Welcome to the machine! As we head into the Christmas season, challenges are going to arise that most would not expect. There is still a relative amount of uncertainty and high amounts of volatility at times. The goal is always to delve through the abyss of numbers and circumstances. You would expect nothing less from The Fantasy Fix. When you get right down to it, there are several teams that seem to scream “obvious target.” However, there are some risk/reward type of scenarios and then ones to possibly run far away from.

As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations and let’s begin. 

Teams to Target

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Let’s look at the twelve game slate similar to the 13 gamer on Wednesday night. There were bound to be a ton of plays but so many fizzled before they ever got started. There were some constants but in most cases, if you were to eek out between 40-45 points, you were more than okay. Once you neared 50, that was high cashing material there.

Now, the reality is Friday night features a possibly higher scoring night. However, this all depends on the slate you play. If you choose the early slate, just understand the risks involved. There are all day, evening, early, and late slates at your disposal. We will get you ready for the big all day slate, but you can use these plays and tips in any of the other three choices.

The Dallas Stars are going to be highly owned as they face the Vancouver Canucks on Friday. Consider that they are one of the few teams to have three players over a point per game right now and two are on a pace for almost 120 points. Though I do not trust the goaltending here, both offenses should in theory be able to excel with their top lines. Consider both teams have put up over three goals a game in the last two to three weeks. It is again team defense that has been a little sketchy. Both penalty kills are just under 80% and that may be a sign to even try to dabble with Dallas line number two in a mini-stack. Keep an eye on who Vancouver’s second defensive pairing ultimately will be.

Do you try and even gauge what will happen between Columbus and Pittsburgh? This is a tough one as Columbus really has had an awful time late in games. It does come down to conditioning and this is a team that just falters late way too often. They gave up three third period goals earlier in the week to San Jose. It happened twice against the Rangers early in the year also. Though Sergei Bobrovsky has played much better of late, the problem is injuries to two of their stay at home defenseman have now again caused a litany of problems. This may mean a benefit for either one of Pittsburgh’s top lines. Yes, Columbus has firepower but how much energy will their forwards have to expend to cover the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin? This is a great question. Consider power play unit one in some capacity for Pittsburgh. It could be a good idea.

Calgary and Arizona is another wild game. The Coyotes are a team that will be facing a Flames team that only kills 72.1% of their man disadvantages. Though Arizona is only around 15% on the power play, they should have a lot of chances with the first power play unit. Martin Hanzal, Anthony Duclair, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson should have some open space to work with as Calgary’s box always seems to have holes lately. As for Arizona, can they stop the Flames top line? It could be a game that very well goes back and forth.

Edmonton line one still has to be played but I also consider trying a double center mini stack with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg in some cash games at the very least. The Oilers first line cheap mini may be more suitable for a lower risk GPP. Detroit may finally be starting to get the offense back in gear a little bit. Dylan Larkin is still doing Larkin things but even he has slid a tiny bit from his early season start. Mike Green is the one defensive option as Niklas Kronwall really just has not impressed at all. See who plays in Detroit first but if it is Petr Mrazek, that may be worth a GPP play.

Rolling The Dice

Buffalo and Carolina is almost a game where few DFS players may take the risk. This is a high one! Nobody knows what to expect from normally low scoring teams. The problem is Buffalo is averaging less than two goals a game at home and Carolina is on the road. In a game where the immovable object meets the force of some futility, even Vegas is confused a bit. It was a game very close to being dropped to 4 1/2 for the over/under. That would have been the first time this year. As a matter of fact, check back often because a slight possibility exists that it could still happen.

Two more games from the early slate could be ridiculous rolls of the dice. Nashville and Philadelphia could be high scoring all over the place or a low scoring dud. The Predators and Flyers have been meandering around 75% of late on their penalty kills (near 80% on the season). However, both of these teams cannot score in their last five games (six goals each). Ouch! That is an average of…you can figure it out. That being said, these afternoon games on “Black Friday” can truly be an exercise in crazy.

Speaking of Minnesota and Winnipeg, if you want to stack the second Minnesota line and first Winnipeg line, you may want to here. Both teams can score three or more goals on each other and they also know the specter of playing a lot over the next couple weeks. Vegas odds say this game could easily go over based on the last game where Winnipeg had chances to come back on a tired Minnesota team late.

Okay, let’s quickly look at some rankings.

Player Rankings

Ranking are price sensitive

 Centers

1. Leon Draisaitl–$4100—Edmonton Oilers
2. Frans Nielsen–$5000–New York Islanders
3. Rickard Rakell — $3400 — Anaheim Ducks
4. Boone Jenner–$4500–Columbus Blue Jackets
5. Evgeni Malkin–$7300—Pittsburgh Penguins
6. Martin Hanzal — $4500– Arizona Coyotes
7. Sean Monahan–$5600—Calgary Flames
8. Tyler Seguin –$9000- Dallas Stars
9. William Karlsson –$2700—Columbus Blue Jackets

Wingers

1. Patrick Kane—LW–$8500—Chicago Blackhawks
2. Dale Weise—RW–$3800—Montreal Canadiens
3. Thomas Vanek–LW–$5200–Minnesota Wild
4. Adam Henrique—LW–$4800—New Jersey Devils
5. Daniel Sedin–LW–$6800–Vancouver Canucks
6. Taylor Hall–LW–$6900-Edmonton Oilers
7. Brad Marchand—LW–$5400—Montreal Canadiens
8. Jaromir Jagr—RW–$5500—Florida Panthers
9. Alex Ovechkin — LW–$9400–Washington Capitals
10. Phil Kessel — RW — $7300 — Pittsburgh Penguins

Defenseman

1. John Klingberg–$5900—Dallas Stars
2. Travis Hamonic—$3800—New York Islanders
3. P.K. Subban–$6400—Montreal Canadiens
4. Roman Josi–$6300—Nashville Predators
5. Justin Faulk – $5800– Carolina Hurricanes
6. David Savard – $3600 – Columbus Blue Jackets
7. Oscar Klefbom – $4000 – Edmonton Oilers
8. Colin Miller— $3100– Boston Bruins

Goalie

1. Petr Mrazek–$7000–Detroit Red Wings
2. Mike Condon — $7500 — Montreal Canadiens
3. Jaroslav Halak — $7400 — New York Islanders
4. Cam Ward–$6400—Carolina Hurricanes
5. Tuukka Rask — $7600 — Boston Bruins
6. Sergei Bobrovsky — $7000 — Columbus Blue Jackets

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