Others worth mentioning: Denard Robinson (ECR 27/My Rank 22) and Bishop Sankey (ECR29/My Rank 24)
James Jones @ CLE/ECR 40/ My Rank 26
I love me some James Jones this week. Here’s me quoting me, taken from the Daily Fix Wide Receiver preview for week 8:
The Raiders remain the pass-heaviest team in the league at 66% with Jones being the most targeted and established weapon on the team. I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the play of young Derek Carr, and he’s likely to take advantage of the Browns inability to cover their opponents’ top option. They’re in the bottom three of DVOA against WR1’s this season. Since his quiet start (3 target/1 touchdown performance in Week 1), Jones has been targeted an average of eight times per contest over the past five outings.
Start Jones with confidence this week.
Others worth mentioning: Mohamed Sanu (ECR 29/My Rank 24) and Keenan Allen (ECR 31/My Rank 23)
Sit ‘Em
Doug Martin vs. MIN/ECR 25/My Rank 31
I’ll probably move him down even further. I just don’t think this is a special player, and I think sooner than later we’ll see that the Buccaneers coaching staff agrees with me. I can’t think of another player in recent memory that’s earned more trust from the fantasy community with so few ‘stud’ performances under his belt. Doug Martin DOMINATED the Raiders one Sunday afternoon during his rookie season, and has since devastated the fantasy hopes and dreams of anyone that’s owned him. He’s been replacement level at best and despite a cozy matchup at home against a fair soft Vikings run defense, keep Martin on your bench unless you’re desperate for a warm body at running back. Deep leagues, stash Charles Sims.
Terrance Williams vs. WAS/ECR 25/My Rank 38
This is very different than Doug Martin, because I like the player here a lot. I just don’t like the usage. He’s hard to bench right now, especially in standard leagues, because he has 6 touchdowns on the season. He’s just targeted so infrequently, he’s hard to trust. He has just 5 catches over the past 3 weeks, but that’s masked by the fact that he continues to get in the end zone. Dallas is starting to throw the ball a bit more of late, they aren’t quite as run-heavy as they were in September. Still, I can’t trust that Williams will continue to convert his limited opportunities into touchdowns at this rate moving forward, and neither should you. In PPR leagues especially, leave Williams on the pine this week.
Travis Kelce vs. STL/ECR 10/My Rank 13
Here’s where I WANT to be wrong. I wanted to see Kansas City come off of their bye and do something different with Kelce moving forward. Sadly, that’s not what happened last week. Kelce was once again under-utilized, barely showing up until the final drive. He played just 53.3% of the snaps last week, and ran a minuscule 22 routes. It’s great that he leads all qualifying TE’s in yards-per-route-run (2.79), but he’s last in routes (just 110). Ugh. That’s just dumb. We finally saw what he can do against the Patriots a few weeks ago on Monday night, but for some reason he’s coach continues to keep ‘Baby Gronk’ under wraps. I’m sitting him.