Tuesday was a perfect example of how incredibly frustrating/random the NHL can be at times. The Tampa Bay Lightning at -190 was a massive road favorite and the Detroit Red Wings were -201 at home against the Florida Panthers who were on the second leg of a back-to-back.

It’s not just about Vegas, because Vegas lines in hockey are nothing but a general guideline, and not the somewhat gospel-ish way we use their lines in NFL and the NBA.

Steven Stamkos and Tyler Seguin both were held without points against extremely suspect defenses. The Sharks and Flyers, both teams that have been poor defensively, played a 2-1 game, while Pittsburgh apparently was more under the weather than anyone expected — eking out a 1-0 win over the injury riddled Devils.

So what does this all mean, surely chalk has bad days in all sports, but it’s happening enough to where we really need to rethink the way we approach GPPs. Obviously, an 85% – 15% cash game / GPP entry fee breakdown is advised, but at this point we need to consider the approach of doing the opposite of what we do in cash games, when we play GPPs — that or just stick to cash games.

All of this being said, I’m going somewhat chalky today in the teams/games that I select from, but I believe we need to be creative a bit here.

*Note* All referee stats are credit: @ScoutingTheRefs 

Top Games:

St. Louis Blues @ Nashville Predators – Start Time 8:00 PM

Referees:

Wes McCauley & Dan O’Rourke:

The referees in this game are notable because O’Rourke ranks here among referees:

• Goals per Game: 6.4 (4th) — NHL average – 5.3
• Power-plays per game: 4.2 (1st) — NHL average 3.3
• Penalties per game: 5.5 (2nd) — NHL average 4.4

Legacies to me are irrelevant in DFS because I only care about the here and now — for the most part. Right now, Martin Brodeur is really not very good, and he draws the start tonight for the Blues. So should we target the Nashville power-play? Well, the Predators are 0-for-18 on their last 18 (obviously) chances on the power-play, including an incredible, eye-gouging 1-for-41 on the power-play at home. Yes, the Predators power-play is operating at 2.4% efficiency at home — 23.5% on the road.

The Blues played last night in Chicago, falling 4-1, so they should be tired. This game can truly go a variety of different ways, but the referee presence, and that of Martin Brodeur make me think there will still be plenty of power-play opportunities and goals to be had. I feel comfortable banking on the Blues being focused, but unable to overcome a gargoyle net-minder between the pipes. Oh, and if there’s one thing that deteriorates the most in an older goaltender, it’s his anticipation and side-to-side movement abilities. This means there is a good chance that the power-play shots the Predators fire, will find the back of the net.

Recommendations: 

Roman Josi ( $5,400, D), Shea Weber ( $6,500, D). – cash games

Filip Forsberg ( $5,200, W), James Neal ( $5,500, W) – GPP & cash

Pekka Rinne ( $8,300, G) – GPP only (preferably stacked with Neal and Forsberg)

Buffalo Sabres @ Tampa Bay Lightning – Start Time 7:30 PM

Referees:

Kelly Sutherland & Frederik L’Cuyer 

• Both referees ranked well below average in power-plays per game and penalties per game

Obviously I’m never going to fade the leading goal per game team in the NHL, against a bad team, because of referees. No, this applies strictly and specifically to players like Anton Stralman ( $3,500 ) who we target solely because they are relatively cheap and on a good power-play. If Stralman were less expensive, I’d use him, but you see the consequences ( 0.5 against Buffalo last game).

Victor Hedman ( $5,700 ) is a complete no-brainer defenseman for cash, and in fact I’d use him over Roman Josi, and Shea Weber. He’s a great GPP target too because unlike the Predators, the Lightning power-play has shown strong signs of life at home — operating at a 29.8% clip (2nd best home PP% in the NHL). Expect the Bolts to do well even if they get limited chances.

Tyler Johnson ( $5,900 ), Ondrej Palat ( $5,000 ) and Nikita Kucherov ( $4,800 ) (SURPRISE!) is my recommended mid-range stack of the day for GPPs, while Johnson is once again a highly regarded cash game recommendation. As a Lightning fan, I love this line because they have speed and skill and absolutely can terrorize opponents that lack talented depth ( especially on the blue line ). Also, if you have read my articles this season, you know how much I love to pick on the Sabres 2nd line. It’s truly awful.

Steven Stamkos ( $8,500, C) is averaging 5.2 fantasy points per game at home, compared to 4.1 on the road. Stamkos is also averaging 3.69 shots per game at home, compared to 2.69 on the road. He’s a no-brainer in cash and a risky but tempting fade in GPPs, just in case the Johnson line goes absolutely insane. Consider Ryan Callahan ( $6,100 ) and Alex Killorn ( $4,500 ) guys you can stack with Stamkos in a GPP if you want to make multiple lineups.

Ben Bishop ( $7,900 ) is long overdue to record his first shutout. He’s a chalk cash game option, but a prudent GPP fade.

Dallas Stars @ Detroit Red Wings – Start Time – 7:30 PM

This game has all of the makings of a high scoring affair. The Red Wings have the leagues 5th best home power-play percentage at 25,9% and they get the benefit of referee Francis Charron‘s 6th ranked power-play’s per game mark at 3.7 per game. The Stars have been absolutely dreadful on defense, yielding the 6th most shots against per game, and the most goals per game. Jussi Rynnas will be in net tonight for Dallas. A 27-year-old making his 4th NHL appearance, Rynnas (according to the hockey database) has never eclipsed a save percentage of .914 in any season in the American Hockey League — playing for the Toronto Marlies.

I absolutely love a mini stack in GPPs and cash games, of Tomas Tatar ( $4,700 ) and Pavel Datsyuk ( $5,700 ), and Niklas Kronwall ( $4,200 ) for cash games and GPPs as well.

Gustav Nyquist ( $5,200 ), Johan Franzen ( $4,600 ) and Henrik Zetterberg ( $7,000 ) are an excellent stack as well. In theory you could go with Datsyuk and Nyquist in cash games, trying to get exposure to both the top lines for Detroit, while also giving yourself top power-play exposure. There’s so many great ways to go here tonight.

Others to Consider:

Mark Giordano – Defense – $6,100 – Calgary:

Sean Monahan / Jiri Hudler stack

Jeff Skinner / Eric Staal / Elias Lindholm Carolina GPP Stack

Christian Ehrhoff – Defense – $4,000 – Pittsburgh