Normally our NHL expert, Josh Kay (@stopbuntingplz), would be doing today’s NHL write up, but he’s taking a leave of absence for a few weeks to attend to a family matter. We wish him well and hope he’s back soon. But until then we’ll have some other people filling in for our NHL DFS content. Today I’ll be taking a stab at a healthy slate of games, 11 to be exact.

My methodology is a little different than Josh’s so let me explain my process. I’m not nearly as familiar with the NHL as Josh is (of course, very few are more familiar with the NHL than Josh), so I use numbers to identify the best plays of the day. What I’ve done is take numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections and calculate how many DraftKings fantasy points each player is projected to score per game from here on out. I’ve then made my own adjustment for the quality of each player’s opponent. Then I see how far above or below average that projection is. I then compare that to how far above or below average the player’s price is. If the schedule-adjusted projection is further above average than the player’s price, then he’s a good value play and vice-versa.

Below I’ve got a discussion of some of the best matchups and stacks of the day and then rankings of individual players for cash games and rankings of stacks.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news tomorrow afternoon, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

It’s no secret that Buffalo is awful and picking on them is common practice in daily contests. Aside from the Sabres, the other great matchup of the day according to a mix of Corsi against and team save percentage is Calgary. They’re the only team remotely close to Buffalo in my matchup statistic, and they’re really not that close. But they are far ahead of the third best matchup of the day, Toronto. Past that the only other teams that are a well above average matchup for opposing skaters are Anaheim and Montreal. But we’ll primarily be picking on Buffalo and Calgary.

Winnipeg is the lucky team that draws Buffalo tonight, so how do we choose which Jets to play? A good place to start would be their top line that also serves as the three forwards for the Jets’ top power play unit, center Bryan Little ($5,500, C) with wingers Andrew Ladd ($6,100, LW) and Blake Wheeler ($6,400, RW). I’m fine stacking all three if you want to do so, but I’m not as high on Ladd as the others. Prior to making the matchup adjustment to the projections, Wheeler and Little had projections that were almost exactly as far above average as their price. However, Ladd’s price was much farther above average than his projection prior to adjusting for the good matchup. So I’ll probably roll with a Little/Wheeler stack.

If you want exposure to the Jets but want to save a little money, you can take a look at their second line, center Mark Scheifele ($4,200, C) with wingers Mathieu Perreault ($4,100, C) and Michael Frolik ($4,500, RW). Scheifele and Perreault grade out as the second and third best values at the center position, and Frolik grades out as the top value play at right wing. I’ll probably leave Perreault out of the stack because he plays on the blue line with the first PP unit while Scheifele and Frolik stay together on the second unit.

If you want to throw a defenseman into one of those stacks, throw in Dustin Byfuglien ($6,200, RW)  with Little/Wheeler and Jacob Trouba ($4,700, D) with Scheifele/Frolik.

Moving on to teams that aren’t playing Buffalo, let’s pick out a Rangers stack. Derek Stepan ($4,400, C) grades out as the top value play at his position both before and after you adjust for matchup, so let’s start there. Stepan centers New York’s second line with wingers Chris Kreider ($3,700, LW) and Martin St. Louis ($5,200, RW) who also grade out as good values on the wings. Stepan and St. Louis play together on the top PP unit while Kreider plays on the second unit. So I’ll probably go with Stepan/St. Louis along with Dan Boyle ($3,700, D). Boyle plays on the top PP unit with Stepan and St. Louis and leads the team in ice time on the power play. Prior to making any adjustment for the good matchup, Boyle graded out as the fourth best defensive value of the day.

The next best matchup is Anaheim’s matchup with Toronto. Ryan Getzlaf ($8,600, C) is the only one of the super expensive centers who grades out as an above average value after adjusting for schedule, so that might be a good place to spend big. He centers Anaheim’s top line, and his left winger, Patrick Maroon ($3,300, LW), grades out as a good value and also plays with Getzlaf on the top PP unit. If you want to throw a defenseman in with them, Sami Vatanen plays on the first PP unit with them and leads the team in PP ice time.

