Quarterback

The 49ers may have changed head coaches this offseason, but new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst was the team’s quarterbacks coach for four years so Colin Kaepernick shouldn’t go under much of a transition this summer. I think it’s telling that San Francisco departed from Jim Harbaugh and Michael Crabtree and kept Kaepernick around. The dude, while inconsistent, is very talented, and if he can put it all together he could be a very good quarterback.

There are some positive signs for Kaep in the new offense. The addition of Torrey Smith should open things up for what was a dull offense; Kaepernick, according to Pro Football Focus, had the fourth-highest average depth of target (9.5) last year among quarterbacks who started at least 10 games. He had seven games with at least 37 rushing yards, and while he only scored once on the ground I think that number goes up this year – quarterback rushing scores don’t correlate well year-to-year. Kaepernick shouldn’t be drafted as a standalone starter, but if you’re going the platoon or streaming role he’s a very good bet.

Running Back

Using FantasyPros average draft position Carlos Hyde is currently going 17th among running backs and 37th overall, while Reggie Bush is going 44th and 120th. Both players offer differing skill sets. Hyde is a between-the-tackles, two-down runner who will be the goal-line back but won’t see much action in the passing game. He only had one carry of more than 15 years last season, but he did finish fifth in yards after contact per attempt at 2.8, according to PFF. He also missed 25 tackles on only 83 carries, according to PFF, which was extremely similar to Marshawn Lynch‘s 88 missed tackles on 280 carries.

Bush missed five games last year due to injury and had his worst year production-wise in a long time. I think as long as Bush is healthy he should be able to come close to the near-1,300-total yard mark he averaged from 2011 to 2013. I think he’ll see more rushing work than expected, and he should catch over 50 passes this year. I don’t like how much you have to pay for Hyde, so I wouldn’t overpay for him based on where he’s going now. But Bush offers a great value at his current price.

Wide Receiver

Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin have ADPs of 42/107 and 44/115, respectively. I think both offer good value at their current prices. Smith gets labeled with the “inconsistent” tag – and it’s true – but in his four seasons he’s had at least seven touchdowns or over 1,100 receiving yards. In 10 of 16 games last year he had at least 50 yards and/or a touchdown; that number was 13 in 2013. So while he is going to a new offense, it shouldn’t be too much of a change. Boldin plays the Steve Smith role, and Kaepernick has a strong arm just like Joe Flacco. Yes, you’ll have a couple of clunkers, but he should be able to be a good WR3/flex for you, and it won’t cost you much at all.

Boldin has been labeled with the “consistent” tag, and it’s also true. According to various sources Boldin has been a top-24 receiver in each San Francisco season, and his numbers have remained remarkably similar going back several years. He’s more valuable in PPR leagues as a lack of touchdowns hurt him, but he should again be a value at his current price. I’d recommend Smith if your top two wide receivers are consistent early-round studs, but Boldin if you go with higher upside/more injury risk with your top receivers.

Tight End

Vernon Davis had the worst season of his career last year, and it wasn’t even close. He caught two touchdowns, and both came in the season’s first game. There’s really no point going over how poor a season he had, and I can’t recommend drafting him because there are so many other high-upside AND proven tight ends out there who should continue top-flight production. If your upside pick falters in the first couple games and Davis has some success then is possibly the right time to pick him up.

Defense

The 49ers finished in the middle-of-the-pack in sacks last year, collecting 36 and ranking 21st. Their 23 interceptions led the league, but it’s very difficult to replicate a high interception total year-after-year. They lost Patrick Willis and Chris Borland to retirement, but they do still have some playmakers. What concerns me though is the schedule. In their first 11 games they only have one game – against St. Louis in Week 8 – that I consider a good matchup. Some of their other matchups in that span include Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Green Bay, the Giants, Seattle and Atlanta. They could become a good streaming defense, but I recommend leaving the Niners undrafted.

Player to Watch

Many smart people believe the 49ers won’t be very good this season. With the departure of several key players and their head coach combined with their tough division it’s possible the Niners could only post a handful of wins. If their defense does suffer and they fall behind early in a lot of games Reggie Bush will be the main beneficiary. Bush should see most of the third-down work, and he is more of a proven rusher than Hyde is. He should be able to post well over 1,000 total yards with most of it coming through the air. So in PPR leagues he’s well undervalued at his current price, and he could see more action depending on if Hyde starts slowly.

Key Stat

According to PFF, 9.5 is Kaepernick’s worst average depth of target over his three seasons as a starter. That’s a good thing. In 2012 it was 10, which ranked sixth. In 2013 it was 10.1, which tied him for the top mark in the NFL. The Niners have lacked a receiver who could take the top off the defense, and they added him in Smith this offseason. Kaep may not be the most accurate quarterback, but he does easily possess the ability to throw very far. We know Smith can go get ’em, and Kaepernick should be able to take advantage of his new target.