2015 Fantasy Football: Week 11 Gold Mine
Just when we thought the injuries had come to an end, Julian Edelman makes a catch, turns up field to make a play and suffers a Jones Fracture in his foot. The same exact injury Dez Bryant suffered earlier in the season.
Of course, we wish Edelman a speedy recovery, for more reasons than one, but the timing of this injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for fantasy players. While it is a little easier to replace an injured running back as usually there is only one legit back up that will be thrust into the majority of the touches, at wide out there are so many options to touch the ball that choosing the right one for the long term is often a crapshoot.
Is it Danny Amendola? Is it Brandon LaFell? Will Gronk be better than he has been? What about Aaron Dobson? What we saw on Sunday was that Amendola was the guy, but remember last year LaFell had nine games of at least six targets and at least four receptions in all nine games after week 11 of the season.
Meanwhile, in Baltimore, Chris Givens and Crockett Gilmore scored touchdowns, but Kamar Aiken had 14 targets and seven receptions. Who do we choose to be the Steve Smith replacement that will get us real value moving forward? The decision isn’t as easy as you might think it is, despite what the numbers tell us.
These are just a few options of tough decisions that need to be made this week and beyond. But what we should be comfortable with is regardless of what happens there are still plenty of viable selections sitting on the waiver wire just waiting to find homes for the rest of the season.
Let’s take a look at some players who are owned in less than 35% of ESPN Leagues that can easily provide you with immediate and long-term value. Don’t worry, Yahoo & NFL site ownership numbers will be present, as will salary numbers for the upcoming Draftkings slate.
Terrance Williams (DAL): ESPN: 31.1; Yahoo: 35; NFL: 23; DK: 4.1
By all normal standards Terrance Williams has not lived up to the similar hype he had over the last few years. Some of that is due to being thrown into a role he isn’t used to when Dez Bryant went down in week 1 and of course due to the Quarterback play after Tony Romo broke his shoulder earlier in the year. Prior to the 2015 season Williams recorded 16 total receiving touchdowns including the playoffs that made him one of the more sought after sleeper picks later in drafts this year. As the #1 receiver with Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel as the QB, Williams only recorded two touchdowns both from Weeden and since then he only has 120 yards on eight receptions. Now that Tony Romo is expected to return this week and play against the Dolphins just in time for the team to turn the corner, Williams should offer a ton of value. The only game with Tony playing all four quarters, week 1, Williams had five receptions for 60 yards on eight targets, two of which coming from within the red zone. The Dolphins haven’t been bad against opposing wide outs but do rank in the bottom half of the league at 17th vs. the position. Miami has given up at least 125 yards receiving or a receiving TD in all but one game to opposing wide outs this season.
Doug Baldwin (SEA): 29.9; Yahoo: 31; NFL: 18.5; DK: 3.5
Would the real Doug Baldwin please stand up? With a 2014 campaign that saw nine games of at least six targets and three more games with at least five, Baldwin has failed to record either number five times this year. Against arguably one of the better defenses in the game (Arizona), Baldwin exploded for 10 targets, seven receptions, 134 yards and a score good for 26 fantasy points in normal PPR leagues. The week 9 Bye for the Seahawks clearly proved to be good for Baldwin and Russell Wilson who was able to feel comfortable throwing to his #1 receiver again and that should continue. The Seahawks have been reeling this season losing big games at home which is completely uncharacteristic of the ball club that went on quite a long streak of winning every home game over the last couple of years. In order to get back to the dominance they hope to they will need both Wilson and Baldwin to continue their torrid pace from last week. Something they get to do that this week against the 49ers who rank as the 8th worst defense against opposing WRs this year. The 9ers didn’t give up a TD to the spot in week 9 but did surrender 174 yards and 15 receptions something they have done three other times.
Jacob Tamme (ATL): ESPN: 24.8; Yahoo: 26; NFL: 4.5; DK: 3.6
Not Roddy White, not Devin Hester, nor Leonard Hankerson, but Jacob Tamme who is the #3 pass catcher on the Atlanta Falcons. Whodathunkit? Tamme has now had at least six receptions and double-digit fantasy points in three of the last five games making him one of the better tight ends on the board in that span. While the Falcons have been struggling on the offensive side of the ball as of late losing three of their last four games, Matt Ryan has been utilizing the tight end position a little bit more which has us thinking he will continue to do so. With Julio Jones being locked down a bit more by opposing defenses Ryan will need to find a security blanket and Tamme can fit that bill. Tamme gets a pretty solid match up this week as the Atlanta Falcons host the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are ranked 25th in the league against the position and have given up a touchdown to opposing tight ends in four straight weeks.
Jay Ajayi (MIA): ESPN: 12.9; Yahoo: 23; NFL: 2.2; DK: 3.2
If you haven’t been paying attention to the theme of the 2015 season, I am not sure what anyone can tell you. Of course that theme being, “injuries will happen to everyone, get their handcuff now and never look back”. With how many starting HBs that have gone down by injury this season and the amount of back ups that have gone from mediocrity to pure stardom should be the indication that Jay Ajayi is right around the corner of being one of the most sought after waiver wire pick ups. Of course this decision is purely a precautionary one but if Lamar Miller goes down for any reason you will have wished you made this decision sooner rather than later. Ajayi is a strong, decisive runner who hits the hole with ease and gets to the second level faster than anyone we’ve seen. Specifically a back up for now he won’t gain a ton of yards or provide a lot of value immediately but he is getting more touches each and every week and can provide long-term value for you. The Dolphins are facing the Cowboys who 31st in the league against opposing HBs, which does bode well for Ajayi if he can get the ball in his hands.
Mark Sanchez (PHI): ESPN: 2.4; Yahoo: 3; NFL: 0.5; DK: 5
It’s been almost three years since the infamous butt fumble, and I for one didn’t think I would ever be in a situation where I would be an advocate for Mark Sanchez. Didn’t that sound familiar? I literally wrote that line in the week 10 gold mine of 2014 and I am a bit shocked that I am even being given the opportunity to say that again. With the concussion to Sam Bradford last week Sanchez will at least be inserted into the starting QB spot for week 11 and luckily for him he has a pretty solid match up. When Mark was given the starting nod last year after injury to Nick Foles he shined recording six of his nine games with at least two passing touchdowns and had five games of at least 290 yards passing. While, Sanchez didn’t perform all that well once Bradford went down last week he did complete nearly 61% of his passes and save for the one mistake on the interception in the end zone he had taken the Eagles offense within scoring distance. The Eagles get the Bucs this week that have given up at least two touchdowns in five of their last six games and 300 or more yards in three of those contests. Oddly enough, Mark Sanchez could be the veteran presence behind center the team needs to consistently move the ball in a positive direction.