Tuesday was my first day writing up our NHL picks, and it went about as well as I could have hoped. I made five lineups and entered each of them into the big $2 GPP on DraftKings. I went small with my investment because even though I’ve played NHL DFS before, I’d always done so using the picks of our normal NHL expert, Josh Kay (@stopbuntingplz). I’ve used the same reseach method I used on Tuesday in other sports, but I was hesitant as to how it would apply to NHL. But the results were good. I had two lineups cash in the GPP, and I made my $10 back plus $5. I asked people what it would’ve taken to cash in cash games (50/50s), and it’s likely I would have cashed four of my five lineups had I entered them in cash games. For a first day, I’m pleased with those results.

In case you missed Tuesday’s article, let me quickly explain my process. I take numberfire.com’s rest of season projections and calculate what each player is projected to produce on a per-game basis for the rest of the year. Then I break up the players in action today by position and see how far above or below average their projected production is compared to the other players available at their position that day using z-scores, which is just a standardized number that tells you how far above or below average something is. Then I adjust the projection and z-score based on the quality of each player’s opponent that day. And then that schedule-adjusted projection is compared to how far above or below average a player’s price is. If the schedule-adjusted projection is further above average than the player’s price, then he’s a good value and vice-versa.

After the jump I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings. If you’d like an example of what is behind the pay wall below, you can read Tuesday’s post here.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news tomorrow afternoon, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

I adjust each player’s projection for quality of opponent using a number I derive myself that is a mix of Corsi against and team save percentage. It’s more Corsi against than save percentage, and no team playing today has a higher Corsi against than Toronto. And it’s really not that close. They’re goaltending is above average but not elite, so in my estimation they’re the best matchup of the day. And that’s why Carolina players show up as the best value plays at each position.

The problem with stacking Carolina players is that they’re pretty terrible at scoring goals. They’re third worst in goals per game played, but they’re essentially tied with Edmonton for the second worst mark in that statistic. To make matters worse, they’re without their top goal scorer right now, Jiri Tlusty. And the worst part may be that their top three forwards in points all play on different lines per Daily Faceoff.

The best value of any player today per my system is Nathan Gerbe ($2,900, W), so I’m going to build my Carolina stack around him. Gerbe plays left wing on Carolina’s top line with Eric Staal ($5,300, C) who is tied for the team lead in points among forwards. That pair also plays together on the top power play unit, so that’s the best bet I can figure if you want exposure to Carolina. Andrej Sekera ($3,900, D) grades out as the top defensive value play of the day, and he plays on the top PP unit with Staal/Gerbe. Throw him in the stack as well if you like. After making my lineups I had a little Gerbe and a little more Staal but not all that much.

I mentioned above that Carolina and Edmonton are basically in a tie for the second lowest number of goals scored per game, and those two teams have the best matchups of the day. Against San Jose, Edmonton has the second best matchup of the day, but it’s not much better that the matchup that Montreal, Anaheim and Pittsburgh have, so don’t feel obligated to use Oilers if you’re not comfortable with it. But should you choose to use the Oil, their top young studs and linemates Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,200, C) and Taylor Hall ($5,800, W) grade out as well above average values. I don’t like any Edmonton D-men, but I could see throwing in the third leg of their top line with them in a stack, Teddy Purcell ($3,300, W). I believe Hall and RNH are the players to which I have the most exposure.

Now quickly some stacks from those other teams with the best matchups.

First Montreal. David Desharnais ($3,900, C) and P.A. Parenteau ($3,700, W) grade as as the best values among Canadiens at their positions. They play on the third line together as well as Montreal’s second power play unit. Tom Gilbert ($3,200) plays on the second PP unit with them, but Gilbert doesn’t score much, so you don’t have to throw him in that stack.

For Anaheim I really like Ryan Getzlaf ($8,800, C) but have a hard time deciding which of his linemates to stack him with. Devante Smith-Pelly ($3,200, W) grades out as a better value than Rene Borque ($2,9o0, W), but Borque plays on the top power play unit with Getzlaf while Smith-Pelly plays on the second unit. I’ll be throwing in Sami Vatanen ($5,200, D) with Getzlaf and whatever winger I choose, and Vatanen plays on the top PP unit, so maybe going with Borque instead of DSP makes sense to stack the PP unit. I could also see a mini-stack with Andrew Cogliano ($3,300, C) and Jakob Silfverberg ($4,300, W), but I want Getzlaf.

And then Pittsburgh. I’d love Sidney Crosby at a reduced price if he were to go tonight, but that seems unlikely as of this writing. But assuming he doesn’t play, Patric Hornqvist ($6,900, W) looks like the best play for the Penguins. He plays on the second line with Brandon Sutter ($4,200, C), and those two play on the top power play unit with Evgeni Malkin, so Hornqvist/Sutter is your Pittsburgh stack. Of the two defensemen that play on the top PP unit, Kris Letang ($6,200, D) grades out as the much better value, so he’s your choice if you want to add a defenseman to Hornqvist/Sutter.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

Winger

Defense

Goalie

I’ve ranked a few backups below that aren’t likely to start, but you need to check the starting goalies on Daily Faceoff tomorrow afternoon. If you’re not going to have time to check closer to game time, just go with one of the guys that isn’t noted as a backup. That said, you still need to check to make sure regular starters are starting if possible.