Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: October 23, 2015
Welcome back to another season of NHL DFS! If you’re like me, you’ve waited all summer for this—the time to build NHL lineups and watch your favourite team play! It’s early in the season, so projections and data will be a work in progress until about mid-November. In the meantime, we’ll do our best to break down which players you should be targeting and which players you need to avoid completely.
As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations.
Teams To Target
Let’s start with the most obvious matchup of the night—the Buffalo Sabres hosting my Montreal Canadiens. There’s no hotter team in the NHL right now than Montreal. They’re averaging 3.29 G/GP (5th) while allowing 1.00 GA/GP (1st). Buffalo may be off to a better start than last season, but they still remain a team to target, especially tonight.
For Montreal, the top line of Max Pacioretty ($7600), Tomas Plekanec ($6000) and Brendan Gallagher ($5300) is the way to go. They’ve totaled five goals as a line in seven games and should continue to be the Habs best line moving forward. If the price is too much for you to swallow, the second line of Alexander Semin ($3800), Alex Galchenyuk ($4600) and Lars Eller ($3300) has totaled four goals in seven games and has been red hot since the beginning of training camp. For my money, I’d go with the top line as my main stack, but I wouldn’t argue against you if you went with the second option.
On defense, P.K Subban ($5900) is the obvious play of the night, but it will cost you a pretty penny to get him into your lineup. His partner Andrei Markov ($4500) is more reasonably priced, so that’s where I’d spend my money.
With Carey Price confirmed to have the night off, Mike Condon ($7200) will be making his second start of the season. He’s not Carey Price expensive, but his price is still a tad too high for my liking. Regardless of that, he’s got an excellent chance of picking up his second win of the year, and I’ll probably roster him in a few of my lineups.
The second best matchup of the night belongs to the Boston Bruins and New York Islanders. When two top-three scoring teams meet, it’s safe to say there will probably be a lot of goals. Stacking either team upfront is a great idea, but the Bruins have given up just over four goals-per-game since the start of the season, so I’ll go with the New York Islanders in this one.
The top line of John Tavares ($8200), Anders Lee ($4900) and Ryan Strome ($4600) are always a great option, but tonight I’m feeling the second line a lot more. Patrice Bergeron ($5900) is one of the best at shutting down opposing team’s forwards, and although I don’t think he alone will be able to contain the top line, I don’t expect Tavares and company to hit their price values tonight. Not to mention, DraftKings has the entire top line listed at center, making it impossible to stack the entire line. For those two reasons, I’m more likely to go with Frans Nielsen ($4300) and Kyle Okposo ($6000). The frustrating part about that duo is they don’t play on the power play together, but tonight that won’t make a difference. There should be enough goals in this game to get everyone involved.
On the blueline, Nick Leddy ($3300) and Johnny Boychuk ($5100) are excellent options, but I’m more likely to go with Marek Zidlicky ($3200). He plays on the top power play unit and his price tag is very appealing. Again, it’s not ideal if you go with Nielsen/Okposo, but enough goals will be scored to make everyone happy.
On the flip side, Boston also has a very good matchup. With Bergeron and Brad Marchand ($4600) likely matching up with the Isles top line, the second line of Jimmy Hayes ($4400), David Krejci ($5300) and David Pastrnak ($4500) is where I’d be spending my money. Just like the Islanders, their power play lines are a mess; so if you want to get some exposure to both lines and the top power play unit, don’t be afraid to stack Krejci/Marchland with Torey Krug ($5200) to get the most for your money. The Boston power play has been on fire since the beginning of the season (38.1%), so I definitely want to get as much exposure as possible to that top unit.
The final matchups of the night I really like belongs to the Washington Capitals and the Edmonton Oilers. Many people will be on Washington tonight, but I wouldn’t look pass the Oilers if you want to go a different route. The Caps and Oilers have given up the same amount of goals-per-game (2.43 GA/GP), but Washington has been the better scoring team, averaging 3.8 G/GP in five games (Edmonton 2.14 G/GP in seven games).
Winger Alex Ovechkin ($9200) comes into tonight as the most expensive option, but he’s definitely earned his salary. The entire top line of Ovechekin, Evgeny Kuznetsov ($5100) and T.J. Oshie ($5700) is slightly too expensive for my liking, but they just finished destroying the Calgary Flames and could do the same to Edmonton. If you want to go a different route, the second line of Nicklas Backstrom ($6500), Marcus Johansson ($4600) and Justin Williams ($4300) is an option. If I had to stack just two players from that line I’d probably go with Backstrom/Johansson. The pair also plays on the top power play unit and should get away from Edmonton’s top defensive pairing (LOL!).
On the back end, John Carlson ($6300) is a tad too expensive for me to roster, but I wouldn’t argue against anyone who wants to pay up for him. He plays on the top power play unit and is averaged just under five FPPG.
On the other side of the ice, Edmonton has some options I’ll definitely be looking at. Taylor Hall ($6400) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4600) are always good options any time they play, but over the last few games, the second line has provided fantasy owners with the most value. A mini-stack of Connor McDavid ($5400) and Nail Yakupov ($4100) will cost you only $9500 and provide some decent salary relief to stack some higher end talent.
On defense, the two options I would consider are Justin Schultz ($3600) and Andrej Sekera ($2800). Both players haven’t put up a ton of points so far this season, but they are ridiculously cheap and offer a tremendous amount of upside, especially Sekera.
Quick Note: Detroit has a very favorable matchup on the road against the Flames. Both Henrik Zetterberg ($6900) and Justin Abdelkader ($4800) are options to consider.
Player Rankings
Rankings are price sensitive
Forwards
- Connor McDavid–$5400—Edmonton Oilers
- Henrik Zetterberg–$6900—Detroit Red Wings
- John Tavares–$8200—New York Islanders
- Alex Galchenyuk–$4600—Montreal Canadiens
- Anders Lee–$4900—New York Islanders
- Patrice Bergeron–$5900—Boston Bruins
- Nicklas Backstrom–$6500—Washington Capitals
- Tomas Plekanec–$6000—Montreal Canadiens
Wingers
- Alexander Semin—RW–$3800—Montreal Canadiens
- Nail Yakupov—RW–$4100—Edmonton Oilers
- Max Pacioretty—LW–$7600—Montreal Canadiens
- Justin Abdelkader—LW–$4800—Detroit Red Wings
- Alex Ovechkin—LW–$9200—Washington Capitals
- Kyle Okposo—RW–$6000—New York Islanders
- Brad Marchand—LW–$4600—Boston Bruins
- Taylor Hall—LW–$6400—Edmonton Oilers
Defenseman
- Andrej Sekera–$2800—Edmonton Oilers
- P.K Subban–$5900—Montreal Canadiens
- Andrei Markov–$4500—Montreal Canadiens
- Justin Faulk–$5400—Caroline Hurricanes
- John Carlson–$6300—Washington Capitals
- Torey Krug–$5200—Boston Bruins
- Marek Zidlicky–$3200—New York Islanders
- Mark Giordano–$5600—Calgary Flames
Goalie
- Mike Condon–$7200—Montreal Canadies
- Jimmy Howard–$6900—Detroit Red Wings
- Jhonas Enroth*–$6800—Los Angeles Kings