Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: November 12, 2015
Welcome back to another season of NHL DFS! If you’re like me, you’ve waited all summer for this—the time to build NHL lineups and watch your favourite team play! It’s early in the season, so projections and data will be a work in progress until about mid-November. In the meantime, we’ll do our best to break down which players you should be targeting and which players you need to avoid completely.
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As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations.
Teams To Target
Let’s start with my favourite matchup of the night—the Nashville Predators hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs. Even though Toronto is coming off a road win against the Dallas Stars, they’re still a below-average team in almost every offensive category on the road. The Preds are coming off a SEVEN goal outburst against Ottawa, and although I don’t expect them to score seven tonight, they should be able to score at least four.
Let’s start with the forwards. The top line of Filip Forsberg ($5600), James Neal ($6300) and Mike Fisher ($4300) is the obvious choice. Nashville is an above-average possession team and the top line isn’t outrageously priced. If you want to move away from the top line, Colin Wilson ($3500) and Craig Smith ($4500) are two cheap options to look at.
On the blue line, any defenseman you go with is probably a good option. I’ll have a lot of Roman Josi ($6300) and Shea Weber ($5700) in my lineups, but if you can’t afford to roster one/both of them, Seth Jones ($4100) and Ryan Ellis ($3800) offer some great value.
As for goaltending, Pekka Rinne ($8000) will be highly owned and for good reason. Like I said earlier, the Leafs aren’t a good road team and don’t score many goals away from Air Canada Center. The O/U is set a 5.5 for this game, but I don’t see Toronto scoring more than one goal. Rinne is a set play if you want to use him.
My second favourite matchup of the night is the Boston Bruins hosting the Colorado Avalanche. To say the Avalanche are a bad puck possession team is an understatement. They’re terrible when it comes to CF% (43.4% 5v5), while the Bruins are a middle-of-the-pack team. Despite the Bruins giving up 3.21 goals/60, I still like them tonight because they’re at home and because their power play is on a whole other level.
The biggest problem with Boston is you can never stack a complete line because no line plays together for both five-on-five and on the power play. meaning you’ll have to mix and match or stack the top power play unit. For my money, I’ll stack the top power play unit. David Krejci ($5800) and Loui Eriksson ($5000) play together on the power play and five-on-five, but I’m really not crazy about Eriksson’s price. Patrice Bergeron ($6100) is always a great option, but I’m not a fan of stacking two C’s. Matt Beleskey ($3700) is a great salary relief option, but he isn’t seeing any time on the power play (see the problem with the Bruins). To make life simple, I’d go with Krejci and Eriksson and leave it at that.
On defense, Torey Krug ($5600) is the only option I really like tonight for the Bruins, but he’s had two consecutive “maintenance days” so it might be best to monitor his status throughout the day. Zdeno Chara ($4800) and Colin Miller ($3000) are options you can consider if you don’t want to worry about Krug. They both play on the second power play unit and together five-on-five. If I had to pick just one, Miller is the player I would go with.
My third favourite matchup of the night is the Philadelphia Flyers hosting the Washington Capitals. The Flyers are absolute trash right now. When they play, you stack against them. The total is set at five goals for this game, but it could very easily hit the over midway through the second period.
The one player I will do everything in my power to try and fit into my lineup is Alex Ovechkin ($9600). Ovi had a whopping 15 shots on goal last game against Detroit (seriously) but couldn’t find the back of the net. Tonight he won’t have that problem. He’s chasing Sergei Fedorov’s record for the most goals scored by a Russian player in the NHL and his next goal will give him the record. If last game was any indication, Ovi really wants that goal.
If you can’t afford Ovechkin, the second line of Nicklas Backstrom ($6800), Marcus Johansson ($4300) and Andre Burakovsky ($3300) is an option to consider. The play that stands out to me here is Burakovsky. He’s seeing time on the second power play unit with Johansson and his price tag is a bargain and a half. If you want to play Ovi but need salary relief, don’t be afraid to go with both, even if they don’t play together. There are more than enough goals to go around for everyone tonight.
In goal, Braden Holtby ($8000) is the option I’m likely to go with. He isn’t cheap, but he’s almost guaranteed a win here. Once again, it might not be easy to get him in your lineup, but if you can find a way to get it done, do it.
Other Matchups to Consider:
- Calgary at Tampa Bay: The Lightning haven’t been great to start the season, but Calgary is a below average puck possession team with terrible goaltending. Steven Stamkos ($7500) and company are options to consider if you want to go against the grain.
- Winnipeg at Dallas: The Stars are coming off a loss to the Leafs at home and will be looking to revenge that loss against the Jets tonight at home. Winnipeg is coming off a loss to the Wild on the road and it looks like Ondrej Pavelec ($6500) will get the start in goal. Dallas won’t get snake bit two games in a row. Tyler Seguin ($8900) and Jamie Benn ($8100) are options to consider.
- Vancouver at Ottawa: Vancouver’s top line had themselves a night Tuesday in Columbus and tonight they get an Ottawa team that gave up seven goals to the Predators. Jannik Hansen ($3300) is on the top line with both Daniel Sedin ($6500) and Henrik Sedin ($4800), making him an excellent bargain bin play. Use all three if you wish.
Player Rankings
Ranking are price sensitive
Forwards
- Leon Draisaitl–$3200—Edmonton Oilers
- Martin Hanzal–$4300—Arizona Coyotes
- David Krejci–$5800—Boston Bruins
- Nathan MacKinnon–$7400—Colorado Avalanche
- Tyler Seguin–$8900—Dallas Stars
- Patrice Bergeron–$6100—Boston Bruins
- Nicklas Backstrom–$6800—Washington Capitals
- Henrik Sedin–$4800—Vancouver Canucks
Wingers
- Jannik Hansen—RW–$3300—Vancouver Canucks
- Tobias Rieder—RW–$4000—Arizona Coyotes
- Patrick Kane—RW–$8300—Chicago Blackhawks
- James Neal—RW–$6300—Nashville Predators
- Nikolaj Ehlers—RW–$4800—Winnipeg Jets
- Mike Hoffman—LW–$4900—Ottawa Senators
- Taylor Hall—LW–$6600—Edmonton Oilers
- Alex Ovechkin—LW–$9600—Washington Capitals
- Daniel Sedin—LW—Vancouver Canucks
- Jamie Benn—LW—Dallas Stars
Defenseman
- Colton Parayko–$4100—St. Louis Blues
- Colin Miller–$3000—Boston Bruins
- Roman Josi–$6300—Nashville Predators
- Justin Faulk–$5600—Carolina Hurricanes
- John Klingberg–$5200—Dallas Stars
- Shea Weber–$5700—Nashville Predators
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson–$5200—Arizona Coyotes
- Torey Krug–$5600—Boston Bruins
Goalie
- Jake Allen–$7500—St. Louis Blues
- Linus Ullmark–$6200—Buffalo Sabres
- Henrik Lundqvist–$8100—New York Rangers
- Pekka Rinne–$8000—Nashville Predators
- Braden Holtby–$8000—Washington Capitals
- Ben Bishop–$7400—Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tuukka Rask–$7400—Boston Bruins
- Roberto Luongo–$7600—Florida Panthers
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