2015 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been a punching bag in the NFL for the past four years now, although, it feels like a lot longer. However, the Jags have a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Their offense is littered with young talent and their defense has been quietly putting together a nice young corps of players. Jacksonville may still be a few years away from being any kind of threat to make the playoffs, nevertheless, they are certainly making progress and heading in the right direction. A lot will depend on the development of their young quarterback.
Quarterback
During his rookie campaign last season, Blake Bortles didn’t exactly blow the door off the hinges of the NFL. In 14 games he threw for only 2,908 yards and 11 touchdowns. His poor production was only exacerbated by his 17 interceptions. The interception total isn’t awful but the TD-to-INT ratio is. Nonetheless, Bortles was expected to be a project and will take time to develop. He certainly has the young weapons to grow with. His rookie numbers are actually pretty comparable to budding star Ryan Tannehill’s rookie statistics. Both QBs were considered first-round projects drafted to teams with a terrible offense. I’m not saying Bortles will be great, however, there is clearly room for growth and improvement.
Running Backs
Second-round pick T.J. Yeldon has already been named the starter and is being touted as a three-down back. Look for him to be given every opportunity to succeed this season. He’s the overwhelming favorite to see the bulk of the carries. Denard Robinson was a nice shot in the arm last season, but at 6’0 and only 197 pounds, he can’t hold up to the pounding between the tackles. Shoelace may have decent PPR value, but that’s about it. Toby Gerhart has reportedly looked good in camp and will be the primary backup for the workhorse carries. He may be a plodder, still, he can eat up carries and get some tough yards. Bernard Pierce and Storm Johnson will battle for a roster spot. Head coach Gus Bradley has been very critical of second-year back Johnson, and he could find himself unemployed prior to the start of the season.
Wide Receivers
The Jags have a talented young offense and second-year wideout Allen Robinson is the centerpiece. He has the potential to be a breakout player of the year candidate. After thorough scouting, I ranked Robinson fifth in his rookie class behind only Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks (in that order). I’m still very confident in my projections. Robinson has an ADP of 57.11, making him a mid-range WR3. This is fair value and his upside is tremendous.
Former Miami Hurricane Allen Hurns is expected to beat out Marqise Lee for the WR2 job. Hurns was the team’s top receiver last year as an undrafted rookie. He caught 51 passes for 667 yards and six TDs. Robinson would have been the top receiver if not for a season ending foot injury. In 10 games Robinson posted a stat line of 48-548-2.
Marqise Lee may find himself in no-man’s land as the WR4. I expected him to be a bust and it’s beginning to look that way. It’s still way too early to make that determination, though. I expect Rashad Greene to win the slot job. He’s is proven champion that has shined in the biggest moments at Florida State. Greene is a well-polished slot receiver and is NFL ready right now. He was an absolute steal in the fifth round of this year’s draft.
Tight End
Julius Thomas has bust written all over him. He is currently being drafted as the No. 4 TE, and there is no way he finishes anywhere close to that. He is going from a Peyton Manning-run offense where tight ends always thrive to Jacksonville, which is a work in progress to say the least. Thomas has been extremely injury prone throughout his career. In four seasons he’s missed 32 games, which just so happens to be the same amount of games he’s managed to suit up for. Coming off yet another injury plagued season, it does not appear that his durability is on the verge of improving.
For all the love Thomas gets as an elite tight end, he has never caught more than 65 passes or hit the 800-yard mark. The majority of his fantasy value came from catching touchdowns from Manning; he caught 12 TDs in each of the last two seasons. Last season his new starting quarterback only threw 11 total touchdowns total. Do not make the mistake of drafting Thomas this season. If he does in fact get injured, Clay Harbor is expected to step up as the primary pass-catching TE. He could be a decent add of the waiver wire. Marcedes Lewis recently took a pay cut and is expected to be relegated to blocking duties.
Defense
The Jags have some talent on all three levels of the defense, they just need to put it all together. Losing first-round pick Dante Fowler for the season about an hour into rookie mini-camp was a brutal blow. Still, the addition of Jared Odrick was big. Chris Clemons is also featured on their defensive line, which managed 45 sacks last season. They have some talented linebackers led by Paul Pozluszny, who is tackling machine when healthy. Jonathan Cyprien is also a young safety on the rise. He’s been a bit inconsistent but has a ton of talent. The defense isn’t going to be in the upper-half of the league, nevertheless, it should be improved.
Player to Watch
This is an easy choice. Robinson is clearly the player to watch on this team. He’s a sure-handed star in the making. Couple that with his superior route running and favorable size and no Jaguar has more promise than Robinson. If you want a more low-key guy, Greene has a ton of talent and has been way too overlooked for way too long.
Key Stat
The Jaguars offensive line has been absolutely atrocious. They allowed 71 sacks last season. This may be a major reason why they can’t score any points. Over the past two season combined, the Jags have only scored 496 points. To put that in perspective, last season alone the Packers scored 486 points. Both these stats must change drastically for the team to have any success.