We can also find a few value stacks without just looking at the best matchups of the day. Because these guys don’t have great matchups I’d only use them in GPPs and avoid them in cash games whereas the guys with great matchups are options in both cash games and GPPs. As an example, Edmonton’s third line center Mark Arcobello ($2,600, C) and his left-winger David Perron ($4,400, LW) both grade out as top value plays at their position prior to adjusting for matchup (at Arizona). They still grade out as above average values once you adjust for matchup, just not elite values. Perron plays on the second PP unit, but Arcobello doesn’t get much PP time, so he’s not an option unless stacked with Perron.

If you want to get a little contrarion, I could get on board with a mini-Boston stack. Carl Soderberg ($4,100, C) grades out as the second best center value prior to adjusting for his tough matchup against Nashville. I say tough because DraftKings has Nashville rated as the toughest matchup for centers. But my matchup rating has Nashville as more of middle of the pack matchup as opposed to one of the worst. So I feel like Boston’s salaries may be adjusted a little too far downwards today. Soderberg centers Boston’s second line and plays the point on their first PP unit. His right-winger Loui Eriksson ($4,400, RW) also plays with him on that first PP unit, so I could get down with that stack. Just don’t invest too heavily in it.

Carolina and Toronto also have decent matchups, so I’ll quickly throw out a few stack options for them. With Carolina you could go with top line center Eric Staal ($5,300, C) and his left-winger Zach Boychuk ($2,500, LW) who also play together on the top PP unit. Andrej Sekera ($3,900, D) plays on the PP with them, so he can be stacked with them if you like. The entire Carolina second line plays together on the second PP unit, so they’re worth considering as well: Riley Nash ($2,900, C), Nathan Gerbe ($2,800, LW), and Elias Lindholm ($2,900, C). Full disclosure, I didn’t end up putting any Hurricanes in any of my lineups. And with Toronto, I really like Tyler Bozak ($5,000, C). I might pair him with his right-winger, Phil Kessel ($7,800, RW).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings:

Center:

1. Derek Stepan – $4,400 – New York Rangers

2. Bryan Little – $5,500 – Winnipeg Jets

3. Mark Scheifele – $4,200 – Winnipeg Jets

4. Ryan Getzlaf – $8,600 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks

5. Tyler Bozak – $5,000 – Toronto Maple Leafs

6. Eric Staal – $5,300 – Carolina Hurricanes

Winger:

1. Blake Wheeler – $6,400 – Winnipeg Jets

2. Martin St. Louis – $5,200 – New York Rangers

3. Michael Frolik – $4,500 – Winnipeg Jets

4. Patrick Maroon – $3,300 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks

5. David Perron – $4,400 – Edmonton Oilers

6. Phil Kessel – $7,800 – Toronto Maple Leafs

7. Henrik Zetterberg – $5,500 – Detroit Red Wings

8. Dustin Byfuglien – $6,200 – Winnipeg Jets

9. Zach Boychuk – $2,500 – Carolina Hurricanes

Defense:

1. Dan Boyle – $3,700 – New York Rangers

2. Sami Vatanen – $4,900 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks

3. Andrej Sekera – $3,900 – Carolina Hurricanes

4. Victor Hedman – $5,300 – Tampa Bay Lightning

5. Andre Benoit – $2,500 – Buffalo Sabres

Goalie:

1. Ondrej Pavalec – $6,500 – Winnipeg Jets

2. Jimmy Howard – $7,600 – Detroit Red Wings

3. Braden Holtby – $8,100 – Washington Capitals

4. Carey Price – $8,700 – Montreal Canadiens

GPP Stacks

1. Bryan Little/Blake Wheeler + Dustin Byfuglien or Andrew Ladd

2. Derek Stepan/Martin St. Louis + Dan Boyle

3. Ryan Getzlaf/Patrick Maroon + Sami Vatanen

4. Mark Scheifele/Michael Frolik + Jacob Trouba (Probable to play)

5. Tyler Bozak/Phil Kessel

6. Carl Soderberg/Loui Eriksson

7. Eric Staal/Zach Boychuk + Andrej Sekera

8. Mark Arcobello/David Perron

9. Riley Nash/Nathan Gerbe/Elias Lindholm